36.5 Percent of Americans Live in a Democratic Trifecta, 41.8 Percent Live in a Republican Trifecta

By Joel Williams

At the start of 2022, 36.5% (120 million) of Americans lived in a state with a Democratic trifecta, while 41.8% (137 million) lived in a state with a Republican trifecta. The other 71 million Americans lived in a state with a divided government.

A state government trifecta is a term to describe a single-party government when one political party holds the governorship and majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. At the start of 2022, there were 38 trifectas—15 Democratic and 23 Republican.

Virginia’s will change from a Democratic trifecta to a state with a divided government when legislators and Governor-elect Glenn Youngkin (R) are sworn into office on Jan. 12. In the 2021 elections, Republicans won control of the Virginia House of Delegates and the governor’s office, currently held by Democrat Ralph Northam. Democrats still control the Virginia State Senate.

When this happens, 33.9 percent of Americans (112 million) will live in a state with a Democratic trifecta, 41.8 percent (137 million) will live in a state with a Republican trifecta, and 24.3 percent (78 million) will live in a state with divided government.

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This article was published in The Center Square and is reproduced with permission.

Tucson Sets Homicide Record

By Craig J. Cantoni

Arizona Daily Star January 9, 2021: A record-breaking year of homicides,Tucson police combat gun violence

The headline referenced above is about my hometown of Tucson setting a record for homicides in 2021:  93 homicides for a city of 542,629 people.  That comes to one homicide for every 5,834 people.  (Another half-million people live in the metro area outside of the city.)

By contrast, New York City had one homicide for every 16,969 people.

The article that comes with the headline equates homicides with gun violence, as if murder by gun is a new phenomenon and that people had been killing each other with lances in previous years.

The article continues: “Hall [the chief of police] also said it is clear that the homicides disproportionately impacted minority communities. According to Hall, in Tucson in 2021, 26% of the victims were Black, 53% were Latino and 2% were Native American.”

The chief didn’t say that blacks are only 5.2% of the city’s population, and Latinos, 43.6%.  This means that the murder rate for blacks is five times higher than their representation in the city’s population. Curiously, the chief did not give the race, color, or ethnicity of the perpetrators.  Wouldn’t it be helpful to know who is killing so many blacks?  White supremacists?  Jews?  Asians?  Scandinavians?  Other blacks?

It also would be helpful to know how many murders are due to drug dealing, drug addiction, and/or gang activity.

By the way, years ago when I had a column in the Arizona Republic, I was invited to a presentation by the Scottsdale Police Department gang squad.  They said that young male emigrants from Mexico who emigrated alone without family members were committing a disproportionate percentage of murders and other crimes in metro Phoenix, as part of a gang initiation rite.  That had a familiar ring to this Italian because young male Italian immigrants used to commit crimes in New York and other big cities to become made-men in the Mafia. I wonder if it’s verboten today to make such points.

Biden’s Mandate Goes to The Supreme Court

By Neland Nobel

President Joe Biden, or more likely his handlers that pull the strings, imposed a controversial mandate on large and small employers to force vaccination for the Wuhan virus. Having been unable to get legislation through Congress, he decided to use Executive edict, thereby essentially writing legislation, which is the job of Congress.

This Presidential overreach has now gone before the Supreme Court and early indications are that it is not going well for the Administration.

The conservative majority on the court seems skeptical that law can essentially be written by Biden himself, avoiding Congress, by ordering OSHA, an agency that is a regulatory body for workplace safety, to enforce a medical mandate. It also seems that at least some justices do not believe OSHA has the power, under current law, to be imposing a mandate for vaccinations.

It is also becoming increasingly clear, to even those with little medical training, that those individuals who have been vaccinated both get and spread the virus. If that is true, what is the purpose of a mandate, even if the President has the authority to impose one? Listening to some of the comments from the judges, it is not clear they are well informed on a variety of virus issues. Some dialogue indicated that some were blissfully unaware that the vaccinated were spreading and becoming ill. Some unvaccinated individuals have already had the virus, and thus have more robust protection than vaccinated people. But the government only seems to recognize antibodies and T cells that result from vaccines and ignore those same cells and immune system mechanisms if created naturally. This is absurd.

There appears to be no logical medical reason or legal authority for imposing such a mandate. Rather it is largely a political move to satisfy the Democrat Party base, which ran on the lofty proposition that they could control the virus because they “had a plan” and the other guy supposedly did not. How is that working for ya?

Well, the plan is failing on a number of levels and it is obvious to anyone who is still reasonably alert. It is once again a central planning hammer, of one size, fits all medicine. The medical profession has moved from treating the patient to groveling before public health officials and politicians. 

Beyond the profound constitutional questions of avoiding the Congress and assuming police powers that rightfully belong to the states, the mandate has created additional collateral damage that goes well beyond violating the function of the Executive under the Constitution. Besides a serious blow to medical ethics,  they have recruited corporations to violate basic rights instead of the government doing it directly. And it would seem that some corporations, many highly beholden for subsidies and bailouts, are more than willing to play along with the attack on liberty.

Mandates and their enforcement violate personal liberty and the right to medical privacy. It introduces the question: how far into employee private affairs can an employer go, as a condition of employment? Since the vaccines do not stop the transmission of the virus to others, it is hard to argue a private mandate is in the general health interest of the workforce. However, it could be argued that vaccines reduce the severity and therefore the chance, and expense, of hospitalization. Since private companies subsidize healthcare and are concerned about a fully functioning workforce, they would have some legitimate interest in reducing potential health costs and absenteeism.

How far can you go in that direction? Smoking increases potential health care costs. So do drinking, bad driving,  a bad diet, and abortions. Does a company have a right to dictate these kinds of personal choices to employees? Where did my body, my life go to? Do you mean a society that endorses the idea that minors can undergo sex-change operations without parental consultation because “we all have personal autonomy with our bodies”, will allow employees to have private choices circumscribed by employers because it might reduce potential costs? Are we now serfs living on the manor, subject to the rules of the prince?

What if the vaccines are shown to have serious side effects that show up in the future? May an employee, forced by the condition of employment to take an experimental drug, sue the employer for damages? Should employers even be interfering in lifestyle and medical questions like this? Perhaps in the form of incentives such as gym memberships or reduced health insurance premium payments, they might wish to incentivize their workforce towards certain behaviors. But mandates, that if violated, result in termination?

Moreover, vaccines are not the ONLY way to reduce the severity of the virus and potential cost. Could employers demand that certain medications and therapeutics be taken by employees because taking them reduces the severity and the chance of hospitalization? Could you imagine Bank of America mandating that ivermectin be taken if an employee develops Covid, because it has been shown to reduce the severity, and thereby likely reduce costs? There would be justifiable outrage. Medication is a choice that should be made by the patient and his doctor.

It has also demonstrated that the Federal Government, by providing payments to medical companies and others, can use fear of financial retribution to coerce private companies to do their bidding. It can do this to defense contractors and others with direct contact with the Federal Government. In fact, since most large companies and universities, and even local schools receive at least some funding from the Federal Government, this use of financial intimidation sets another ugly precedent. That which the Federal government subsidizes, it should control.

Some of our corporations have now snuggled into bed with the Federal Government, such as the auto companies, airlines, and the big banks, all of which received bailouts of one form or another, that the relationship would likely bring a gleam to the eye of Benito Mussolini.

Such a wide range of medical companies may receive Medicare or Medicaid payments, it would seem to include the entire industry. Does it follow that this extends to employees who are not officers in the corporation? Does it extend to patients?

How else can one explain, for example, the Mayo Clinic dismissing 700 nurses, during a huge surge in the pandemic with the rapid spread of the Omicron variant? Could it be because they might get Medicare money, research money, and the like? It seems illogical, and just plain stupid, to fire medical workers when you have a surge in critically ill patients to care for. That is certainly not putting the patient’s interest first. It is putting money and the government first. This has tarnished the Mayo Clinic’s reputation with both its staff and its clients. In addition, imagine the cost that must be absorbed to re-hire and train new nurses up to the superior standards found at the Mayo clinic. Who eats those costs?

And, it begs this question: why do so many highly trained medical personnel choose not to be vaccinated?

Likewise firing military personnel when we face significant challenges from China, Russia, and Iran hardly seems the right thing to do to enhance combat readiness. However here, the government has more authority because they run the armed services, one of the few real responsibilities given to the Federal government by the Constitution. In addition, people voluntarily serve and agree to certain rules. That said, there are multiple examples now, of Naval ships having to abort their missions and stay in port because their crew of 100% vaccinated sailors are experiencing an outbreak of the virus. Just because you might have the power to coerce things in the military does not necessarily mean it is the correct policy.

Biden has repeatedly divided the country by attacking those who have chosen not to vaccinate, some on religious grounds, some on medical grounds, and many who have already had the virus, and thus have protection more thorough and longer-lasting than offered by the vaccine. He repeats the big lie that the unvaccinated are the cause of the continuation of the pandemic.

This is one of those rare occasions where the failure of a medical procedure is blamed on those who did not have it. You would think at some point the Administration would see the sheer idiocy of their policies. But, that may be wishful thinking.

We certainly hope the Supreme Court will block the Administration from further unconstitutional edicts, but our worry is they can’t entirely stop the Administration from wreaking damage on schools, universities, private companies, and others, fearful that money, if not law, will rule.

Youth Depression, Suicide Increasing During Pandemic Response

By Kerry McDonald

As data on the unintended consequences of pandemic policy becomes gloomier, policy makers are beginning to acknowledge tradeoffs.

Government policies meant to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic have resulted in unintended consequences that threaten lives—including, tragically, the lives of young people who are generally spared from the worst effects of COVID-19.

School closures, stay-at-home orders, and shutdowns of businesses deemed “non-essential” are contributing to surging rates of depression and suicide among young people, as well as rising incidences of drug overdoses and related deaths.

The New York Times reported this week that an alarming increase in student suicides has prompted schools in Las Vegas to move quickly to reopen schools for in-person learning. In the Clark County, Nevada school district, 18 students took their lives during the nine months of school closures, which is double the number of students who committed suicide in the district in all of 2019. The youngest child was just nine years old.

According to the Times: “One student left a note saying he had nothing to look forward to.”

Youth despair amid lockdowns and related public health orders appears to be worsening. While US aggregate suicide data for 2020 won’t be available for a couple of years, due to reporting lags, state and county-level data reveal dismal trends. In Pima County, Arizona suicides were up 67 percent in 2020 compared to the previous year for children ages 12 to 17, and statewide childhood suicides had also increased since 2019. West Virginia has seen a spike in student suicide attempts during the pandemic. Parts of Wisconsin reported skyrocketing suicide rates among young people in 2020, while hospitals in Texas and North Carolina are seeing more young suicidal patients.

CDC data show a 24 percent increase in emergency room mental health visits for children ages 5 to 11, compared to 2019. Among adolescents ages 12 to 17, that increase is 31 percent. Last summer, the CDC reported that one in four young adults had contemplated suicide in the previous month.

Childhood and adolescent mental health has been deteriorating over the past decade, with youth depression and suicide rates climbing. But the isolation and hopelessness brought on by the pandemic response has exacerbated this trend. Earlier this month, a high school student and football star in Illinois, who had struggled previously with depression, committed suicide. His father says that his son’s “depression worsened significantly after Covid hit.”

Another high schooler and football player in Maine, Spencer Smith, took his own life last month after leaving a note saying that he felt locked in his house and the peer separation with remote learning was too much for him to bear any longer. “The kids need their peers more than ever now,” his father, Jay Smith, said. “They need face-to-face contact so they can let their emotions out.”

Some researchers recognized early on in the pandemic that there would be significant unintended consequences of lockdowns and government orders, warning of high mental health costs and other declines in public health. “The COVID-19 crisis may increase suicide rates during and after the pandemic,” noted a June 2020 paper in QJM: An International Journal of Medicine. “Mental health consequences of the COVID-19 crisis including suicidal behavior are likely to be present for a long time and peak later than the actual pandemic.”

Later, the authors of the Great Barrington Declaration, a document that urges a “focused protection” response to COVID-19 rather than universally restrictive pandemic policies, explained that public health policy must look at all aspects of public health—not just one virus and not just near-term effects.

Harvard University biostatistician, Martin Kulldorff, told The Wall Street Journal that “you can’t just look at COVID, you have to look holistically at health and consider the collateral damage.” One of the authors of the Great Barrington Declaration, Kulldorff adds: “You can’t just look short-term.”

What Kulldorff and other public health researchers expose is the fact that there are tradeoffs to any policy.If it saves just one life,” a mantra echoed during the COVID response as a rallying cry for lockdowns, fails to acknowledge the lives damaged or lost due to these lockdown policies. Lockdown harms and deaths are as real as COVID harms and deaths and should be taken seriously when considering a holistic pandemic response.

Economists scrutinize tradeoffs, and many have been highlighting COVID-related tradeoffs since last spring. As FEE’s Antony Davies and James Harrigan wrote in April: “Regardless of whether we acknowledge them, tradeoffs exist. And acknowledging tradeoffs is an important part of constructing sound policy.”

This basic economic principle was beautifully articulated by Henry Hazlitt in his classic book, Economics in One Lesson:

The art of economics consists in looking not merely at the immediate but at the longer effects of any act or policy; it consists in tracing the consequences of that policy not merely for one group but for all groups.

Nine-tenths of the economic fallacies that are working such dreadful harm in the world today are the result of ignoring this lesson. Those fallacies all stem from one of two central fallacies, or both: that of looking only at the immediate consequences of an act or proposal, and that of looking at the consequences only for a particular group to the neglect of other groups.

As data on the unintended consequences of pandemic policy becomes gloomier, policy makers are beginning to acknowledge tradeoffs. School reopenings in Las Vegas are one positive sign of this policy shift, but more needs to be done to loosen harmful pandemic restrictions and allow for social and economic life to rebound.

The justification for the widespread lockdowns and pandemic restrictions enacted since last spring was to save lives, but it’s becoming increasingly clear that these mandatory measures are costing lives and may be ineffective at slowing the spread of the coronavirus.

This is particularly important now as more research shows that the harms of lockdowns and related policies may outweigh their benefits. A new peer-reviewed study in the European Journal of Clinical Investigation finds that restrictive, mandatory policies may not be any more effective at controlling the spread of the coronavirus than more voluntary measures.

“We do not question the role of all public health interventions, or of coordinated communications about the epidemic, but we fail to find an additional benefit of stay-at-home orders and business closures,” the researchers conclude.

There is no perfect policy response to a pandemic, but acknowledging tradeoffs, examining consequences across groups and over time, and advocating for a more voluntary, decentralized approach can minimize human costs and maximize overall health and well-being.

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This article is reprinted with permission from FEE, Foundation for Economic Education.

Arizona ‘election bible’ Stalls as Ducey Refuses to Sign Unfinished Work

By Elizabeth Troutman

Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey will not take action in the dispute over a new Election Procedures Manual due to the lack of agreement between Attorney General Mark Brnovich and Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, Ducey said in a letter.

Hobbs submitted the 2021 version of the manual for approval on Oct. 1, 2021. Brnovich submitted his legal review of the EPM to Hobbs’ office on Dec 9, 2021, requiring several sections to be struck before he would approve the manual.

Brnovich said several provisions are inconsistent with state law, potentially exposing election officials to criminal charges.

“As Arizona’s Chief Legal Officer, I have a responsibility to assure that the EPM conforms to the law. As a reminder, election officials who violate its provisions (which are hundreds of pages long) are guilty of a class 2 misdemeanor,” Brnovich said in a Dec. 10 letter. “Through the red-lined document provided to you yesterday, I have provided clear direction on what changes need to be made to assure the EPM does not unnecessarily expose election officials and workers to criminal penalties.”

Some of Brnovich’s objections concerned how the two election integrity bills passed in the 2021 Legislative Session should be carried out.

The EPM would allow voters to cast ballots in precincts they do not live in. Hobbs said no statutory provision requires the current out-of-precinct policy, referencing the U.S Supreme Court’s decision in Brnovich v. DNC.

Hobbs said the lawsuit, which Brnovich won, only addressed the precinct requirement in the elections manual, not in the statute. As Hobbs is responsible for revising the manual every odd-numbered year, she argued she could change the out-of-precinct provision.

“General Brnovich has been a national leader on election integrity, most recently winning at the U.S. Supreme Court in Brnovich v. DNC. Our office cannot approve an Elections Procedures Manual unless it is consistent with Arizona law,” Katie Connor, spokesperson for the AGO, told The Center Square. “We decline to comment further because of the unprecedented bar complaints filed against our office.”

Hobbs said Brnovich’s suggestions would create inconsistent procedures and leave gaps in election procedures.

“In total, your demands slash close to a third of the Manual,” Hobbs said in a letter.

As the Dec. 31 deadline for the EPM has passed without Brnovich’s approval, Ducey cannot approve.

“The governor believes election integrity is paramount,” the letter from Ducey’s general counsel said. “An accurate and updated EPM ensures both consistency throughout our 15 counties and predictability for our electorate. However, given that the EPM carries with it the force of law, the first objective must always be compliance with the law by ensuring that the executive branch is not straying into the responsibilities of the legislature.”

The letter said the governor’s office was encouraged to see new security and ballot chain-of-custody procedures in the 2021 EPM draft, written by Hobbs in consultation with county elections officials statewide and after seeking feedback from the public.

The governor’s office encouraged the legislature to address policy matters that exist as a result of the 2021 EPM’s inability to pass in order to secure election integrity and support local election officials.

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This article was first published in The Center Square and is reproduced with permission.

American Traitors: Academics Working for China

By Gordon Chang

It took a federal jury in Boston less than three hours to return guilty verdicts on all six felony counts against Charles Lieber, the former chair of Harvard University’s Department of Chemistry and Chemical Biology.

Lieber, “one of the country’s top research chemists” according to the New York Times, lied to the FBI about his participation in Beijing’s Thousand Talents Program, did not pay income tax on money from Chinese sources, and failed to report his Chinese bank account to the Internal Revenue Service.

The case against the Harvard academic was airtight. Nonetheless, members of America’s academic elite are up in arms that the Department of Justice prosecuted Lieber, and many are campaigning against law enforcement efforts.

China’s regime has bought America’s academic community and turned it against America.

“The conviction of Lieber is very good news,” Kerry Gershaneck, the author of Political Warfare: Strategies for Combating China’s Plan to “Win Without Fighting” and a professor in Taiwan, tells Gatestone. “This case is only the tip of the iceberg in terms of what needs to be done by the U.S. government to penetrate and prosecute China’s co-option of America’s academia.”

Justice did not go after Lieber for espionage or intellectual property theft. Instead, it hit him with relatively minor charges in order to obtain convictions. Yet make no mistake: Lieber’s activities were deeply injurious to the United States. The Harvard professor recruited American talent to work in China. In 2011, Lieber had agreed to become a “strategic scientist” at the Wuhan University of Technology and consequently a part of the Thousand Talents Program, an effort to attract foreign specialists for Beijing.

“While working on the Communist Party’s payroll, Lieber was in a perfect position to spot and assess potential vulnerable students and faculty for China to recruit,” says Gershaneck.

For his efforts, Beijing rewarded Lieber handsomely: $50,000 a month, among other payments.

As Charles Burton, once a professor at Brock University and now a leading expert on China’s infiltration of Canada, tells Gatestone, “Scientists around the world, identified as leaders in areas of advanced research that are strategic priorities, are targeted by a well-funded sophisticated engagement that plays on their vanity, naiveté, and greed.”

China apparently appealed not only to Lieber’s greed but also to his vanity. Before conviction, the now-disgraced scientist told the FBI that he collaborated with China to increase his prospects of gaining Chinese support for winning a Nobel Prize.

Unfortunately, China’s allies in America blame the Justice Department’s China Initiative, established in 2018, for Lieber’s conviction. They accuse this law-enforcement effort of “racial profiling,” “selective prosecution,” and “prosecutorial overreach.”

“The reason people like Lieber lie is because they are afraid,” said Peter Zeidenberg, a Washington, D.C. lawyer representing researchers investigated for China ties, to the New York Times. “It’s really sad. They are afraid to answer truthfully, ‘Are you a member of the talent program?’ I’m sure during the Red Scare, people said they were not a member of the Communist Party.”

A more likely explanation for Lieber lying to federal authorities is that he knew what he was doing was wrong, that he was aware he was taking money to harm the United States. China’s Communist Party has been engaged in decades of taking, by guile, theft, and other means, scientific knowledge, know-how, and other valuable intellectual property. Lieber knew he was part of those Chinese efforts.

China’s theft of intellectual property alone injures the U.S. to the tune of perhaps $500 billion a year, according to John Ratcliffe, the former director of national intelligence. Lieber’s efforts facilitated the loss of valuable technology on top of this staggering sum.

“For more than 70 years, the Chinese Communist Party has invested extraordinary effort into infiltrating and co-opting America’s academia,” Gershaneck says. “Academic infiltration and subversion are vital elements of the Communist Party’s political warfare against the U.S., and to this end its United Front and intelligence organizations aggressively target America’s universities, individual scholars, think tanks, and even K-12 teachers and students.”

The effort has been successful. I am told there are “thousands” of professors on Beijing’s payroll in California universities.

China is about to put even more effort into taking over foreign institutions of higher education. “Chinese ruler Xi Jinping in a major speech in September stressed that it is a regime priority to attract foreign professionals to transfer state-of-the-art scientific know-how to China, saying this is crucial to China’s technological self-reliance and national rejuvenation,” says Burton, the Canadian academic now at the Ottawa-based Macdonald-Laurier Institute.

Xi is serious about attracting talents like Lieber. In his September speech, Xi said he would “exhaust all means” to recruit foreigners. China, Xi said, is “more eager than any period in its history” for professional talent.

He delivered his words at a two-day conference on luring foreign talent, the third nationwide meeting on developing technology.

The Chinese dictator in September established a two-decade timetable to become the world’s science and technology leader. He talked about the struggle on the world’s “main economic battlefield.”

China’s regime believes that the competition for talent is a war. In that war, China’s military has access to all technology in nominally civilian Chinese institutions and companies, and the Chinese military is planning to use this tech to develop the means to kill Americans by the hundreds of millions.

In China’s official war on America — People’s Daily in May 2019 declared a “people’s war” on the United States — Americans working for Beijing, whatever their intention, are essentially traitors. Lieber, a traitor, has inflicted incalculable damage on America.

Lieber will likely receive a prison sentence shorter than six months.

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This article is reproduced with permission from the Gatestone Institute.

A Progressive’s Indictment of Progressive Urban Policies

By Craig J. Cantoni

A review of San Fransicko: Why Progressives Ruin Cities, by Michael Shellenberger, Harper Publishing, New York, 395 pages.

Living in Tucson makes me feel a kinship with Michael Shellenberger, the author of San Fransicko: Why Progressives Ruin Cities. He laments how the progressive wing of his party, the Democrat Party, has ruined his hometown of San Francisco and other one-party cities.

Tucson also suffers from serious governance problems and associated socioeconomic maladies, largely due to being a longtime one-party metropolis without any real political competition. The party in question happens to be the Democrat Party, but given my dislike of what both parties have become, I’d be saying the same if it were the GOP that had the local political monopoly.

My feeling of kinship is heightened because Shellenberger is an environmental activist, as I once was; and is a proponent of reforming drug laws and the criminal justice system, as I am. Both of us are also authors and widely published. Unlike me, however, he was a socialist in his youth and is a rare individual who readily admits where he was wrong in the past.

To the last point, Shellenberger says in the introduction that what he and other progressives had believed about cities, crime, and homelessness was “all wrong.”

The book’s major flaw is its title because it will keep many progressives from reading it. A better title would’ve been, Cities Harmed by Emotions: How Commendable Compassion Has Led to Uncommendable Urban Policies That Hurt People.

The book traces how compassion has led to self-righteousness, which has led to hubris, which has led progressives to be blind to countervailing facts about homelessness, crime, drug decriminalization, and defunding the police. The fundamental belief of progressives who run cities like San Francisco is that lawlessness and other anti-social behaviors should be excused because these are the result of racism, poverty, white privilege, and the inequalities of capitalism—as if all human foibles and the Seven Deadly Sins would magically disappear if they were to run the world.

According to Shellenberger, scholars call such excessive compassion “pathological altruism,” defined as “behavior in which attempts to promote the welfare of another, or others, results instead in harm that an external observer would conclude was reasonably foreseeable.”

Regarding the nexus between homelessness and drug addiction, the author quotes former U.S. presidents and California governors, legislators, and mayors, such as Willie Brown, the former San Francisco mayor (and paramour of Kamala Harris). Brown said, “The problem of homelessness is not going to be solved until one major drastic change takes place in public policy: we have to be able to impose help and treatment on people.”

Due to the decriminalization of the use of smaller amounts of illicit drugs and the failure of existing rehabilitation programs, San Francisco has the fourth-highest death rate from drug overdoses among major cities. As Shellenberger writes, “Today, drug overdoses are the leading cause of death for non-elderly San Franciscans, accounting for 29 percent of deaths of residents under sixty-five in 2019.” He goes on to make this provocative statement: “People are not dying from drug overdose deaths in San Francisco because they’re being arrested. They’re dying because they aren’t being arrested.” (Shellenberger wants arrestees to be given the option of drug rehabilitation instead of jail.)

Mental illness is also prevalent among the homeless. According to the San Francisco Department of Health, 4,000 of the city’s homeless have a history of both serious mental illness and substance abuse disorder. Shellenberger says that “California has a 30 percent higher rate of mentally ill people in jails, and a 91 percent higher rate of mentally ill people on the streets or in homeless shelters, than the nation as a whole, despite spending $7,300 per patient on mental health services, which is 50% more than the national average.” He also says that California ranks near the bottom in the effectiveness of its spending on such problems, while Arizona, which spends considerably less, ranks near the top in effectiveness.

Not only do statistics abound in the book, but so do chilling anecdotes about what it’s like to live and work in San Francisco, with its open-air drug markets, its homeless encampments, its sidewalks littered with human feces, its citizens being confronted and threatened by deranged people high on drugs and/or suffering from a serious psychosis, and its dominant political and cultural mindset, a mindset that somehow has concluded that it’s better to let the homeless live and die on the street like animals than to infringe on their imaginary civil rights.

The ACLU and other civil rights organizations and advocacy groups have this mindset and use their political power to prevent the mandatory psychiatric treatment of the seriously mentally ill. This so upset psychiatrist Dr. Robert Okin of San Francisco that he said, “Civil rights lawyers were more interested in people’s civil rights than their lives.”

Other advocacy groups believe that a lack of permanent housing is a root cause of homelessness, so their focus is on that instead of the establishment of homeless shelters and effective treatment centers and programs. In any event, for a variety of reasons, permanent housing doesn’t get built.

One of Shellenberger’s solutions will make fiscal conservatives gasp, just as it made me wish I had an oxygen tank in the house. It is to establish a powerful new agency reporting to the governor. Separate from existing state and county health departments and health providers, it would treat addicts and the seriously mentally ill, and provide housing to the homeless on a contingency-based system, as well as purchase psychiatric beds, care facilities, and treatment facilities across the state. Resources would be reallocated from existing agencies and programs. Shellenberger sees this as the only way to put a focus on the problems and establish political accountability for solving them.

The flaw in this solution is the same flaw that exists in the politics of Tucson: as long as one party has control of the government, political accountability is a pipedream.

3 Reasons Nuclear Power Has Returned to the Energy Debate

By Jason Bordoff

If we believed our own rhetoric about the climate crisis, support for nuclear would be much higher.

If you still needed proof that nuclear energy has returned to the conversation after decades of disfavor, it came with an unexpected celebrity boost last month. Tesla CEO Elon Musk and the Canadian singer Grimes separately used their star power to advocate against the closure of nuclear power plants, echoing growing pressure for California to reconsider plans to shut its last such plant. Over the weekend, Europe also saw a fresh boost for nuclear energy with the leaked draft of a European Commission plan to include zero-carbon nuclear energy on its list of what counts as a “green” investment.

Notwithstanding Germany’s long-planned closure of three of its remaining six nuclear plants on New Year’s Eve, even as Europe struggles with energy shortages, support from celebrities and the EU was just the latest in a string of good news for nuclear energy in 2021. In the United States, private investment in nuclear projects and companies reached eye-popping levels. U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm became increasingly vocal in support of nuclear power as a zero-carbon energy source. In Europe, several countries—including France—recently announced new plans to build nuclear reactors in order to meet looming deadlines to decarbonize their electricity systems.

A decade after the Fukushima nuclear accident set back nuclear power’s prospects worldwide, the outlook may finally be brightening for three reasons: the urgency of meeting increasingly ambitious climate goals, significant advances in nuclear technology, and national security concerns about China’s and Russia’s growing leadership in nuclear power.

Until recently, nuclear power’s outlook seemed bleak. Following Fukushima, Japan suspended nearly all of its 50 nuclear reactors; today, only nine have resumed operations. Several other countries, most notably Germany, decided to phase out nuclear power. Still others, such as Spain, Switzerland, and Italy, scrapped plans to add new nuclear plants. Between 2011 and 2020, a total of 65 reactors were either shut down or did not have their operational lifetimes extended.

In the United States, the number of nuclear reactors peaked at more than 100 in 2012. Since then, 12 reactors have been shut down, while only one was added. (Nuclear power continues to supply about 20 percent of total U.S. electricity generation.) Cheap natural gas unlocked by the shale revolution and dramatic cost declines in wind and solar power have made it harder for nuclear power to compete. Meanwhile, projects to build new nuclear power plants in the United States have ballooned in cost, seen their timelines lengthened, or been scrapped altogether. Two reactors being built in Georgia are now projected to cost twice as much and take more than twice as long to complete as originally estimated. Two other reactors under construction in South Carolina were scrapped in 2017 after $9 billion in expenditures, leaving ratepayers with nothing to show for their money.

So, given all these setbacks, why the sudden new interest in nuclear power?

First, as the urgency to combat the climate crisis grows, there is growing recognition that the pathway to net-zero emissions will be faster, easier, and cheaper if nuclear energy is part of the mix of solutions.

As Grimes explained in her viral video calling for California to reverse its decision to shut the Diablo Canyon nuclear plant, “This is crisis mode, and we should be using all the tools that we have.” She went on: “If we push the closure back by a decade, it will help the state decarbonize faster and make the transition to clean energy faster and cheaper.”

The pop star’s claims are backed up by analysis. To achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, global electricity use will need to more than double, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), as cars, home heating, and other sectors are electrified. Vast amounts of electricity will also be required to make fuels, such as hydrogen and ammonia, to power sectors that are harder to electrify, such as ship transportation and steelmaking.

In Global Energy Crisis, Anti-Nuclear Chickens Come Home to Roost

In virtually every country that has closed nuclear plants, clean electricity has been replaced with dirty power.

Why This Energy Crisis Is Different

Climate change and the policies to curb it lie behind skyrocketing gas, coal, and electricity prices in Europe and Asia.

All that electricity must then come from zero-carbon sources. Solar and wind power can provide much of that but not all. They are intermittent, as the sun does not always shine nor the wind always blow, and face other limitations, such as the greater amount of land needed. Batteries, whose costs have fallen sharply, can store renewable energy for hours but not yet days or weeks to handle seasonal fluctuations or extended periods of low winds or gray skies.

Thus, the cheapest path to decarbonize electricity is to have some amount—estimates vary—of so-called firm generation: reliable sources that can produce low-carbon electricity on demand whenever it is needed. Today, nuclear power is the only carbon-free energy source operating at scale that can reliably deliver power at any time.

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By , a columnist at Foreign Policy and the co-founding dean of the Columbia Climate School.

Continue reading this article at Foreign Policy.

480 720 Jason Bordoff 2022-01-08 06:48:203 Reasons Nuclear Power Has Returned to the Energy Debate

New Videos Capture Pennsylvania Officials Hiding Evidence Of Alleged Election Fraud

By Margot Cleveland

Pennsylvania county election officials were caught on tape plotting to hide alleged violations of state election law.

New whistleblower videos capture Delaware County, Pennsylvania officials plotting to recreate missing election data from the November 2020 contest, with one official later bragging that the local Democrat district attorney “owes him.” These recordings represent the latest evidence of the alleged fraud officials in the Pennsylvania county undertook to hide widespread violations of the state’s election laws, according to a source familiar with the recordings.

Whistleblower Regina Miller, who worked as a contract employee for Delaware County, secretly recorded the behind-the-scenes videos of election officials after witnessing concerning conduct, according to sources with knowledge of a fraud lawsuit filed last month against county election officials, based in part on the recordings. That lawsuit alleged county election officials destroyed election data in response to a May 21, 2021 Right to Know Request filed with Delaware County that requested the final certified return sheets from the Nov. 3, 2020 general election for all Delaware County precincts, as well as the tapes from the voting machines. 

While earlier videos captured Delaware County officials destroying election material or blocking out “derogatory” information in the copies made in response to the Right to Know Request, the latest video captures two election officials discussing putting in “blank” V-drives, which are the thumb drives that record the results from election machines, to recreate the election results reported by the county.

In one video, James Savage, who served as the chief custodian and voting machine warehouse supervisor for the Delaware County Voting Machine Department during the November 2020 election, is seen talking with another election official who is blocked from the camera’s view.

The duo are discussing the Right to Know Request, according to a source with knowledge on the matter, with Savage inquiring on “recreating data.” The individual off-camera chimes in with his suggested approach that would entail recreating results for “these jokers,” and “then create another set for the next set of jokers” — an apparent reference to the individuals who filed the Right-to-Know request — “but we cut it up and then we create a permanent record,” he explains.

“Here you go, here you go,” the election official is heard saying, mimicking what they could say as they provide the “jokers” the supposedly official election-data documentation. The unseen individual then continues, “We scan those cut, copied sheets in.”

“The first part has a lot of work, but it might save us work in the long run, if it’s gonna be a drip, drip, drip,” Savage is seen saying. The two then talk more about the process with Savage asking about whether they are talking about going to every machine and putting in a clean V-drive. The off-camera election worker appears to concur with that approach.

I sought comment from the attorney who represents Savage in a defamation action the Delaware County official filed against two local poll watchers, as well as Trump and his legal team. Savage, who had filed his lawsuit before news broke that a whistleblower had recorded closed-door conversations, did not answer whether he intended to continue with that defamation claim nor why was there a need to recreate election data.

Savage’s attorney did not respond to requests for comment.

Savage was previously seen on tape talking with an individual identified by people familiar with the litigation as James Allen, the director of election operations for Delaware County. In that video, Allen is heard telling Savage, “Then get rid of the pads and the second scanners.”

“We can’t talk about it anymore,” Savage replies, with Allen questioning, “Why?”

“It’s a felony,” Savage states.

The fraud complaint filed against the Delaware County officials added that, after declaring “it’s a felony,” Savage then allegedly “encouraged a private conversation to continue the conversation of the removal of the pads and scanners due to other Delaware County employees and [contract employee] Regina Miller,” who was present.

Savage stars in two additional short video clips I obtained, in which he brags that the local district attorney “owes” him because he had previously run elections from the other side.

“I was the vice-chair of the Democratic Party,” Savage is heard saying. “I was like Jack’s progressive shield, he held me up” — an apparent reference to Delaware County D.A. Jack Stollsteimer. Savage also explains he served as Jack’s “buffer.”

The videos featuring Savage are particularly concerning because the Delaware County Return Board, in transmitting its report to the Delaware County Board of Election, singled out Savage and his staff for “his guidance and help,” in the Return Board’s November 2020 reconciliation project. Also troubling was the Return Board’s inability to reconcile the election results for 79 precincts within Delaware County, including issues with some precincts that involved inconsistencies between the list of voters and the county return sheets, with the Return Board referring those precincts to Delaware County D.A. Stollsteimer.

Stollsteimer did not return a request for comment on Savage’s claim that Stollsteimer “owed” him. Also unanswered were The Federalist’s questions concerning whether the D.A.’s office has opened any investigation into the evidence seen on the whistleblower’s tapes.

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This article is reproduced with permission from The Federalist.

What I See for 2022: Interest Rates, Mortgage Rates, Real Estate, Stocks & Other Assets as Central Banks Face Raging Inflation

By Wolf Richter

An extra-special cocktail of three powerful ingredients with no cherry on top awaits us in 2022.

Super-inflated asset prices such as housing, stocks, and bonds; massive inflation; and central banks that have started to react.

Many central banks have started pushing up interest rates; others have ended asset purchases. And Quantitative Tightening (QT) – central banks shedding assets – is on the table.

Rising interest rates in the US won’t catch up with raging inflation in 2022 – CPI inflation is now 6.8%, the highest in 40 years.

But unlike 40 years ago, inflation is now on the way up. In the early 1980s, it was starting to head down. We need to compare the current situation to the 1970s, when inflation was spiraling higher. So we’re entering a new environment where the economy will be doing things we haven’t seen in many decades. It will be a new ballgame for just about everyone.

As is always the case, the year-over-year inflation figures will fluctuate. CPI could go over 7% or 8% and then fall back to 5% only to jump again, providing moments of false hopes – as they did during the waves of inflation in the 1970s – only to race even higher.

Inflation has now spread deep into the economy, with services inflation picking up, and there are no supply-chain bottlenecks involved. This includes the inflation measures for housing costs. Those housing inflation measures have begun to surge.

We know that the figures for housing inflation, which account for about one-third of total CPI, will surge further in 2022, based on housing data that we saw in 2021, and that is now slowly getting picked up by the inflation indices. They started heading higher in mid-2021 from very low levels, and they’re going to be red-hot in 2022.

This is inflation is fueled by enormous monetary and fiscal stimulus, globally, but particularly in the US – with nearly $5 trillion in money-printing since March 2020, and over $5 trillion in government spending of borrowed money.

The stimulus has broken price resistance among businesses and consumers. Enough businesses and consumers are willing to pay even the craziest prices – a sign that the inflationary mindset has taken over for the first time in decades. All this stimulus has broken the dam.

Inflation is not going away until central banks remove the fuel via QT to allow long-term interest rates to rise, and by pushing up short-term interest rates via rate hikes, and until these policy actions are drastic enough to shut down the inflationary mindset and reestablish price resistance among businesses and consumers.

Central banks around the world react

The Bank of Japan ended QE in May 2021 – the longest-running money-printer has stopped printing money.

The Fed started tapering QE in November and doubled the speed of the taper in December. If it doesn’t accelerate it further, QE will end in March.

The Bank of Canada ended QE in October. The Bank of England ended QE in December. The ECB announced that it would cut its huge QE program in half by March. Several smaller central banks that did QE have ended it.

Central banks in developed markets already hiked rates:

  • The Bank of England: by 15 basis points, in December, for liftoff.
  • The National Bank of Poland: three hikes, totaling 165 basis points, to 1.75%.
  • The Czech National Bank: five times by a total of 350 basis points, to 3.75%.
  • Norway’s Norges Bank: for the second time, by a total of 50 basis points, to 0.5%.
  • The National Bank of Hungary: many small hikes totaling 180 basis points, to 2.4%.
  • The Bank of Korea: twice, by 50 basis points total, to 1.0%.
  • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand: twice, by 50 basis points total, to 0.75%.
  • The Central Bank of Iceland: four times, by 125 basis points in total, to 2.0%.

Central banks in developing markets have been much more aggressive in hiking rates to get inflation under control and protect their currencies; a plunge in their currencies would make dollar-funding very difficult. They’re trying to stay well ahead of the Fed. Among them:

  • The Central Bank of Russia: seven times, totaling 425 basis points, to 8.5%.
  • The Bank of Brazil: multiple huge rate hikes, by 725 basis points since March, to 9.25%.
  • The Bank of the Republic (Colombia): three hikes totaling 125 basis points, to 3.0%.
  • The Bank of Mexico: five hikes, totaling 150 basis points, to 5.5%.
  • The Central Bank of Chile: four hikes, 350 basis points in total, to 4.0%.
  • The State Bank of Pakistan: three hikes, totaling 275 basis points, to 9.75%.
  • The Central Bank of Armenia: seven hikes, totaling 350 basis points, to 7.75%.
  • The Central Reserve Bank of Peru: five hikes, totaling 225 basis points, to 2.5%.

There are some exceptions, particularly Turkey, which has embarked on an all-out effort to destroy its currency via inflation and is succeeding in doing so by cutting rates. Over the year 2021, the lira has collapsed by nearly 80% against the dollar, with inflation raging at over 20%.

But in the US in my lifetime, there has never been a toxic combination of interest-rate repression to near-0%, amid 6.8% inflation, as the Fed’s money-printing continues for now.

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Continue reading this article at  Wolf  Street.

Genuine Facts About Omicron, Delta, Naturally Acquired Immunity, and Vaccines

By James D. Agresti

Given the recent outbreak of the Omicron variant and much still unknown about it, the facts surrounding the Delta variant provide a cautionary tale of how misinformation about SARS-CoV-2 variants provides cover for people who have caused widespread harm and countless deaths.

Government officials and media outlets have often blamed the Delta variant—and are preemptively blaming the Omicron variant—for:

While the Delta variant is much more transmissible than earlier SARS-CoV-2 variants, its mutations don’t materially compromise the naturally acquired immunity that develops when people catch and recover from Covid-19. Though mass media has led people to believe just the opposite, at least 20 studies conducted throughout the pandemic have found evidence that such immunity is potent and lasting.

In contrast, the current crop of Covid-19 vaccines initially provides strong immunity against Delta and earlier variants, but this appears to start waning a few months after vaccination and drops dramatically by six months. The exact reasons for this are not yet proven, but three major possibilities rooted in empirical facts include the following:

  1. The vaccines are injected into muscles, which produces little-to-no immunity in the upper respiratory tract where the SARS-CoV-2 virus first infects people.
  2. The vaccines target only one area of the virus called the “Spike protein,” while naturally acquired immunity targets the entire virus.
  3. The vaccines trigger an immune reaction to only a few Spike variants, while natural naturally acquired immunity attacks a diverse array of Spike variants.

Data and studies on the Omicron variant are just beginning to pour in, but genetic and immunological research suggests Omicron will be more of the same but with greater transmissibility, a lower death rate, and faster vaccine waning. In other words, it seems ideally suited to mitigation via naturally acquired immunity.

However, the higher transmissibility of Omicron requires much better measures to protect people who are highly vulnerable to C-19. This has been a staggering failure of the authorities responsible for C-19 policies.

Taken together, the thoroughly documented facts below show that the horrors commonly blamed on variants are ultimately due to inept policies and actions. Yet, policymakers and public opinion shapers are failing to learn from their errors and continuing down the same destructive paths.

Ph.D. biostatician Dr. Rodney X. Sturdivant, the Director of the Statistical Consulting Center at Baylor University, critically assessed this research and stated, “People will learn more about Covid immunity and vaccines from this article than if they watched and read everything published by most major media outlets since the outset of the pandemic.”

Mutations & Naturally Acquired Immunity

During the very first week of the Covid-19 pandemic in March 2020, a molecular biology journal reported that the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes Covid-19 “does not mutate rapidly for an RNA virus because, unusually for this category, it has a proof-reading function” in its genome. Throughout the pandemic, science journals have repeatedly confirmed this profoundly important fact.

However, the vast bulk of media outlets have never mentioned it, and U.S. government agencies have virtually ignored it except on a website that stores copies of academic papers.

The upshot of this genetic proof-reading mechanism, as explained in the March 2020 paper, is that once a vaccine for C-19 is developed, it “would not need regular updates, unlike seasonal influenza vaccines.” Implicit in this statement is that the vaccine would trigger a broad immune response that mimics naturally acquired immunity. This involves more than just a few types of antibodies but a diverse array of antibodies, B cells, and two types of T-cells called CD4+ and CD8+.

Such is the case with a wide variety of vaccines for diseases like rubella, mumps, measles, poliosmallpox, and yellow fever. Like naturally acquired immunity, these vaccines commonly provide lifelong protection against these diseases.

Short-lived immunity, on the other hand, typically occurs with diseases like the common cold and flu because the viruses that cause them mutate quickly. As explained in the Journal of Infectious Diseases, “all viruses mutate, but influenza remains highly unusual among infectious diseases” because it mutates very rapidly, and thus, “new vaccines are needed almost every year” to protect against it.

Even still, naturally acquired immunity against strains of the flu can be lifelong. For a remarkable example, a study published by the journal Nature in 2008 found that survivors of the 1918 flu pandemic still had immune B-cells that actively produce “highly functional, virus-neutralizing antibodies” that guard against this disease roughly 90 years later. Moreover, scientists were able to extract these B cells from the subjects’ blood and use them to generate monoclonal antibodies, which had “exceptional virus-neutralizing potency and protected mice from lethal infection.”

As expected for a virus with a genetic proofreading mechanism, at least 20 studies have found evidence that naturally acquired immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is potent and durable. These studies span from early in the pandemic all the way up through the period of Delta variant dominance:….

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Continue reading this article and its scientific citations at  Just Facts Daily.

Covid-19 Economic Zombification

By Daniel Fenandez

Editors’ Note: Discussion of “Minsky Moments” may strike the reader as obscure. However, it is noted in this article that the whole world, including real estate much of the private corporate sector, has become more leveraged than before the 2008 financial crisis. With the sharp rise in inflation,  global central banks have the difficult choice of either letting the inflation run, or increasing interest rates and reducing money supply growth, the very fuel which is supporting the record-setting debt expansion. Either choice could be upsetting to financial markets. Economic trauma always takes on greater power when financial leverage is excessive. Just as debt expansion fuels the boom, its contraction can fuel a bust. Thus, for those of us with money in markets, either building our estates or living off our estates in retirement, this issue becomes very immediate. Economic theory cannot time these events precisely but it can tell us the kind of environment in which we are operating. This level of debt, coupled with a sharp rise in inflation, suggests some sort of confrontation is ahead with serious consequences for investors. That confrontation is the Minsky Moment, and it can be very real for those with money at risk.

Economists and finance specialists are warning of the potential arrival of a new “Minsky moment” in increasing numbers. The last time this term was used with such conviction was in 2008, at the onset of the Great Recession. It seems that 2021–22 could have some parallels with the world’s last severe recession.

The Twentieth-First Century: The Century of Debt

Until now, the 21st century could be called the century of debt, and if things continue the way they are, it could well be called the century of the great debt default. At the beginning of the century, extremely low-interest rates promoted by central banks in practically the entire developed world caused a frenzy of private credit creation and a gigantic financial and real estate bubble that exploded in 2008 with dire consequences for the world economy.

Central banks, heavily pressured by politicians, redoubled their commitment to low-interest rates, causing public overindebtedness to a degree unprecedented in times of peace. In 2020, when the growth model based on the accumulation of public debt and low interest rates seemed to start to weaken, the Covid-19 recession arrived. The worldwide excess of public spending in 2020 has not been corrected, and it does not appear it will be corrected anytime soon. The new public debt is adding fuel to the fire. And the accumulation of it (and also private debt, especially that issued by companies) could be reaching the point of no return.

Global debt reached $200 trillion at the beginning of 2011, while global GDP was $74 trillion (275 percent debt/GDP). In the second quarter of 2021, global debt reached almost $300 trillion with a global GDP of $83.9 trillion (330 percent debt/GDP).

What Is a Minsky Moment?

Hyman Minsky was a post-Keynesian economist who developed a very insightful taxonomy of financial relationships. According to him, the finances of a capitalist economy can be summarized in terms of exchanges of present money for future money. The relationship proposed by Minsky is as follows:

Present money is invested in companies that will generate money in the future.

When companies make a profit, they return the money to investors from their profits.

Income or profit expectations determine the following:

  1. The flow of present money to companies
  2. The price of financial assets such as bonds and stocks (financial assets that articulate the exchange of present money for future money)

Present business income, meanwhile, determines the following:

  1. Whether expectations about past income (included in already-issued financial assets) have been met
  2. How to modify expectations about future income (and therefore, indirectly, the flow of present money to companies and the price of financial assets issued in the present)

Minsky articulates three possible types of income-debt relationship in companies (although he extends the analysis to all economic agents):

  1. Hedge. Hedge finance companies can meet all of their debt obligations with their cash flows. That is, their inflows exceed their outflows. Such companies are stable.
  2. Speculative. Companies can pay the interest on their debt but cannot pay down the principal. They are forced to constantly refinance. These companies are unstable, as any minor problem can bankrupt them.
  3. Ponzi. Ponzi companies do not generate enough income to pay down the principal or pay the interest. They must sell assets or issue debt just to pay the previous interest on their debt. They end up defaulting on the new debt sooner or later. Their chances of survival are minimal.

According to Minsky, when things are going well in an economy and income expectations are met, corporations begin to err on the side of optimism and excessively increase their debt. This causes a shift from a stable situation (in which hedge companies are the norm) to an unstable one (in which Ponzi companies are the norm). In a Ponzi situation, the economy will experience widespread defaults and a financial and economic crisis.

An economy is said to be in a Minsky moment if debtors are unable to pay down their debts (a speculative situation) or unable to pay the interest and the principal (a Ponzi situation).

Minsky was partly right. He accounts for a common truth of financial crises: issuance of debt was abused in previous periods. As a caveat, though, taking into account monetary and financial state interventions—mainly but not solely those of central banks—perhaps the cause of this degradation of debt quality is not a market problem, or at least not exclusively. The crisis may be exogenous to the market (caused by public authorities) or endogenous but amplified by exogenous factors (public authorities contribute to it).

The Economy Has Been Zombifying for Two Decades

As already discussed, global debt has grown more rapidly than the global economy over the last ten years, so it seems credit quality has indeed degraded. The income needed to pay off debt is growing much more slowly than is the debt itself.

An additional piece of evidence to support this argument is the increase in the number of “zombie companies.” A zombie company is one whose earnings before interest and taxes are less than or equal to its debt service (it coincides exactly with Minsky’s definition of speculative and Ponzi companies, taken together). A zombie is a wonderful metaphor because a zombie moves and appears to be alive but is in fact dead. A zombie company also moves and appears to be alive—it generates activity, employs workers, and produces goods—but in reality is (almost) dead. It is (almost) certain to die given its inability to pay its debt with its own means. The number of zombie companies has increased exponentially in the United States in recent years, according to a Bank for International Settlements (BIS) report. Furthermore, the probability of remaining in a zombie state has increased. And in fact, zombification is a reality in almost every part of the world.

Figure 2

Source: Banerjee & Hofmann

Figure 3

Source: Banerjee & Hofmann

However, the BIS data end in 2017. What has Covid-19’s impact been on an already-zombified global economy?

Covid-19 Hit a Zombie Economy: Now What?

The most recent data on company interest coverage (financing cost/earnings) are from the Fed, and refer to the North American economy. In the figure below we can see that the median coverage ratio began to fall at the end of 2018, which is consistent with our hypothesis that the economy’s growth model, based on cheap debt, was beginning to run its course. The pandemic has hammered the median coverage ratio. Although the ratio has been recovering since the second half of 2020, it is currently at the level seen in 2009, in the middle of the Great Recession.

Even more revealing is the interest coverage ratio of the companies in the first quartile (that is, the 25 percent of companies with the lowest ratio). This indicator has been below 1 since 2012; in other words, zombification has accelerated since then. Keep in mind that a ratio lower than 1 means that a company’s profits are insufficient for it to pay its financing costs (it is a Ponzi company).

The interest coverage ratio for companies in the twenty-fifth percentile reached almost 0 just before the pandemic (their profits had almost disappeared). Since then, the ratio has been negative (these companies recorded losses). Observe that these companies have not recovered, while companies in other quartiles have. Their ratio is currently just above −1, which means that their losses (before interest) are nearly equal to their financing cost. This is a total disaster. At least 25 percent of US companies are financially dead.

Valuation of Zombified Companies

One would expect that these companies would begin to go bankrupt, and this is indeed what is happening. According to the Fed, 2.5 times more zombie companies (as a fraction of all companies) went bankrupt in 2020 than in 2019 (<2 percent in 2019 and around 4.5 percent in 2020).

Curiously, the zombie companies that survived 2020 are seeing their valuation skyrocket. Their aggregate value already exceeds $6 trillion, while in 2019 it was close to $2 trillion.

Figure 5

Conclusion

Markets are now extremely complacent. The fundamentals do not seem to justify their optimism. Zombie companies, which were already a problem in 2019, have not been killed off; indeed they have multiplied. The zombie apocalypse could be closer than we imagine.

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This article was originally published by AIER, American Institute for Economic Research and is reproduced with permission.

It’s Time To Abolish The Teachers Unions

By Larry Sand

A disaster for students and good teachers alike.

“All Government employees should realize that the process of collective bargaining, as usually understood, cannot be transplanted into the public service. It has its distinct and insurmountable limitations when applied to public personnel management.”

The above caveat about government unions – usually known by the kinder and gentler “public employee unions” – was not issued by the Koch Brothers or Donald Trump. The statement was made by none other than progressive icon Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Additionally, George Meany, president of the AFL-CIO for 24 years, once stated, “It is impossible to bargain collectively with the government.” Both men understood that the very nature of government makes it wrong for its leaders to enter into negotiations with any union. When government unions negotiate, they often sit across the table from people they helped put in office with generous campaign contributions. And when these unions go on strike, they walk out on the taxpayer.

In the private sector, if a business is forced to pay its workers more money, those costs are passed on to the consumer. If the cost of a product is raised too high, the purchaser can choose to go elsewhere. Most unions get this and realize they can’t bargain for excessive salaries and perks. But some unions push things too far and ultimately price their members out of a job. An example of the latter is the United Auto Workers, whose exorbitant demands drove car buyers to Japanese models and automakers to produce cars elsewhere, thus sending Detroit down the road to ruin.

But the government unions are always a nightmare for consumers, as they can’t shop elsewhere for services provided by the state, because the government has a monopoly on them. When union negotiators and elected officials agree on exorbitant pay packages and protections for cops, prison guards, firemen and teachers, what can the public do? Call a different fire department if their house is burning down?

There is an exception here with schools, but unless there is a parental choice system in place, where public tax money follows the child, only the well-to-do really have a choice. In exercising that option, they must pay twice, however – in state and local taxes which go to their local public school and tuition payments for the private one.

It’s worth noting that many government union leaders fully understand the conflict of interest. In 1975, Victor Gotbaum, leader of District Council 37 of the American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) in New York City, bragged, “We have the ability, in a sense, to elect our own boss.” Forty-five years later, in 2020, Los Angeles teacher union boss Alex Caputo-Pearl admitted, “We have a unique power – we elect our bosses. It would be difficult to think of workers anywhere else who elect their bosses. We do. We must take advantage of it.”

While all government unions do damage, none is more noxious than the teachers’ unions because their collective bargaining agreements (CBAs) have been a disaster for students and good teachers alike. The unions don’t treat teachers as professionals, but rather as interchangeable widgets, all of whom are of equal value and competence. To differentiate between effective and ineffective educators as a result of what their students actually learn would necessitate doing away with their fossilized, industrial-style work rules like one-size-fits-all salary scales, not to mention tenure, contractually known as “permanence” and seniority – perennial union mainstays. Many studies have borne out the harm of CBAs to America’s children.

The Long-run Effects of Teacher Collective Bargaining,” a 2018 study by researchers Michael Lovenheim and Alexander Willen, found that, among men, exposure to a duty-to-bargain law in the first 10 years after passage depresses students’ future annual earnings by $2,134 (3.93 percent), decreases weekly hours worked by 0.42, and reduces employment and labor force participation.

The Lovenheim-Willen study was not the first to detail CBA’s harm to students. In 2007, Stanford professor Terry Moe reported that collective bargaining appears to have a strongly negative impact in larger school districts.

Caroline Hoxby, also a professor at Stanford, made a three-minute video in 2009 in which she explains in plain language how CBAs stifle any management flexibility in determining the best slot for a teacher at a given school, as well as denying schools the opportunity to get rid of underperformers.

Good teachers also are hurt by CBAs. “Wage compression” occurs when the salaries of lower-paid teachers are raised above the market rate, with the increase offset by reducing the pay of the most productive ones. “Why strive to become better if I am not going to be compensated for it?” is the attitude of manyMike Petrilli of the Fordham Institute takes it one step further, claiming CBAs hurt the bottom line of all teachers. According to Petrilli, “Teachers in non-collective bargaining districts actually earn more than their union-protected peers – $64,500 on average versus $57,500.” Petrilli’s study was from 2011, and research from Michael Lovenheim in 2009 and Andrew Coulson in 2010 bore similar results. Also, University of California San Diego professor Augustina Pagalayan reported in 2018 that CBAs do not improve teacher pay.

Barbara Biasi, an Assistant Professor of Economics at the Yale School of Management, has studied teacher salaries. She focused on Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker’s Act 10 in 2011, which all but eliminated collective bargaining for teachers and created a marketplace where school districts could compete for better educators by paying valued teachers more. Among Biasi’s findings is that there is a “34 percent increase in the quality of teachers moving from salary-schedule to individual-salary districts and a 17 percent decrease in the quality of teachers exiting individual-salary districts.” In fact, about half of Wisconsin’s school districts abandoned their lock-step salary schedules and began to pay teachers for performance, for having advanced math and science skills, taking difficult assignments, etc.

In these trying times, the teachers unions have been throwing their considerable power around with great abandon. Several studies have shown that Covid-related school shutdowns occurred more frequently in states and municipalities with strong teachers unions. In fact, the American Federation of Teachers, the nation’s second largest teachers union, lobbied the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on – and even proposed language for – the agency’s school-reopening guidance released in February. Quite obviously the lobbying paid off as “in at least two instances, language ‘suggestions’ offered by the union were adopted nearly verbatim into the final text of the CDC document.”

These unions have often used the pandemic to leverage benefits as well. The California Teachers Association, for example, issued a “bargaining advisory” in May of 2020, in which it states, “When exercising a ‘get for the give’ approach to bargaining concessions, locals should consider strengthening or implementing consultation procedures language in the CBA. The union added, “Now is the time to secure (contract) language improvements that we have wanted for some time.”

The teachers’ unions have also been at the forefront of the move to establish the noxious Critical Race Theory in our k-12 schools. At its latest yearly convention in July, the National Education Association New Business Items (NBI) – proposed projects and actions from the delegates for the union to pursue during the coming year – frequently pushed CRT.

For example, NBI A was adopted, which, among other things has NEA “supporting and leading campaigns that result in increasing the implementation of culturally responsive education, critical race theory, and ethnic (Native people, Asian, Black, Latin(o/a/x), Middle Eastern, North African, and Pacific Islander) Studies curriculum in pre- K-12 and higher education.”

NBI 39 continued the CRT theme and has the union joining forces with two Marxist groups – Black Lives Matter at School and the Zinn Education Project – to push their agenda, which includes providing a study that “critiques empire, white supremacy, anti-Blackness, anti-Indigeneity, racism, patriarchy, cisheteropatriarchy, capitalism, ableism, anthropocentrism, and other forms of power and oppression at the intersections of our society.”

To support its CRT work, NEA now offers a “Confronting White Nationalism in Schools” toolkit.

Immediately following NEA’s annual meeting, the American Federation of Teachers held an online conference at which president Randi Weingarten described a “new culture campaign” that some lawmakers (and Fox News) are using to distort history, limit learning, and stoke fears about our public schools.”

She added, “Let’s be clear: critical race theory is not taught in elementary schools or high schools. It’s a method of examination taught in law school and college that helps analyze whether systemic racism exists—and, in particular, whether it has an effect on law and public policy.”

But if Weingarten really believed that there is no CRT in k-12, why would she have Ibram X. Kendi, probably the most vocal and aggressive CRT proponent in the country, speak at the conference? His talk was touted as, “Hear from Dr. Ibram X. Kendi in this free-ranging discussion with student activists and AFT members on his scholarship and on developing anti-racist mindsets and actions inside and outside classrooms.”

Perhaps the poster boy/patron saint for teachers unions is Bob Chanin, 41-year general counsel for NEA. At the union’s  yearly meeting in 2009, Chanin gave a legendary talk announcing his retirement, and explained why NEA and its affiliates are such effective advocates. “Despite what some among us would like to believe, it is not because of our creative ideas. It is not because of the merit of our positions. It is not because we care about children. And it is not because we have a vision of a “great public school for every child.” NEA and its affiliates are effective advocates because we have power….”

Chanin is correct, and it is a power they never should have been given, and it should now be taken away. Yes, it’s time to abolish the teachers unions.

To that end, Tim Draper, a venture capitalist from California, is trying to put an initiative on the ballot in 2022 that would abolish all public employee unions in the state. Draper maintains that “…some public employee unions have used their money and power to protect bad employees engaged in unspeakable conduct and others who have completely failed at their jobs.”

To be continued.

*****

This article was published by the Heartland Institute and is reproduced with permission.

Free Speech And The Great Barrington Declaration

By Thomas C. Patterson

The controversy over Covid management is not a medical disagreement but a political fight. It’s also a free speech issue, the question of whether those who disagree with the political/medical status quo should be silenced.

Although we have learned more over time about the origins and development of Covid, there is no question it is a contagious virus that spreads primarily through respiratory secretions.

Infections range from symptom-free to fatal, but serious disease and death occur almost exclusively in the infirm and the elderly. Like all viruses, the coronavirus mutates, apparently into variants that are more contagious but less deadly.

So far so good. The disagreement is over its containment. Americans have become a risk-averse people, where nonsensical catch-phrases like “if it only saves one life“ and “in an abundance of caution“ have supplanted sober cost/benefit analysis.

So our government’s go-to solution for the pandemic was lockdowns for everyone. Commercial, social, educational, and other personal interactions were halted to stop the spread of the disease.

The results of this massive experiment in public health were disappointing. 800,000 Americans have perished. There may have been some benefit to “flattening the curve“ – spacing out illnesses to avoid overwhelming healthcare facilities – but the total number of fatalities was not much affected.

Meanwhile, the cost of the lockdowns was enormous. The federal government spent $6 trillion in Covid relief, much of it wasted or misappropriated. Moreover, virtually all of the handouts were debt-financed, pleasing current taxpayers/voters but assuring that Americans will be struggling financially far into the future.

The collateral damage included over 90,000 “excess deaths“ due to forced shutdowns of routine preventive and diagnostic care. There were sharp spikes in levels of depression, substance abuse, and overdose deaths, especially among the young.

The Great Barrington Declaration in October 2020 was based on addressing these “grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies“. It recommended an alternative approach called Focused Protection.

The authors were respected physicians from Harvard, Oxford, and Stanford with 91,000 additional professional endorsements, including from a Nobel prize winner. Their paper noted that vulnerability to death from COVID-19 was over 1000 times higher in vulnerable populations than among young people.  For children, COVID-19 is less dangerous than many other harms, including influenza.

Thus it made sense to protect vulnerable populations if anything more vigorously, while reopening schools, businesses and restaurants with reasonable precautions. Both overall mortality and social harm could be protected until we reached herd immunity.

In a society based on reason and open inquiry, this proposal would at least have received serious consideration. Instead, the Trump-hating media erupted in withering denunciations and cancellations.

Worse, recently obtained emails reveal that our “follow the science” authorities intentionally thwarted the dissenting viewpoint.  Then-director of the NIH Francis Collins wrote Anthony (I am the Science”) Fauci that GBD seemed to be getting some attention. “There needs to be a quick and devastating takedown of its premises. Is it underway?“

Fauci answered in the affirmative. Soon after, he informed the Washington Post that GBD was a fringe operation. “This is not mainstream science. It’s dangerous“.

Several media outlets ran with criticisms by Fauci, who completed the cycle by citing their articles in his talking points.  Facebook pitched in by censoring any references to GBD. It was the dreaded “misinformation“.

Focused Protection never got traction. But shutting down open dissent in favor of political agendas has produced tragic consequences. In spite of Fauci’s claim in October 2020 that the draconian remedies were temporary, when caseloads rose the next month, shutdowns were resumed.

Hard data is never available on the path not taken, but it’s undeniable that the costs of following the Fauci/Collins strategy were staggering: unbelievably enormous federal outlays, shattered businesses, untreated illnesses, suicides and devastating educational achievement losses.

Let’s be smarter with omicron. Let’s vaccinate and medicate, protect the vulnerable but avoid panic and unnecessary disruptions in our lives.

The Great Barrington Declaration, the responses, and the consequences are a reminder of the practical importance of free speech rights. Better decisions are made when all sides are heard out.

*****

Thomas C. Patterson, MD is a retired Emergency Medicine physician, Arizona state Senator and Arizona Senate Majority Leader in the ’90s. He is a former Chairman, Goldwater Institute.

Georgia Governor Brian Kemp Pushes Legislators to Pass Constitutional-carry Bill

By Bob Adelmann

Georgia Governor Brian Kemp announced his support for constitutional-carry legislation on Wednesday. The announcement was made at Adventure Outdoors, which touts itself as the “World’s Largest Gun Store” in Smyrna, outside Atlanta. Kemp was joined by other Republicans supporting the move.

Constitutional carry refers to the carrying of a handgun, either openly or concealed, without requiring its owner first to obtain government permission, through a license or a permit, to do so.

Said Kemp,

In the face of rising violent crime across the country, law-abiding citizens should have their constitutional rights protected, not undermined.

And while this position has recently become popular for [22 other states] as we enter the campaign season, my position has remained the same: I believe the United States Constitution grants the citizens of our state the right to carry a firearm without state government approval.

According to Georgia’s constitution, “The right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed, but the General Assembly shall have the power to prescribe the manner in which arms may be borne.”

State Senator Jeff Mullis plans to introduce just such legislation next week, and other legislators are preparing similar bills. Both chambers of the General Assembly, along with the governor’s office, the secretary of state, and the state’s attorney general are in Republican hands. So, if Mullis’ bill, or one like it, is passed by the General Assembly, Kemp will sign it into law.

Kemp got sideways with the former president over the November 2020 presidential election results. Trump believed there was significant fraud in the election process in the state, giving Biden a razor-thin victory with just a one-quarter of one percent margin — less than 12,000 votes out of nearly five million that were cast — over Trump.

When the former president called Kemp for help, whom he had previously endorsed for the governorship, his plea was ignored.

Trump recalled that conversation with Kemp:

You know you have a big election integrity problem in Georgia. I hope you can help us out and call a special election and let’s get to the bottom of it for the good of the country, for the good of the state of Georgia.

Kemp instead ratified the election results, and Trump retaliated. In a telephone interview with Fox News days after the controversial election, Trump said,

Everything [in Georgia] has to be approved by the legislature, and they had judges making deals, and they had electoral officials making deals, like this character in Georgia [Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger] who’s a disaster.

And the governor’s done nothing. I’m ashamed that I endorsed him. But I look at what’s going on, it’s so terrible.

Now Trump has endorsed Perdue in his race against Kemp for the governorship and his endorsement has, according to a recent poll, pushed Perdue into a dead heat with Kemp.

In another poll taken among Georgians, Trump’s favorable/unfavorable image is 84 percent-10 percent, Perdue’s is 79 percent-nine percent, while Kemp’s is just 68 percent-22 percent. In that same poll, 78 percent of Republican voters in the state believe that “significant fraud occurred in the 2020 election” and just 31 percent “believe Kemp did enough to prevent voter fraud in the election.”

While Kemp’s move to free Georgians from state demands that gun owners first obtain government permission to exercise their Second Amendment-guaranteed rights is applauded, his motives for doing so, even before the General Assembly has passed anything for him to sign, must be questioned.

*****

This article was published in The New American and is reproduced with permission.

Phoenix Six-Figure Job Growth Ranks Second Among Large U.S. Metros

By Elizabeth Troutman

Phoenix has the second-highest percentage change in high-paying jobs out of a list of large U.S. metros, according to a Stessa report.

Phoenix saw a 217.1% increase in six-figure jobs from 2015 to 2020, marking the second-largest percentage increase among the nation’s largest metropolitan areas.

More Phoenix workers made six-figure salaries in 2020 than the national average. Out of Valley workers, 180,740, or 8.6% of the workforce, made six-figure salaries in 2020, while only 7.9% of workers nationally made $100,000 or more. Only 57,000 workers in the Valley reported salaries of $100,000 or more in 2015. Phoenix’s percentage beats all but two of the study’s 15 largest metros, including first-ranked Nashville.

“We are leading the nation in high-wage industry growth, including semiconductors, electric vehicle manufacturing, biosciences, start-ups and more,” Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego’s office told The Center Square. “Our efforts to accelerate and strengthen the business operating environment in Phoenix and the greater region are reflected in this exciting job growth, a sign of our economic vitality.”

In response to the report, Gallego called Greater Phoenix a “national leader and top relocation destination for families, jobs, and businesses.”

Phoenix provides residents with more opportunities and a higher quality of life, Gallego said.

Tucson ranked eighth on the list with a 156.2% percentage change in six-figure jobs between 2015 and 2020.

*****

This article was published on January 1, 2022, and is reproduced with permission from The Center Square.

Can the January 6 Investigation Serve Congress as an Institution?

By Phillip Wallach

Traditionally it has never been questioned, either in doctrine or practice, that the legislature possesses the power, as it was put in early years, ‘to inquire into the honesty and efficiency of the executive branch.’ Under the American system it is this that is the heart of the investigatory power. … [I]f it lost the power to investigate the executive, Congress would retain only the name of legislature.

So wrote James Burnham in his great reflection on America’s constitutional system, Congress and the American Tradition. The National Review editor was aghast at the multiplying claims of executive privilege of his era, the late 1950s, and he hoped that conservatives might rally against them. When he wrote, he took it for granted that conservatives were generally defenders of the legislature’s constitutional prerogatives and standing, and liberals were generally its detractors. He conceded that these orientations might change in some future political environment then unforeseeable to him.

As it has turned out, ideologues of all stripes have generally forsaken Congress in favor of the executive branch in the years since Burnham wrote. With even greater consistency, both political parties have taken stands on behalf of broadening and deepening executive privilege.

Should those of us who think like Burnham circa 1959, then, look kindly upon the current efforts of the House Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the U.S. Capitol? Recently, this committee (comprising seven Democrats and two anti-Trump Republicans) has been on the warpath against promiscuous claims of executive privilege. And it finds itself in the remarkable position of having the president and Department of Justice on its side, such that those members of the previous administration who defy its wishes now find themselves at serious risk of criminal prosecution. One such individual, Steve Bannon, who completely refused to cooperate with the committee, is already under indictment and will stand trial for contempt in July. Congress has a chance to demonstrate its Constitutional might and strike fear into the hearts of those who would defy its will to find the truth.

Of course, not everyone sees things that way. The executive branch’s omerta may indeed be showing cracks, but that just shows the ascendancy of partisan advantage seeking in this political moment. Critics of the Select Committee have dismissed its efforts as simple gamesmanship, a Democratic attempt to embarrass some Republicans ahead of the midterm elections in 2022.

There is little question that the Select Committee is a partisan endeavor—it was basically guaranteed to be from the outset, given that it was the body created by House Democrats after an attempt to agree to a bipartisan commission fell apart. And yet the accusation of partisanship is not the knock-down argument that some people think. Separation of powers conflicts are often fueled by one party’s desire for electoral advantage, but this can be one way in which “ambition counteracting ambition” keeps our Constitutional branches in balance. If the worst that the Select Committee’s critics can say about it is that it hopes to embarrass some Republicans, that would amount to praising it with faint damns.

The critics raise a more serious point when they take a different tack and ask: What is it that this Select Committee is actually trying to do? What is their investigation supposed to reveal about the January 6th attack on the Capitol that we do not already know from the Capitol Police Inspector General’s report, the joint report from the Senate Homeland Security and Rules Committees, the majority and minority reports from the Senate Judiciary Committee, and the voluminous coverage of the events of that day by investigative journalists?

Indeed, perhaps the most important question of all is what any of these investigations are going to be able to add to the most decisive record of all: the Twitter feed of @realDonaldTrump, now officially defunct but preserved for posterity for anyone who cares to look. More specifically, the eighth-to-last tweet issued from that account, at 2:24 PM on January 6, 2021, some 90 minutes after the first Capitol security guards gave way, and soon after Senators fled their chamber and the House interrupted its proceedings because of the mounting dangers from rioters in the building. It read: “Mike Pence didn’t have the courage to do what should have been done to protect our Country and our Constitution, giving States a chance to certify a corrected set of facts, not the fraudulent or inaccurate ones which they were asked to previously certify. USA demands the truth!”

That tweet, in the context of what was happening at that time (and what we are fairly certain Trump was observing on White House televisions), speaks volumes, and it is doubtful whether anything else uncovered by congressional investigators, or federal prosecutors, will ever match it.

Just because the Select Committee can press Congress’s institutional advantage does not mean that it would be wise to do so, or even that it would serve the immediate cause of helping frame the next election.

As the Select Committee decides just how many people it wants to refer for contempt, it would do well to consult Professor Josh Chafetz’s book, Congress’s Constitution (which I reviewed for Law & Liberty some years ago). Chafetz offers a magnificent history of Congress’s contempt power (building on an earlier law journal article), including a chronicle of the years in which the Capitol’s own jail was used to enforce the legislature’s will without any recourse to the executive branch or judiciary. There is no question that, as a matter of Constitutional powers, it is on good ground if it wants to steamroll any and all executive power claims. (The case is much less clear concerning members of Congress themselves, who assert their right to unobstructed speech and debate in the discharge of their duties, including confidential speech, as a reason to resist the committee’s entreaties.)

But the central message of Chafetz’s book is what the Select Committee needs to ponder. My review paraphrased, “A wise Congress seeks out interbranch conflict judiciously rather than indiscriminately.” There may be opportunities for the Select Committee and its allies in the Biden administration to win battles in court against Trump administration officials asserting executive privilege. And it may be possible to construe those as victories for Congress’s prerogatives. But the larger war is playing out in the court of public opinion. And it isn’t clear how the public—as opposed to just the Democrats’ core supporters—will take to seeing people thrown in jail simply because they failed to do everything the committee wished them to.

Particulars matter here. After the Select Committee recommended a criminal contempt citation for Bannon, the Biden Department of Justice delivered an indictment with remarkable speed. It has not done the same for Mark Meadows, Trump’s Chief of Staff at the time of the January 6th attack, who did offer the committee a considerable trove of documents before declining to fulfill some of their requests. Meadows’ claims of privilege are much more substantial than Bannon’s, and executive branch solidarity may yet win out.

What will the Select Committee gain by getting former Trump officials to sit in jail? For some, including Bannon, a jail sentence might well bolster their credibility with die-hard supporters of the former president. At the same time, the Committee risks coming off as simply intoxicated by its own powers.

If it is to avoid that fate as it seeks to get other witnesses to fully comply with its subpoenas, the Select Committee needs to make it very clear just what its investigation is supposed to be doing. There are hints that it may be hoping to frame a criminal indictment of Trump for “corruptly” obstructing or impeding an official proceeding. It is, frankly, rather difficult to imagine that coming off, in part because it is difficult to imagine what kind of smoking-gun evidence the committee could unearth that tells us something that the 2:24 PM tweet did not tell us already.

There is a very strong case to be made that an impeachment proceeding should have been brought against Trump on January 7 and tried in the Senate by January 8 or 9, such that actual removal of the president from office would have been a live possibility. The articles could have been written quite broadly, to emphasize that the primary “high crime” being considered was a violation of the president’s oath to uphold the Constitution and take care that its laws be faithfully executed; the question of whether Trump intentionally fomented the attack on the Capitol could have been treated as a side issue not requiring definitive resolution. That was, almost certainly, the best opportunity to join the causes of partisan advantage-seeking and institutional interest, and we might well have gotten a week or so of President Mike Pence. That would have left an indelible lesson about the Constitutional balance of power in our history books.

Having missed that opportunity, getting Trump officials thrown in jail for not cooperating with the Select Committee and seeing whether Trump himself can be subjected to the criminal justice system for his conduct smacks of sour grapes. Just because the Select Committee can press Congress’s institutional advantage does not mean that it would be wise to do so, or even that it would serve the immediate cause of helping frame the next election.

The best way to acknowledge the ignominious anniversary of January 6 would be to reopen the Capitol to the public. Ordinary Americans have been excluded, officially as a pandemic precaution, since March 2020. They need to come in again. Getting our representative legislature to embrace its connections to our citizenry is the ultimate retort to those who would subvert our democratic processes.

*****

This article was published by Law and Liberty and is reprinted with permission.

Pelosi Owns The J6 Commission, And That’s Why It Failed

By Mollie Hemingway

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi should have taken leadership lessons from House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy.

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s January 6 Commission was supposed to help Democrats hold onto their slim majority during tough 2022 midterm elections. Instead, it stumbled out of the gate, failed to gain legitimacy among the public, and has been plagued with serious legal and ethical problems.

Pelosi’s decision to politically exploit the riot at the Capitol was a no-brainer. Democrats nearly lost the chamber in 2020 when Democrats took control of the Senate and presidency. The president’s party almost always loses significant numbers of House seats during midterm elections. The only time that didn’t happen in recent history was 2002, following the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Pelosi understandably felt her best bet to preserve power was, with a massive assist from left-wing media, to somehow turn disgruntled Donald Trump supporters’ riot at the Capitol into the next 9/11.

There were massive problems with the scheme. For one thing, Republicans had immediately and vociferously denounced the riot. This was a far cry from the Summer of Violence, when Democrats and their media enablers cheered as leftist groups destroyed sectors of cities throughout the country, resulting in “some 15 times more injured police officers, 23 times as many arrests, and estimated damages in dollar terms up to 1,300 times more costly than those of the Capitol riot.”

Democrats did not condemn these serious and lengthy attacks on the White House, federal courthouses, police buildings, private businesses, and homes. Instead, they joined with the rioters in calling for the defunding of police and other radical measures.

The riots were the result of a deeply destructive lie, pushed by top Democrats, that the country and its policing are irredeemably evil and racist. What’s more, any and all attempts to quell the siege of federal buildings were condemned in the most hysterical terms by Pelosi and other Democrats.

Kamala Harris, then a senator from California and the Democrats’ vice-presidential nominee, supported bailing out rioters who destroyed much of Minneapolis. Pelosi pooh-poohed the destruction of federal statues and historical markers. Republicans had consistently opposed political violence, beginning in the summer of 2020, but Democrats had not.

Still, the plan might have worked had Pelosi put together a decent committee. Yet she made several critical errors if she hoped it would be taken seriously.

Consider, first, how Republican House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy managed a similarly important committee with a confidence that Pelosi has lacked.

Democrats threw together their first impeachment of President Trump in 2019 after their long-promised Russia collusion impeachment fell apart due to lack of evidence. Democrats and their media enablers had been claiming for years that Trump was an illegitimate president, and some Republicans had helped them in their general efforts to oust him. McCarthy had a difficult task, knowing that Republican voters weren’t nearly so weak as some of their leaders and would desert the party if it helped Democrats impeach President Trump.

McCarthy was constrained by Democrats’ avoidance of the Judiciary Committee as the venue for the impeachment investigation. Pelosi was concerned that Rep. Jerry Nadler, D-New York, didn’t have what it would take to run impeachment. Impeachment was instead run through the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, then led by Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif.

That committee included a few Republican members known for opposing Trump, such as Rep. Will Hurd, R-Texas. He and Mike Conaway, also of Texas, had already announced they weren’t running again. Some were urging McCarthy to remove Hurd and replace him with someone else. But McCarthy let everyone who wanted stay, while also encouraging any members who enjoyed performing oversight of the intelligence community but didn’t want to take part in an impeachment circus to step away temporarily. When Rep. Rick Crawford, R-Arizona, graciously agreed to such a move, McCarthy replaced him with Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio.

Even that choice showed McCarthy’s confidence, since both McCarthy and Jordan had run for the top leadership spot not long prior. Jordan had also successfully helped block McCarthy from becoming speaker a few years prior. But once McCarthy was made Republican leader, he made Jordan the top Republican on the House’s Oversight and Reform Committee, even over the objections of his supporters on the Steering Committee.

The diverse Republican group on the Intelligence Committee ran an effective opposition, even with Schiff and Pelosi manipulating the proceedings for maximum gain. In the end, Republicans held together, with not a single member of the conference voting to impeach Trump over his phone call with the Ukraine president. It was significant that conservatives and moderates all agreed the charges didn’t pass muster. In the Senate, only Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah fell for the impeachment trial as led by Schiff, leading to Trump’s first acquittal.

By contrast, Pelosi’s roster management has been something of a disaster.

Chairman Bennie Thompson of Mississippi is not even pretending to aim for impartiality and is not well versed in due process. He filed a lawsuit against Trump months before Pelosi chose him as her chairman. And he recently told rabid MSNBC conspiracy theorist Rachel Maddow that if you invoke your constitutional rights against being forced to testify, you are “part and parcel guilty” of crimes.

Pelosi picked Schiff for the committee despite — or perhaps because of — his years of fabulism and lies concerning the Russia collusion hoax. Schiff falsely claimed for years that he had secret evidence that Trump had colluded with Russia to steal the 2016 election, leaked fake Donald Trump, Jr. emails, fabricated the transcript of a 2019 phone call between former President Donald Trump and Ukraine’s president, and lied about his interactions with the so-called whistleblower behind House Democrats’ first impeachment of Trump.

Far from protecting members from the politicized committee, Pelosi also harmed a few vulnerable members by putting them on it. Rep. Stephanie Murphy, D-Florida, was viewed as a “rising star” in the party, even being floated in May as a tough potential opponent for Republican Sen. Marco Rubio. But a few weeks ago, she announced she would not even try to win re-election for her House seat.

Rep. Elaine Luria of Virginia is also facing a tough re-election race, in a district the Republican governor-elect just won. Her seat is being targeted by Republicans. Being part of a uniparty probe with ethical problems can not be helping.

Pelosi’s fatal error, however, was blowing up her own committee by taking what she herself admitted was theunprecedentedstep of removing the Republican ranking member and another top member from it. Pelosi said that she would not allow Rep. Jim Banks, R-Indiana, a distinguished Afghanistan veteran and leader of the Republican Study Committee, from serving. She also banned Jordan, now ranking member of the Judiciary Committee.

Pelosi later claimed the members’ concerns with the integrity of the 2020 election were the reason. But that made no sense, since she appointed Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Maryland, and he objected to Trump’s election in 2017. Pelosi herself objected to President George W. Bush’s election in 2004 and said there was “no question” that the 2016 election was hijacked.”

The resolution establishing the committee requires the committee to follow House rules on the ranking member and minority party representation. But since Pelosi removed the ranking member, its subpoena and deposition activities are at best questionable, and at worst illicit.

Worse, the committee has been falsely claiming to witnesses to have ranking representation. Pelosi’s hand-selected “co-chair” is Liz Cheney of Wyoming, who is expected to lose her re-election bid in a few months. The Republican Party of Wyoming does not recognize her as a member, and she lost her Republican leadership position last year because of her vindictive obsession with fighting Trump, whose less interventionist foreign policy she regularly opposed during his time in office.

Known for being a primary pusher of the false “Russian bounties” claim, Cheney has falsely been presented as the ranking member of the committee. She is not. She was chosen even before the Republican-appointed members were removed by Pelosi.

After Pelosi removed the choices of the Republican conference, she added another hand-selected “Republican” to represent her Democratic conference. Rep. Adam Kinzinger, R-Illinois, also announced he would decline to run for re-election, rather than face defeat from his voters. No Republican-appointed member serves on the committee.

Pelosi wanted to run the commission as a star chamber, and that’s precisely how it’s being run. It’s being used to persecute political opponents, violate due process, and obtain the private communications of Republican members, citizens, and journalists. It has been exposed for repeatedlyfabricating evidence. And Pelosi herself has blocked the release of evidence implicating her office in mishandling security at the Capitol.

Pelosi is expected to step down from Congress following her lame-duck term and expected loss of the majority in November. Her handling of her J6 Committee shows she has lost her leadership skills and lacks the confidence necessary to run such a political operation.

*****

This article was first published in The Federalist and is reproduced with permission.

How To Remedy The Campus Groupthink That Targeted Us

By Christina Crenshaw

Academic freedom, free thought and free speech are under assault on our nation’s college campuses. And it’s not just conservative white men, or the Federalist Society at Ivy League schools such as Yale University, that are under attack. It is also women, including women of color, who are caught up in this new “cancel”-meets-“consequence” culture.

We are college professors/scholars who have experienced cancel culture’s swift and ugly rage, and we both suffered professional damage as a result. One of us is white. The other black. It doesn’t matter if you teach at a private Christian university like Baylor in Texas, where Dr. Crenshaw taught, or at a public university like Christopher Newport (pictured) in Virginia, where Professor Nelson taught and is currently a scholar in residence (the first black woman to hold such a vaunted title in the school’s 60-year history).

Both of us share a common Christian faith and more socially conservative viewpoints, but we are also champions for women’s rights, we believe in the necessity of discussing gender and race as it intersects for us as women, and we have been respectful and engaged for years in dialogue with other marginalized groups including the LGBTQ+ community, even when our respective values or opinions are in conflict. Yet, both of us were attacked by that very community for asking a simple question on Twitter (Nelson) and making a statement of biological and genetic fact (Crenshaw). We will address our stories further down in this piece.

The important point here, however, is that we are in the middle of a seriously flawed sociological and generational shift that has redefined the way we have courageous conversations (or not) on our college campuses. Free speech no longer exists if you do not lock, stock, and barrel embrace diversity and inclusion statements or the LGBTQ+ community.  We both have been told that we may have “free speech” but that there will be “consequences” to us professionally and personally for said speech. With all due respect, if those are the new rules of free speech in America, we don’t want to play the game.

This has been a decade-long slide as our nation bows to the power of the PC police and “wokeism.” In 2018 and 2019, we had the #metoo and #timesup movements, which highlighted the kinds of sexual assault and harassment contemporary women still combat in patriarchal systems like Hollywood, Fortune 500 companies and yes, in academia. In 2020, after the horrific George Floyd murder, we collectively recognized a need for increased national conversations on racial injustice, policing and racial reconciliation. But 2021 just might be the year that cancel culture defined the future of diversity of thought and opinion in academia. A brand new report by FIRE (the Foundation for Individual Rights in Education) spotlights “speech codes” on over 500 college campuses across the country. And the findings are troubling and chilling, to say the least.

Many American universities and some in the U.K. (see Sussex University) have embraced a culture of compulsory groupthink regarding certain “marginalized” groups and points of views; if we differ we can be publicly protested, threatened, harassed, slandered and demeaned by the very groups who loudly demand respect and acceptance from the rest of us. It’s hypocritical, and it must be challenged openly.

Let’s break down how campus cancel culture works because both of us are intimately familiar with the toxic experience. It usually starts with a professor or scholar who has a very visible social media presence or public profile. They innocently ask a question on said platform, as Scholar Nelson did on Twitter about a bisexual comic book character, or offer commentary on something controversial, as Dr. Crenshaw did by talking about transgender bathroom policies. Both of us were respectful and reasonable by all standards. But then a small but vicious mob retaliates first on social media with outraged responses, doxxing, and threats. And then they take it out of the public square and into the workplace at the university where none of what was said originated or has anything to do whatsoever with our students, the faculty, or staff.

The aggrieved use words like “unsafe,” “violence,” “triggered,” and it matters not if the accused offender apologizes, welcomes dialogue, or the like. The apology is attacked as insufficient. Then they destroy the professor’s professional reputation on campus, on the Internet, and to the media. They create damning online petitions, or actual campus petitions to have the “offender” fired and worse (they threaten your physical safety and that of your family, as was the case with Dr. Crenshaw). The mob eventually moves on to another target of their wrath but not before wreaking havoc on their canceled victims’ professional and personal lives. It is a very effective way to silence dissent.

If we are going to preserve “diversity” along with free speech and free thought, here are some recommendations for America’s college campuses:

  1. Redefine the language of inclusivity to be for all, not just so-called marginalized groups. The LGBTQ+ narrative demands inclusivity and espouses tolerance, but it does not reciprocate. That must change and all faculty and students must be protected and defended by university officials.
  2. We need to stop conflating the race and sex conversations; they are not the same. Segregating people on the basis of skin color is racist. Separating people on the basis of their biological sex is safe and honors our immutable differences apparent at birth.
  3. Work on free speech policies: Speech is not violence. Colleges have elevated micro-aggressions over macro-aggressions. There is a difference between speech that expresses an opinion and speech that levels a threat, and we have to discern the difference and respond accordingly. Not everyone can affirm or capitulate to every facet of the LGBTQ+ narrative or that of other groups. For many people of faith, for example, narratives around sexuality and gender identity infringe upon their religious interpretation and expression (as well as common sense and science).
  4. Develop campus dialogues that include all voices. Professor Nelson was silenced for weeks as a half-dozen forums were held without her being present and faculty/students publicly ranted and labeled her a racist, homophobic bigot. Dr. Crenshaw was called transphobic over sound comments she made as a parent about basic biology. The trans identity movement contradicts biology, but it has been protected by institutions such as the CDC, which now refers to pregnant mothers as “birthing people” who “chest feed.” Additionally, the ACLU had to apologize for revising the words of the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg to eliminate female pronouns and make them gender inclusive. This is how far we have shifted to protect groupthink.
  5. We need to practice correction versus coddling. Irate students and faculty have changed the culture on campus to one of compliance or consequences — faculty are now terrified, particularly conservative faculty, to speak out, get on social media or otherwise express opinions when they can be ruined for not holding fast to diversity, equity and inclusion policies. It’s thought control at its worst. What are we teaching students? Not how to dialogue and argue, but how to destroy other people’s reputations for disagreeing or sharing a faith position.

In the final analysis, we are teaching a new generation of students to attack good people rather than bad arguments. We are teaching them to destroy professional reputations and careers when their feelings get hurt. That is not a formula for success once they leave the college campus. Instead, we need to teach them how to make good counter-arguments, state their case beyond emotion, and make room for good people to disagree on the basis of freedom of religion and free thought.

Sophia A. Nelson is a scholar in residence at Christopher Newport University.

Christina Crenshaw is an associate researcher at Dallas Theological Seminary and a fellow at the Independent Women’s Forum.

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This article was published on December 16, 2021, and is reproduced with permission from the Independent Women’s Forum.

Hillsdale College Imprimis: The January 6 Insurrection Hoax

By Roger Kimball

Notwithstanding all the hysterical rhetoric surrounding the events of January 6, 2021, two critical things stand out. The first is that what happened was much more hoax than insurrection. In fact, in my judgment, it wasn’t an insurrection at all.

An “insurrection,” as the dictionary will tell you, is a violent uprising against a government or other established authority. Unlike the violent riots that swept the country in the summer of 2020—riots that caused some $2 billion in property damage and claimed more than 20 lives—was, as Tucker Carlson said shortly after the event, a political protest that “got out of hand.”the January 6 protest at the Capitol building in Washington, D.C. lasted a few hours, caused minimal damage, and the only person directly killed was an unarmed female Trump supporter who was shot by a Capitol Police officer. It

At the rally preceding the events in question, Donald Trump had suggested that people march to the Capitol “peacefully and patriotically”—these were his exact words—in order to make their voices heard. He did not incite a riot; he stirred up a crowd. Was that, given the circumstances, imprudent? Probably. Was it an effort to overthrow the government? Hardly.

I know this is not the narrative that we have all been instructed to parrot. Indeed, to listen to the establishment media and our political masters, the January 6 protest was a dire threat to the very fabric of our nation: the worst assault on “our democracy” since 9/11, since Pearl Harbor, and even—according to Joe Biden last April—since the Civil War!

Note that phrase “our democracy”: Nancy Pelosi, Joe Biden, and various talking heads have repeated it ad nauseam. But you do not need an advanced degree in hermeneutics to understand that what they mean by “our democracy” is their oligarchy. Similarly, when Pelosi talks about “the people’s house,” she doesn’t mean a house that welcomes riff-raff like you and me.

I just alluded to Ashli Babbitt, the unarmed supporter of Donald Trump who was shot and killed on January 6. Her fate brings me to the second critical thing to understand about the January 6 insurrection hoax. Namely, that it was not a stand-alone event.

On the contrary, what happened that afternoon, and what happened afterwards, is only intelligible when seen as a chapter in the long-running effort to discredit and, ultimately, to dispose of Donald Trump—as well as what Hillary Clinton might call the “deplorable” populist sentiment that brought Trump to power.

In other words, to understand the January 6 insurrection hoax, you also have to understand that other long-running hoax, the Russia collusion hoax. The story of that hoax begins back in 2015, when the resources of the federal government were first mobilized to spy on the Trump campaign, to frame various people close to Trump, and eventually to launch a full-throated criminal investigation of the Trump administration.

From before Trump took office, the Russia collusion hoax was used as a pretext to create a parallel administration shadowing the elected administration. Remember the Steele dossier, the fantastical document confected by the “well-regarded” former British spy Christopher Steele? We know now that it was the only relevant predicate for ordering FISA warrants to spy on Carter Page and other American citizens.

But in truth, the Steele dossier was just opposition dirt covertly paid for by the Democratic National Committee and the Hillary Clinton campaign. From beginning to end, it was a tissue of lies and fabrications. Everyone involved knew all along it was garbage—rumors and fantasies fed to a gullible Steele by shady Russian sources. But it was nonetheless used to deploy, illegally, the awesome coercive power of the state against a presidential candidate of whom the ruling bureaucracy and its favored candidate disapproved.

The public learned that the Democratic National Committee paid for the manufactured evidence only because of a court order. James Comey, the disgraced former director of the FBI, publicly denied knowing who paid for it, but emails from a year earlier prove that he knew all along. And what was the penalty for lying in Comey’s case? He got a huge book deal and toured the country denouncing Trump to the gleeful satisfaction of his anti-Trump audiences.

What was true of Comey was also true of the entire intelligence apparat, from former CIA Director John Brennan to Congressman Adam Schiff and other Democratic members of the House Intelligence Committee to senior members of the FBI. All these people said publicly that they had seen clear evidence of collusion with Russia. But they admitted under oath behind closed doors that they hadn’t.

General Michael Flynn, Trump’s original National Security Advisor, had his career ruined and was bankrupted as part of this political vendetta. Meanwhile James Comey, Andrew McCabe, Lisa Page, John Brennan, Peter Strzok, and all the rest of the crew at the FBI, the CIA, and other intelligence agencies suffered nothing. When it came to light that an FBI lawyer altered an email in order to help get a FISA warrant—in other words, that he doctored evidence to spy on a political opponent, which is a felony—he got probation.

The recent news that Special Counsel John Durham is indicting Michael Sussman, a lawyer who covertly worked for the Clinton campaign and lied to the FBI, is welcome news. But it seems like small beer given the rampant higher-level corruption that saturated the Russia collusion hoax.

At least 74 million citizens voted for Donald Trump in 2020, which is at least 11 million more than voted for him in 2016. Many of those voters are profoundly disillusioned and increasingly angry about this entire story—the years-long Robert Mueller “investigation,” the two impeachments of President Trump, the cloud of unknowing that surrounds the 2020 election, and the many questions that have emerged not only from the January 6 protest at the Capitol, but even more from the government’s response to that protest.

Which brings me back to Ashli Babbitt, the long-serving Air Force veteran who was shot and killed by a nervous Capitol Police officer. Babbitt was a useful prop when the media was in overdrive describing the January 6 events as an “armed insurrection” in which wild Trump supporters, supposedly at Trump’s instigation, attacked the Capitol with the intention of overturning the 2020 election.

According to that narrative, five people, including Babbitt, died in the skirmish. Moreover, it was said, Capitol Police Officer Brian Sicknick was bludgeoned to death by a raging Trump supporter wielding a fire extinguisher. That gem of a story about the fire extinguisher, reported in our former paper of record, The New York Times, was instantly picked up by other media outlets and spread like a Chinese virus.

Of course, it is absolutely critical to the Democratic Party narrative that the January 6 incident be made to seem as violent and crazed as possible. Hence the comparisons to 9/11, Pearl Harbor, and the Civil War. Only thus can pro-Trump Americans be excluded from “our democracy” by being branded as “domestic extremists” if not, indeed, “domestic terrorists.”

The Sixth Amendment to the Constitution accords American citizens the right to a speedy trial. But most of the political prisoners of January 6—many of whom have been kept in solitary confinement—are still waiting to be brought to trial. And although the media was full of predictions that they would be found guilty of criminal sedition, none has.

Indeed, the prosecution’s cases seem to be falling apart. Most of the hundreds who have been arrested are being charged with trespassing. Another charge being leveled against them is “disrupting an official proceeding.” This is a felony charge designed not for ceremonial procedures like the January 6 certification of the vote, but rather for disrupting Congressional inquiries—for example, by shredding documents relevant to a Congressional investigation. It originated during the George W. Bush administration to deal with the Enron case.

The indisputable fact about January 6 is that although five people died at or near the Capitol on that day or soon thereafter, none of these deaths was brought about by the protesters. The shot fired by Capitol Police Officer Michael Byrd that hit Ashli Babbitt in the neck and killed her was the only shot fired at the Capitol that day. No guns were recovered from the Capitol on January 6. Zero.

The liberal commentator Glenn Greenwald further diminished the “armed insurrection” narrative in an important column last February titled “The False and Exaggerated Claims Still Being Spread About the Capitol Riot.” The title says it all. Kevin Greeson, Greenwald notes, was killed not by the protesters but died of a heart attack outside the Capitol. Benjamin Philips, the founder of a pro-Trump website called Trumparoo, died of a stroke that day. Rosanne Boyland, another Trump supporter, was reported by The New York Times to have been inadvertently “killed in a crush of fellow rioters during their attempt to fight through a police line.” But later video shows that, far from that, the police pushed protesters on top of Boyland and would not allow other protesters to pull her out.

Four of the five who died, then, were pro-Trump protesters. And the fifth? Well, that was Officer Sicknick—also a Trump supporter, as it turned out—who, contrary to the false report gone viral of The New York Times, went home, told his family he felt fine, but died a day later from, as The Washington Post eventually and grudgingly reported, “natural causes.” No fire extinguishers were involved in his demise.

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The January 6 insurrection hoax prompts lots of questions.

Why, for example, did the government mobilize 26,000 federal troops from all across the country to surround “the people’s house” following January 6? Why were those troops subjected to FBI vetting, with some of them sent packing?

Why is there some 14,000 hours of video footage of the event on January 6 that the government refuses to release? What are they afraid of letting the public see? More scenes of security guards actually opening doors and politely ushering in protesters? More pictures of FBI informants covertly salted among the crowd?

My own view is that turning Washington into an armed camp was mostly theater. There was no threat that the Washington police could not have handled. But it was also a show of force and an act of intimidation. The message was: “We’re in charge now, rubes, and don’t you forget it.”

In truth, there is little threat of domestic terror in this country. But there is plenty of domestic conservatism. And that conservatism is the real focus of the establishment’s ire.

It is important to note that while the government provides the muscle for this war on dissent, the elite culture at large is a willing accomplice. Consider, for example, the open letter, signed by more than 500 “publishing professionals” (authors, editors, designers, and so on), calling on the industry to reject books written by anyone who had anything to do with the Trump administration.

These paragons pledged to do whatever they could to stop “enriching the monsters among us.” But here’s their problem: over 74 million people voted for Trump. That’s a lot of monsters.

Many people have been quoting Benjamin Franklin’s famous response when asked what sort of government they had come up with at the Constitutional Convention of 1787. “A republic,” Franklin said, “if you can keep it.” Right now, it looks like we can’t. It looks as if the American constitutional republic has given way, as least temporarily, to an American oligarchy.

As the years go by, historians, if the censors allow them access to the documents and give them leave to publish their findings, may well count the 2016 presidential election as the last fair and open democratic election in U.S. history. I know we are not supposed to say that. I know that the heads of Twitter and Facebook and other woke guardians of the status quo call this view “The Big Lie” and do all they can to suppress it. But every honest person knows that the 2020 election was tainted.

The forces responsible for the taint had tried before. Hitherto, their efforts had met with only limited success. But a perfect storm of forces conspired to make 2020 the first oligarchic installation of a president. It would not have happened, I think, absent the panic over the Chinese virus. But that panic, folded in a lover’s embrace by the Democratic establishment, was not only a splendid pretext to clamp down on civil liberties; it also provided an inarguable excuse to alter the rules for elections in several key states.

“Inarguable” is not quite the right word. There could have been plenty of arguments, and many lawsuits, against the way the executive branches in these states usurped the constitutionally guaranteed prerogative of state legislatures to set the election rules when they intervened to allow massive mail-in voting. But the Trump administration, though foreseeing and complaining about the executive interventions, did too little too late to make a difference.

Among the many sobering realities that the 2020 election brought home is that in our current and particular form of oligarchy, the people do have a voice, but it is a voice that is everywhere pressured, cajoled, shaped, and bullied. The people also have a choice, but only among a roster of candidates approved by the elite consensus.

The central fact to appreciate about Donald Trump is that he was elected president without the permission, and over the incredulous objections, of the bipartisan oligarchy that governs us. That was his unforgivable offense. Trump was the greatest threat in history to the credentialed class and the globalist administrative state upon which they feed. Representatives of that oligarchy tried for four years to destroy Trump. Remember that the first mention of impeachment came 19 minutes after his inauguration, an event that was met not only by a widespread Democratic boycott and hysterical claims by Nancy Pelosi and others that the election had been hijacked, but also by riots in Washington, D.C. that saw at least six policemen injured, numerous cars torched, and other property destroyed.

You will search in vain for media or other ruling class denunciations of that violence, or for bulletins from corporate America advising their customers of their solidarity with the newly-installed Trump administration. As the commentator Howie Carr noted, some riots are more equal than others. Some get you the approval of people like Nancy Pelosi and at least the grudging acceptance of oligarchs of the other party. Others get the FBI sweeping the country for “domestic terrorists” and the lords of Big Tech canceling people who defend the protesters’ cause.

Someday—maybe someday soon—this witches’ sabbath, this festival of scapegoating, and what George Orwell called the “hideous ecstasy” of hate will be at an end. Perhaps someday people will be aghast, and some will be ashamed, of what they did to the President of the United States and people who supported him: the chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, for instance, proposing to put Senator Ted Cruz on a “no fly” list, and Simon & Schuster canceling Senator Josh Hawley’s book contract.

Donald Trump is the Emmanuel Goldstein (the designated principal enemy of the totalitarian state Oceania in Orwell’s 1984) of the movement. But minor public enemies are legion. Anyone harboring “Trumpist” inclinations is suspect, hence the widespread calls for “deprogramming” Trump’s supporters, who are routinely said to be “marching toward sedition.”

Michael Barone, one of our most perceptive political commentators, got it right when he wrote of the rapid movement “from impeaching incitement to canceling conservatism.” That is the path our oligarchs are inviting us to travel now, criminalizing political dissent and transforming policy differences into a species of heresy. You don’t debate heretics, after all. You seek to destroy them.

Donald Trump’s accomplishments as president were nothing less than stunning. Trump was, and is, a rude force of nature. He accomplished an immense amount. But he lacked one thing. Some say it was self-discipline or finesse. I agree with a friend of mine who suggested that Trump’s critical flaw was a deficit in guile. That sounds odd, no doubt, since Trump is supposed to be the tough guy who mastered “the art of the deal.” But I think my friend is probably right. Trump seems never to have discerned what a viper’s nest our politics has become for anyone who is not a paid-up member of The Club.

Maybe Trump understands this now. I have no insight into that question. I am pretty confident, though, that the 74 plus million people who voted for him understand it deeply. It’s another reason that The Club should be wary of celebrating its victory too expansively.

Friedrich Hayek took one of the two epigraphs for his book, The Road to Serfdom, from the philosopher David Hume. “It is seldom,” Hume wrote, “that liberty of any kind is lost all at once.” Much as I admire Hume, I wonder whether he got this quite right. Sometimes, I would argue, liberty is erased almost instantaneously.

I’d be willing to wager that Joseph Hackett, confronted with Hume’s observation, would express similar doubts. I would be happy to ask Mr. Hackett myself, but he is inaccessible. If the ironically titled “Department of Justice” has its way, he will be inaccessible for a long, long time—perhaps as long as 20 years.

Joseph Hackett, you see, is a 51-year-old Trump supporter and member of an organization called the Oath Keepers, a group whose members have pledged to “defend the Constitution against all enemies foreign and domestic.” The FBI does not like the Oath Keepers—agents arrested its leader in January and have picked up many other members in the months since. Hackett traveled to Washington from his home in Florida to join the January 6 rally. According to court documents, he entered the Capitol at 2:45 that afternoon and left some nine minutes later, at 2:54. The next day, he went home. On May 28, he was apprehended by the FBI and indicted on a long list of charges, including conspiracy, obstruction of an official proceeding, destruction of government property, and illegally entering a restricted building.

As far as I have been able to determine, no evidence of Hackett destroying property has come to light. According to his wife, it is not even clear that he entered the Capitol. But he certainly was in the environs. He was a member of the Oath Keepers. He was a supporter of Donald Trump. Therefore, he must be neutralized.

Joseph Hackett is only one of hundreds of citizens who have been branded as “domestic terrorists” trying to “overthrow the government” and who are now languishing, in appalling conditions, jailed as political prisoners of an angry state apparat.

Hayek’s overriding concern in The Road to Serfdom was to combat the forces that were pushing people further along that road to servitude. His chief concern was unchecked state power. In a new preface to the book’s 1956 edition, Hayek noted that one of its “main points” was to document how “extensive government control produces a psychological change, an alteration in the character of the people.”

This means,” Hayek wrote, “that even a strong tradition of political liberty is no safeguard if the danger is precisely that new institutions and policies will gradually undermine and destroy that spirit.”

This dismal situation, Hayek continues, can be averted, but only if the spirit of liberty “reasserts itself in time and the people not only throw out the party which has been leading them further and further in the dangerous direction but also recognize the nature of the danger and resolutely change their course.”

Note the power of that little word “if.” It was not so long ago that an American could contemplate totalitarian regimes and say, “Thank God we’ve escaped that.” It’s not at all clear that we can entertain that happy conviction any longer.

That’s one melancholy lesson of the January 6 insurrection hoax: that America is fast mutating from a republic, in which individual liberty is paramount, into an oligarchy, in which conformity is increasingly demanded and enforced.

Another lesson was perfectly expressed by Donald Trump when he reflected on the unremitting tsunami of hostility that he faced as President. “They’re after you,” he more than once told his supporters. “I’m just in the way.”

Roger Kimball is editor and publisher of The New Criterion and publisher of Encounter Books. He earned his B.A. from Bennington College and his M.A. and M.Phil. in philosophy from Yale University. He has written for numerous publications, including The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times Book Review, and is a columnist for The Spectator WorldAmerican Greatness, and The Epoch Times. He is editor or author of several books, including The Long March: How the Cultural Revolution of the 1960s Changed AmericaThe Rape of the Masters: How Political Correctness Sabotages ArtTenured Radicals: How Politics Has Corrupted Our Higher Education, and Vox Populi: The Perils and Promises of Populism.

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This article was published in September 2021 in Imprimis, a publication of Hillsdale College and is reprinted with permission.