Iran Strikes & Strait Tensions Ignite Oil Surge as the AI Trade Feels Exhausted

By Kenny Polcari

Written by Kenny Polcari

Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes

Things You Need to Know

  • Brace yourself – here we go again. IRGC attacks 3 ships.
  • Oil surges back up and thru $70, Bonds fall, yields move further into the Danger Zone.
  • FOMC mins due out at 2 pm.
  • Global mkts under pressure – US futures all lower.

Oh boy…..Last night, we launched a new round of strikes against Iran after the IRGC attacked commercial ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz. And just like that — the Middle East is back on the front burner.

So yes — brace yourself. We should expect more volatility as investors try to figure out what this means for oil, inflation, the Fed, and the broader risk trade. Because any threat of a Strait closure is never just a regional story — it is a global market story.

But let’s be clear — the chop did not start last night.

The AI trade was already showing signs of exhaustion before the latest headlines hit the tape. Some of the hottest names (think those memory names – all in bear mkt territory now (down more than 20% off their highs) ….MU, SK Hynix, WDC, STX and Samsung were already under pressure, valuations were already being questioned, and investors were already rotating out of the high-flyers ahead of earnings season.

The narrative has been that this wasn’t just another speculative bubble. The case has been simple: earnings were growing even faster than stock prices, and those stronger fundamentals justified the premium valuations. Yesterday, Samsung essentially validated that argument with another strong blowout quarter. And what happened? They sold it and the whole group anyway….

And all that says is that this selloff wasn’t really about Samsung. It’s about positioning, profit-taking, and investors again asking whether expectations have simply gotten too high heading into earnings season. (We discussed this on Monday.

And then Reuters threw gas on it… DeepSeek is developing its own AI chip. Doesn’t matter how far along it actually is. The market heard “potential Nvidia alternative” and started asking questions about the whole AI infrastructure trade all over again, and that sent the semis reeling…the SOXX down more than 5%.

Now while the indexes all ended lower when the bell rang – the Dow did make a new intraday high – before giving it all back…And while the S&P ended lower, there was still underlying strength in the broader market with 6 sectors ending the day higher…. Utilities, Consumer Staples, Communications, Energy, Healthcare, and Real Estate were all up – again suggesting more rotation in the sectors that have been waiting patiently.

This is the rotation thesis playing out in real time, and it is exactly what I’ve been telling you to watch for. The ‘generals’ get tired while the troops keep marching. Equal-weight S&P up 12% ytd is holding up better than cap-weighted S&P, which is up 9.6% ytd.

Now layer in the oil headline. Treasury revoking the license that allowed Iranian crude to flow is not a small thing… it tightens the supply optics right as the Strait of Hormuz risk premium was starting to fade from our memory banks. Oil surged $2 yesterday and is up another $3.50 this morning at $74/barrel. Recall what I said on Monday – the path of least resistance is down UNLESS we get an unexpected Iran headline – guess what? We got the headline! And this morning, Trump says that ‘the deal’ is off – Iran doesn’t want this to end and so it won’t – which means expect more volatility in oil as well as the broader markets.

Today brings the FOMC minutes from Kevy’s first meeting as Chair…and I think they could give us our first real look at how he intends to run monetary policy.

I’ve said it before, and I still believe this is where he’s headed.

My gut tells me that while the Fed may provide some relief (rate cuts) at the short end of the curve when conditions warrant, it has no intention of returning to the easy-money policies that defined much of the past 15 years. Balance sheet discipline is likely to remain front and center, which means liquidity isn’t going to come flooding back into the system anytime soon.

That’s an important distinction because financial conditions can remain restrictive even if short-term rates begin to move lower. We talked about this last month when we discussed quantitative tightening and the Fed’s balance sheet shrinking. Long-term Treasury yields, credit spreads, and the overall availability of liquidity all matter just as much. My sense is that Warsh is comfortable letting the market do more of the heavy lifting rather than relying on the Fed to support asset prices at every turn.

So, for investors, that means the days of buying every dip because the Fed has your back may be behind us. Investing is likely to become more selective. Valuations will matter more. And companies will have to earn the premiums investors have been willing to pay.

And I suspect it’s going to be an adjustment for an entire generation of investors and market professionals who came of age during the Bernanke, Yellen and Powell years, when extraordinary monetary accommodation became the norm. This environment is different. Liquidity won’t be as abundant. The Fed may not be as quick to ride to the rescue. And that means fundamentals, earnings, cash flow, and valuation once again become the primary drivers of investment success.

Frankly…that’s the way markets are supposed to work – Welcome to a market driven by fundamentals.

Bonds took a hit yesterday – the TLT lost 1% while the TLH lost 0.9%, and that sent yields UP…. The 2 yr is now yielding 4.20%, the 10 yr has pierced 4.5% and is now yielding 4.57%, while the 30 yr is now at 5.07% – putting us further into the danger zone.

Today brings little in the way of market-moving economic data, so investors will likely turn their attention to Wednesday’s release of the June FOMC meeting minutes, which we have already discussed.

Gold is plunging….it lost $58 or 1.4% yesterday and is down another 1.3% or $52 today…. trading at $4,050/oz…. a direct result of the change in tone…and the expectation of what we will see in the FOMC mins. Technically, the chart still suggests gold will find support at $4,000. If we break that, then $3,500 is the target, and we discussed this as well last week. So, this is not a surprise.

So overnight, the Kospi got hit again…down 5.3%, and that is not helping the overall tone for the AI trade.

European markets are all down – Spain getting whacked – down 2.5%- while the UK is only down 1.3%… everyone else is somewhere in between.

US futures are getting smoked…. Dow futures down 580 pts or 1.1%, the S&P down 70 pts or 1%, the Nasdaq is down 400 pts or 1.6%, while the Russell is down 45 pts or 1.7%.

The S&P closed at 7503 down 33 pts…..trendline support is 7,410 – and if we break that over the next couple of sessions – then expect us to test the June lows – 7,280…. down 3% from here.

Take good care,

Kp

Kenny Polcari is a partner and Chief Market Strategist at Slatestone Wealth – A boutique wealth advisory firm with $2 billion dollars of investor assets under management. In this role, his responsibilities range from market and economic analysis to investor education interpreting the ever changing economic and market landscape on behalf of Slatestone and how those impacts may affect future investment and planning strategies on behalf of their clients. With more than 40 years of industry experience as a member of the NYSE serving institutional investors both at home and abroad – he is a seasoned and well-known voice on the markets. You may recognize him from his many years serving as a market analyst on Fox Business and CNBC or his ‘Trader Talk’ Podcast on the Yahoo Finance Channel. For more, please visit his Substack HERE.

Disclaimer. Source: Bloomberg, CNBC, Reuters, Wall Street Journal

This media segment contains general market commentary based on publicly available information and is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Any discussion of companies, securities, or asset performance relates solely to those assets and does not represent the performance of any firm investment strategy, portfolio, or client account. It should not be interpreted as portfolio performance or as a reflection of client results.

This content does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Opinions expressed reflect views at the time of the interview and may change without notice. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties and are not guarantees of future outcomes. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. The firm and its clients may hold positions in assets discussed, and holdings may change at any time.

The author’s views are their own and do not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Investing involves risk; please consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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Medicare Opens the Ozempic Door: Major Unlock for Seniors and the Economy

By The Editors

Written by The Editors

Estimated Reading Time: 2 minutes

The most talked-about drugs in America are about to reach the senior medicine cabinet, at a price a fixed income can absorb. Medicare has long been barred from covering weight-loss drugs, leaving seniors to pay cash for treatments that can run over a thousand dollars a month. That changes this summer, when a new federal demonstration caps the cost of certain GLP-1 medications at $50. Here is what was announced, who qualifies, and the catch worth reading before July.

The Facts:

What is Being Said:

The fine print:

  • The $50 figure is a copay under a demonstration authority, meaning it is time-limited and could change when the program sunsets at the end of 2027.
  • Beneficiaries are told to talk to their doctor about whether a GLP-1 is right for them, with more guidance promised before launch.

What Should You Watch? For millions of seniors, this turns a thousand-dollar-a-month luxury into a fifty-dollar copay, a real and immediate change. The conservative caution is the familiar one: a two-year demonstration tends to become a permanent entitlement, and someone eventually pays the full sticker price. These drugs could have an incredible impact on our society. Not just obesity and related illnesses, but think knees, energy, hips, alcohol, fast food, gambling, and much more. The jury is still out, but these drugs could be a major unlock for Americans, and our seniors should benefit as much as anyone if the financials and science check out.

-The Editors

This piece does not constitute financial, investment, medical, or legal advice. Investing involves risk; please consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. For medical decisions, please discuss with your physician before making any decisions.

Sourced from PRICKLY PEAR

Could Scarcity Turn to a Glut? Rapid Changes in the Oil Market

By The Editors

Written by The Editors

Estimated Reading Time: 2 minutes

Scarcity was the story of the spring. Surplus may be the story of the summer. With Hormuz reopening faster than anyone predicted, oil has fallen again, and major banks are now warning of a glut rather than a shortage. If you are watching both the pump and your portfolio, here is how far prices have swung, who is actually pumping, and why cheaper gas built on a fragile truce deserves a skeptical eye.

By the numbers:

Follow the barrels:

How this hits your kitchen table:

Our verdict: Lower prices are a real win for households and a quiet raise for anyone on a fixed income. Still, this is relief built on a 60-day truce and a sanctions waiver that lapses in weeks. Enjoy the savings, but do not rebuild the family budget around a number that Tehran and Beijing can move overnight.

-The Editors

This piece does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Investing involves risk; please consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Sourced from PRICKLY PEAR

The Averages Turn Against the GOP: Fresh Polling Explained in One Minute

By The Editors

Written by The Editors

Estimated Reading Time: < 1 minute

Midterms require momentum, and right now the GOP is fighting uphill.

Fresh national polling shows Republicans trailing by double digits on the ballot that decides Congress, with the president underwater and the economy still the dominant worry. Here is where the 2026 race actually stands and the wild card that ties it to a barrel of oil.

The scorecard:

  • Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot 50% to 40%.
  • President Trump sits at 39% approval against 55% disapproval.
  • Independents break for Democrats 45 to 30, a 15-point gap.
  • Hispanic voters break for the Democrats by 34 points.

What voters are saying:

Worth watching: Analysts note that if Republicans fear losses, the White House will be pressured to avoid an oil-price shock before November.

The bottom line: None of this is final, and a few months in politics is a lifetime. But the pattern is the one every strategist fears: an unpopular incumbent party, an economy-first electorate, and independents drifting away. The Republicans need to get back to basics and to the issues that resonate with American voters. This means Kitchen Table & Main Street.

-The Editors

Sourced from PRICKLY PEAR

Lessons for Tucson from Santa Monica

By Craig J. Cantoni

Written by Craig J. Cantoni

Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes

A pretty natural setting can’t overcome bad governance, a bad image, and bad upkeep.

The July 5th edition of the Wall Street Journal had an article on Santa Monica, California, titled, “On the California Coast, a Picture-Perfect City Falls on Hard Times.” 

Tucson could learn some lessons from the article.

First, a personal note:  Decades ago, I used to love visiting Santa Monica, other parts of Southern California, and San Francisco.  I even proposed to Kim at Ghirardelli Square in S.F.

I was in awe of California’s climate, natural beauty and even the spotless freeways with their ivy-covered shoulders.  That was especially the case when I lived and worked in Chicago and then metro New York and would travel to the Golden State for business and pleasure.

At the time, New York City was still a dystopia and hadn’t yet been cleaned up by Mayor Giuliani.  As such, there was a sharp contrast between it and L.A and S.F.

However, as NYC was subsequently cleaned up, the California cities started going downhill rapidly.  Their positive contrast with NYC began diminishing and eventually reversed.

Back to the WSJ article:  It claimed that Santa Monica’s troubles are due to restaurants and bars closing during Covid, to the 3rd Street Promenade no longer being trendy, to the nearby Palisades fire, and to Trump’s policies hurting tourism.

Readers disagreed, especially those who live in Santa Monica.  In the comments section following the article, they said that the city suffers from a one-party government that has allowed and even encouraged the festering problems of homelessness, vagrancy, public disorder, seediness, and littered streets and public places.

In other words, a pretty natural setting can’t overcome a bad government, a bad image, and bad upkeep.

In case Tucson’s leaders don’t believe it, comments by readers of the WSJ article might convince them otherwise.  Below are representative comments.  My closing thoughts follow the comments.

Jacob B

The homeless issue is massive here yet it only gets one sentence. Here and Venice they’ve taken over

Ramin Amirnovin

There’s nothing nice about having a homeless person pee in front of your children while you’re on vacation. And I live here.

Ken Smotrys

Started with Covid??? How ‘bout over 4 decades ago.

Michael Bomya

Who would have ever thought that allowing public lawlessness would affect tourism?

Robert Papp

Santa Monica is one of the most beautiful places on the planet, beaches, perfect weather. It takes epic gross mismanagement to screw it up, but the city leaders have managed such a feat. Congrats!

LR Center

I left CA for Orlando in May. It’s wonderful here. It’s clean. No graffiti. No open-air drug use. No weeds. No vagrants. No potholes. Great restaurants. Nice people. And FL provides basic municipal services for vastly less cost than CA. And BTW NO STATE TAX. So if you are in CA consider FL.

Scott Davis

The reporter’s bias is obvious. International tourists haven’t stopped coming because of Trump; rather, they stopped coming because they kept getting shot.

Soheil Younai

I have been going to SM pier on a regular basis for the last 4 years. the Issue is the trash, homeless, and lawlessness. The police and public workers are not allowed to move or do anything. The problem is the SM city and its board members that don’t value public safety and economic revival. As long as there is rampant homelessness in SM there will be no change.

Brad Z

Bums, bums, and more bums. That’s why businesses and tourists have stayed away.

David Lim

Santa Monica and San Francisco are prime examples of what happens when the liberals decide crime and theft is acceptable.  The woke belief that open drug use is humane and homelessness is a human right will not attract tourists or residents.  CA needs to suffer the consequences.

Robert Krantz

Yes, pretty much self-inflicted.  And likely to be repeated.

JOHN JEFFS

Emblematic of LA in general.  Nothing to see anymore, just garbage, homeless, and corrupt government.

Marion W

Don’t forget fires set by homeless people.

CYNTHIA H

I was a sixty-year resident of Los Angeles and spent several years living adjacent to Santa Monica, commonly known in L.A. as “the people’s republic of Santa Monica”.  Santa Monica had been for decades a mixture of monied hippies, social-security dependent elderly and homeless. Santa Monica was also rent-controlled for decades, so housing was scarce. I lived in a dump of an apartment near Santa Monica because it was all I could afford. No one ever moved because landlords could not raise the rent. SM passed all sorts of super progressive laws before it became “fashionable.” Smoking was banned in SM but open drug use is not. Homelessness became an overwhelming issue because SM council did nothing to curtail it or clean it up. Begging and sleeping on pedestrian sidewalks is commonplace. One puts his or her life on the line just walking down the street. SM is dirty and crime ridden. I fully understand why retail has left. And by the way, the beaches which were my haven in my youth are full of dangerous homeless. I can’t foresee a comeback in the near future.

Peter Wolf

Anyone who has been visiting Santa Monica steadily since the late 1970’s knows perfectly well what ails the city. It’s the same thing afflicting many California coastal cities. Transients. Transients by the tens of thousands. Whacked out druggies. Homeless encampments everywhere. These problems long predate Covid or the Palisades fires.

Look at Long Beach. A city with a terrific beach and waterfront and aquarium, etc. No tourism. Why? Because of the transients everywhere. Same problem along the beaches in Santa Barbara, Laguna Beach, etc. In fact, luxury hotels south of Laguna warn their guests not to visit Laguna because of the mobs of homeless.

So if these cities want to restore their economies then sweep the transients out!!

JOHN ERICKSON

Wow! Who ever thought that public safety and pro-business policies might be related to prosperity? What a concept!

Dr Water

Santa Monica should be one of the most attractive public spaces in Southern California. The ocean views, walkability, and climate are extraordinary. But the experience on the ground has deteriorated badly. Large parts of the area now feel dominated by homelessness, unregulated street vending, loud portable speakers, and a general lack of civic order.

The result is a place that should feel welcoming but often feels chaotic and unpleasant. Visitors can still appreciate the natural beauty, but it is increasingly hard to ignore how much the public environment has declined. Santa Monica’s problem is not a lack of scenery; it is a failure of basic governance, enforcement, and stewardship.

Paul McMurry

Visited a friend in LA last year and I was shocked by the amount of litter absolutely everywhere.

Thomas Martin

Single Party System of Govt. Oh let me guess it’s someone else’s fault.

 

If the foregoing comments aren’t enough to convince Tucson’s leaders of the importance of good government, image and upkeep, they should take one of the drives that visitors from out of town take from the Tucson airport to their hotel.

 A particularly educational drive would be the one from the airport to the Loews Ventana Canyon Resort, which is in the Foothills and is where many corporate conferences are held.  The route is a fair representation of Tucson, because it doesn’t go through the worst part of town or the best part of town

The quickest and most direct route from the airport to the resort is to take Valencia east to Golf Links, Golf Links east to Alvernon, Alvernon north to 22nd St., 22nd St. east to Craycroft, Craycroft north to where it becomes Kolb, and Kolb to the resort.

Seventy-five percent of the 19-mile drive varies from ugly to forlorn to shabby to seedy to dystopian.

Many parts are also extremely dangerous, due to a deadly mix of impaired drivers exceeding the speed limit, stoned pedestrians ignoring crosswalks, crazed motorcyclists without helmets zigzagging in traffic, people with a death wish riding on the shoulder in motorized wheelchairs and motor bikes, and panhandlers standing in medians and on corners, sometimes with a suffering pet dog panting in the heat.

Fortunately, the 100-acre shantytown on Golf Links has finally been cleared of the homeless and the corresponding tons of debris, trash, and human and pet waste.

Where did the former residents of the shantytown go?  They probably took a free ride on a Tucson bus to other popular hangouts of the homeless, such as Craycroft and Broadway, Craycroft and Speedway, and Craycroft and Grant next to the Tucson Medical Center.

Craycroft and the Rillito River are also popular spots because many homeless people live in the dry river bottom or along the Loop bike/walk path.   Some even live in a culvert across from an attractive shopping center anchored by a Whole Foods, at Craycroft and River Rd.

It is not known if the homeless are noticed by the petite bleached-blonde women with Botox lips who drive their humongous Land Rovers and lips to Whole Foods.

By this point in the journey to the resort, one begins to wonder if there are ordinances in Tucson that prohibit the beautification of streets and private property, the installation of attractive commercial signage, and the removal of weeds, trash, litter, and tacky advertising signs lashed to traffic signs or planted on the roadside.

The sights and scenery improve as Craycroft climbs into the Foothills.  There are no commercial eyesores, and the Catalina Mountains are pretty.  Even the city looks pretty from that distance and elevation, especially at night.  But streetscaping and street maintenance are not aesthetically pleasing.  To wit.

-Craig Cantoni

Mr. Cantoni is an author, activist and retired executive.

Sourced from PRICKLY PEAR

China Is Gaining Too Much Military Leverage in This Area: State of Play

By The Editors

Written by The Editors

Estimated Reading Time: 2 minutes

A war with China might not be lost on the battlefield. It could be lost on a factory floor. How?

Beijing has tightened its chokehold on the rare earth magnets inside almost every American weapon, cutting off buyers with any military tie and rejecting anything bound for defense use. Here is the scale of the dependence, the war-game math, and the slow scramble to fix it.

China’s Ledger:

By the numbers:

  • Unclassified war games show US forces running out of many munitions within a week of a Taiwan Strait fight.
  • The dependence is physical: a Virginia-class submarine needs about 9,200 pounds of rare earths, an F-35 more than 900.
  • A national stockpile worth an inflation-adjusted $42 billion at its Cold War peak is now valued under $1 billion.
  • The Government Accountability Office puts the cost of closing those gaps at $18.5 billion.

What Next?

  • The Pentagon took a $400 million equity stake in MP Materials and set a $110-per-kilogram price floor.
  • It added a $150 million loan to expand the Mountain Pass site and signed a 10-year deal for 100% of a new magnet plant’s output.
  • Even so, only one company, Noveon, currently makes rare earth magnets in the United States.

This is the critical security gap the media misses until it is too late: a superpower that can design anything but cannot always build it alone. The fixes are real and bipartisan, but they will not be ready before 2027, and Beijing knows it. Deterrence in the Pacific now depends as much on magnets and mines as on carriers and jets.

-The Editors

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Europe Reaches Into Your Feed: Censorship Not Being Reported

By The Editors

Written by The Editors

Estimated Reading Time: 2 minutes

The most aggressive censor of American speech this year does not sit in Washington. It sits in Brussels.

X is appealing a European Union fine, which its lawyers call a severe threat to free speech, and a House Judiciary investigation says the same law is quietly rewriting the rules for what Americans can post. If you treat the First Amendment as sacred ground, here is how a foreign regulator gained leverage over your feed, what its own documents reveal, and why the targeting runs in one direction.

Here are the facts:

What the documents show:

What the media is not telling you: Regulators publicly claim the law applies only to illegal content in Europe, yet subpoenaed documents show they are targeting core political speech that is neither harmful nor illegal.

You did not vote for a European commissioner and cannot vote one out. That is precisely why a foreign law reaching American keyboards should alarm anyone who values self-government. The X appeal is the first real test of whether Brussels can set the terms of American debate, and it is worth following all the way to the ruling.

-The Editors

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June Low For Gold In Play? thumbnail

June Low For Gold In Play?

By Neland Nobel

Written by Neland Nobel

Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes

New readers may have to go back to the archives to fully absorb the thread of these comments. See January 28, May 2, June 9, and June 18.

The quick summary is that we looked for gold to peak earlier in the year because of its excessive parabolic action (gold bullion hit $5,600 per ounce on January 29th, the day after our report), and that corrections after parabolic moves can be large and painful. The greater the upside excess, the bigger the pendulum swings during the corrective phase.

However, we felt this was a healthy correction within the context of an overall bull market because central bank purchases, government fiscal and monetary excesses, and the search for non-dollar reserve assets would preserve the longer-term trend.

Later, in our piece on June 9th, we showed that the correction was within historical norms and that returns after the market falls below the 200-day moving average have consistently been good.

We hope readers appreciate that technical analysis is not science, and that in the short term, markets can do surprising things. This can be especially so with the gold market, which, because it has no earnings, makes conventional fundamental analysis more challenging.  In addition, since governments and central banks are involved, you have players who can act in relative secrecy and whose actions are only later revealed.

It would be fair to say that fundamentals move the markets in the longer term, over years, but that market psychology and capital flows are more influential in the shorter term. The value of technical analysis is that it can tell you something is going on, even if there has not been a shift in fundamentals.

On that last point about central bank buying, the World Gold Council continues to report that central bank purchases have been robust and that central banks have underreported their purchases.

How much have they underreported? WGC reports that it has captured about 22% of actual purchases, implying buying is 4 to 5 times higher than reported!  Others suggest it could be worse than that, by a factor of 15. That is a stunning revelation.

Apparently, reporting to the IMF is “voluntary,” and only by looking at actual deliveries and refinery data was this discrepancy discovered.

That data further supports our long-term view, but our short-term market call is now being tested.

We suggested a low in June, with likely upward turn after the 4th of July holiday.  Further, we thought the market would at least test its 200-day moving average, or perhaps a bit lower. It did.

Markets often go through a fairly predictable sequence.  They peak on excessive momentum and sentiment, fall through the support of short-term moving averages, and gravitate towards long-term moving averages and Fibonacci retracements.

Near the bottom, sentiment should be very bleak and momentum very oversold, almost a reverse mirror image of the conditions at the top.

Then you want to see “divergences” in the technical data.  Typical examples would be a market forming a double bottom, with the last bottom slightly lower.  However, on the second bottom, you likely will see momentum indicators like Relative Strength or MACD not go as low as before.  This signals downside momentum is running out of power.  Momentum not confirming the price action is the divergence we were looking for.

Then you would like to see reversal signals, and finally you want to see scattered buy signals.

On June 9th, we provided a list of items from our “bottom confirmation checklist” to help prospective buyers track their progress.  We mentioned that we did not think we were quite “there yet”, but a June low was likely, and things looked to turn to the upside after the July 4th break.

We hope readers appreciate that such specificity leaves us open to looking like idiots if things don’t turn out that way.  When you put opinions in print, there is no place to hide. But on the other hand, analysts and prognosticators who write vaguely and with a lot of qualifiers are not of much use, are they?  We would prefer to call it as we see it and let our readers, who we believe are intelligent, weigh this advice.

The best that can be done with the tools available is to prepare the investor to buy a “zone of value” if they are so inclined, and not to expect exact precision from any financial writer.

The low for gold was $3942 on June 30th, right in line with our expectation before July 4th.  Further, the price retreat is remarkably close to a 50% retracement, whether the low of $1809 or $2536. Such 50% retracements, and even .618 retracements, are common in big corrections.

Note that on the second low, RSI (top panel) and MACD both show divergences (they did not go to new lows when the market made a lower low). It is a little easier to see in the exploded panels on the right.

MACD looks to be turning upward, and we have had some decent signals on our list be fulfilled, such as the 10-day exponential turning up and some nice white candles.

We mentioned that because the gold shares tend to lead, we would expect to see buy signals there first.  We now have formal point-and-figure buy signals on the major ETFs, GDX and GDXJ, and we also see them on broad indexes like HUI, the Gold Bugs Index.

Why do gold mining shares tend to lead bullion out of a bottom?  Basically, above-ground bullion, if marked to market, is worth about $29 trillion.  The total market capitalization of the gold/silver mining sector is a little over $1 trillion.  Such a smaller market cap makes initial capital flows easier to move price, and the mines have operating leverage, which makes them more sensitive as well.

That is why actual buy signals on the mining shares are important at this stage.

GDX generated a point-and-figure buy and a double-top breakout on July 2nd.

In addition, Sentimentrader OPTIX has turned upward, and the Bullish Percentage from Stockcharts for mining shares has risen from the incredibly low reading of 0 to the mid-20s.  The latter would indicate some breadth or broader participation in mining shares.

These are very specific criteria we mentioned on June 9th.

So, a lot of what we wanted to see is happening within the projected timeframe.

Additionally, we would like to see the low hold, and the market pass above the 200-day moving average and hold there for at least a week or so.  We need to contain any retreat and see a series of rising bottoms.  Turning the 21-day and 50-day moving averages upward would also be desirable.  But the time the 200-day starts to turn upward, a good deal of the recovery move could be behind us.

Getting above $4350 in the next few weeks would be an added positive indicator.

We would NOT like to see a sharp rise, and the move abort, canceling recent reversal and buy signals, cause MACD to turn back down, and break down to another new low.  Rather, a quiet recovery, turning indicators positive, putting in a series of rising bottoms, is what we would prefer to see.

And very briefly, silver has gone through an even more severe correction and is slightly behind gold in the bottoming sequence.

Having said all that, things do seem to be lining up remarkably well with our call for a June low and a better second half of 2026 for precious metals.

How many signals does one need before acting?  No one signal is sufficient.  Scaling in with multiple purchases as long as things progress as described may be the safest course of action.  There is no single indicator that will always work.  It is better to rely on the preponderance of evidence and have one charting method confirm another.

All of this discussion is based on the assumption that the reader is interested in owning gold and that it is appropriate in your financial plan. Be sure to consult with your financial advisor before acting.

We think gold has considerable upside potential for the macro reasons we have cited.  A recent survey of wealthy “family offices” by UBS showed that most hardly owned any gold whatsoever.

That report gave us considerable comfort.  We want to avoid investing in a financial mania, but it is hard to have one if the investment in question is hardly owned by the public.

-Neland Nobel

Neland ‘Neil’ Nobel was born in Uniontown, Pennsylvania, and moved to Arizona in 1961. He attended ASU and earned a B.A. and an M.A. in history, with a specialty in economic and military history.  He graduated Summa Cum Laude and received a Richard M. Weaver Fellowship from the Intercollegiate Studies Institute.  He spent the next 45 years in the financial services industry, ending his career with a 25-year run with UBS as a portfolio manager and Certified Financial Planner. In retirement, he remains active, having founded the Prickly Pear in 2020 and continuing to contribute content.  In his spare time, he is a certified firearms instructor and runs a hiking club and two shooting clubs.  He is married with three children and three grandchildren.

The author’s views are their own and do not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Investing involves risk; please consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

*****

Charts courtesy of Stockcharts.com.  All facts and data are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but their accuracy is not guaranteed.  Consult with a qualified financial planner or do your own research. This is not an offer to buy or sell securities and is offered solely for public education.

 

Sourced from PRICKLY PEAR

Key Business Headlines: July 7

By Jake Novak

Written by Jake Novak

Estimated Reading Time: 2 minutes

STOCKS/ECONOMY

  • Stock futures are mixed, with the Dow futures higher and Nasdaq futures lower, after Monday’s 156-point gain for the Dow, larger 0.7 percent advance for the S&P 500, and a 1.1 percent rally for the Nasdaq. The up again, down again trade for the chip sector is down again this morning.
  • The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond is up to 4.48 percent.
  • Gold is up to the $4,175 per ounce level. Silver is down to the $62 per ounce level. Bitcoin is at the $63,400 level.
  • Asian markets closed lower today. The Nikkei sold off by 2.1 percent, the Hang Seng lost 0.5 percent, the Kospi dropped 4.9 percent, and the Shenzhen fell 1.2 percent.

OIL/ENERGY

  • U.S. crude prices are up and back to the $69 a barrel level.
  • Gasoline prices are holding at $3.79 a gallon, national average.

IRAN WAR

  • Iran has once again fired missiles at defenseless commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

CHIPS OY OY

  • Samsung reported a huge profit increase, but investors are spooked by how much the company is spending to produce AI chips. Samsung shares are down 7 percent in overseas market trading this morning.
  • News about Samsung is sending shares of U.S.-based chipmakers down in the premarket. Micron Technology (MU) shares are down 4 percent, Nvidia (NVDA) shares are down 2 percent, and Qualcomm (QCOM) shares are down 3 percent.

PHARMA

  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) is buying Crinetics Pharmaceuticals (CRNX) to acquire Crinetics’ treatments for hormonal diseases. The deal is valued at $10 billion. Crinetics shares are up 99 percent in the premarket, and Vertex shares are slightly lower.

-Jake Novak

Jake Novak is a 30-yr. veteran TV news producer, editorial columnist, & fmr. diplomat with expertise in politics, business news, culture, & media analysis. He is also the author of Jake’s Takes on Substack.

The author’s views are their own and do not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Investing involves risk; please consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Sourced from PRICKLY PEAR

Tech Rally Fades Fast: Samsung Beats Big But Fails to Wow

By Kenny Polcari

Written by Kenny Polcari

Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes

Things You Need to Know

  • Well, tech stole the show yesterday and will steal it again today!
  • While SK Hynix is oversubscribed, Samsung is getting clocked!
  • Bonds are now entering the ‘danger’ zone. Oil up, Gold down.
  • Prices Paid declines; PMI remains in the expansion zone – that’s good!

Stocks ended Monday higher as investors ran right back into technology, semiconductors and the broader AI complex after last week’s decline. (Although that will most likely change this morning… see below.

The Dow gained 155 points, closing above 53,000 for the first time. The S&P added 55 pts, the Nasdaq came in second place – rising by 288 pts or 1.1%, the Russell added 14 pts, the Transports got sold – losing 144 pts, the Equal Weight S&P essentially ended the day flat – it was up 1 pt, while the Mag 7 stole the show – rising 626 pts or 1.9%. The interesting thing here is that yesterday, the rally was NOT as broad as it has been – note the performance of the Equal Weight S&P…… In fact, more S&P names fell than rose, suggesting this was a move driven by oversold tech names.

I mean just look at the AI ecosystem….Tech up 1.6%, Disruptive Tech up 2.9%, Cyber up 2.5%, Semi’s up 2.7%, Software up 1.3%, Memory name ETF – DRAM exploded – rising by 6.8% – and speaking of the memory names – SK Hynix is prepping to launch their formal US listing on the Nasdaq on Friday – attempting to take advantage of ‘surging investor demand for the high-flying memory chip sector’…..and as you can imagine – the offering is already oversubscribed – meaning there is more demand than supply! In yet another sign that investors continue to chase anything tied to the AI infrastructure story.

But is this all about to change? Overnight Samsung (South Korea) reported earnings…..

They beat on all metrics… reporting operating income of 89.4 trillion Won – vs. the estimate of 84.2 trillion. Revenue doubled to 171 trillion Won – again beating the expectations – yet they ‘FAILED TO WOW’ even after profits surged more than 19x as the question remains……Can these valuations continue, and can the spending continue?

So, what happened…. they sold it off sharply…. down 8.3% …..taking the whole tech sector down leaving the Kospi (South Korean Index) down 4.6%! Will this be the market’s reaction this quarter? Companies beat, but if they don’t RAISE enough or sound giddy enough – they hit the SELL button?

Now let’s not light our hair on fire – the stock was up 159% going into the report… so is an 8% drop a disaster? I’d say no, but it depends on when you got in and how you handle risk……Are you overweight tech? Are you overweight Samsung? Are you levered up with a 2 & 3 x’s ETF that amplifies the up move while also amplifying the down move…. I mean there are so many ways this could go…. You could have been short Samsung and in that case you WON! I guess the point is – you NEVER know what the reaction will be. The lesson isn’t that Samsung is broken. It’s that expectations have become extraordinarily high. In a market priced to perfection, beating estimates is no longer enough—you have to continue to raise the bar and WOW them!

Nasdaq futures are down 300 pts….MU, MRVL, NVDA, AVGO and AMD are also posting declines in the pre-mkt……… I suspect – much of yesterday’s gains in tech will be today’s losses – but let’s be clear, I am not saying the tech trade is over, it’s just not gonna have a good day today. Can you imagine what would have happened if they missed! It would have been a bloodbath! And the world turns…. No matter what – my sense is that SK Hynix does NOT see a retreat in demand….

Bonds did very little – the TLT and TLH lost less than 0.1%… and that kept yields steady… This morning, though, bonds are under pressure (think about the reaction to tech), sending yields up – the 10 yr is now kissing 4.5%, and the 30 yr is now above 5%, putting us back in the danger zone.

Eco data yesterday showed that the Services PMI remained firmly in expansion territory—a positive sign for the economy. Even better, the Prices Paid component declined to 67.7 from 71.3, reinforcing the trend we saw in last week’s Manufacturing PMI report. While inflation pressures remain elevated, they’re continuing to ease at the margin, and that’s exactly what policymakers need to see.

Today brings little in the way of market-moving economic data, so investors will likely turn their attention to Wednesday’s release of the June FOMC meeting minutes—the first since Kevy Warsh took over as Fed Chair. Will they reveal anything we don’t already know? Probably not. But I do expect the tone to be different. Markets will be looking for clues about how Kevy intends to communicate policy going forward and whether his approach differs meaningfully from JJ’s, Janet’s or Benny’s, returning to a more Greenspan-style approach.

Oil is higher by about $1 this morning, trading near $69.50 a barrel, as traders weigh competing headlines. On the one hand, OPEC+ and the UAE are bringing additional supply to the market. On the other hand, reports of renewed attacks on commercial vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz serve as another reminder that geopolitical risks in the region remain very much alive and ‘normalization’ is not yet ‘normal’. The market continues to balance improving supply against the possibility of renewed disruptions.

Gold, meanwhile, continues to churn. It’s down about $35 this morning to $4,130. Technically, the chart suggests gold remains locked in a broad $4,000–$4,400 trading range. Unless interest-rate expectations shift meaningfully, I suspect that’s where it stays for now.

So overnight – Asian markets got punched in the face – the Kospi down 4.6%, Taiwan down 2.3%, Japan down 2.1%, China lost 1% while Hong Kong and Australia gave back just 0.3%.

European markets are not reacting yet… but it is early…. Germany and the Euro Stoxx are both down 0.4% while France, Spain, Italy, and the UK are all up by 0.3%.

US futures are reacting as expected… The anxiety in tech is causing investors to look at the Big Dow names…Dow futures are up 200 pts. The S&P is down 9, Nasdaq down 300, while the Russell is up 5.

The S&P closed at 7357 – up 55 pts…..How this Samsung story gets told will dictate the next move in tech and across the broader market. BlackRock framed it well, asking whether AI can turn today’s scarcity into tomorrow’s abundance. That is why earnings season matters so much. Investors want to hear from the hyperscalers. They want to know whether capital spending plans remain intact. They want to know whether management teams are still confident in the buildout. Because until those companies start cutting AI budgets, the infrastructure story remains alive and well.

In the end – the AI investment thesis rests on one simple assumption — that all of this spending ultimately creates dramatically higher productivity, higher margins and stronger earnings. If it does, today’s valuations are justified. If it does not, then those valuations become much harder to defend.

Add in the uncertainty surrounding the midterms, and it only raises the temperature. Overnight, we saw that Democratic Maine Senate candidate Graham Platner’s run for the roses is all but over -after more negative headlines hit the tape concerning his personal life. Suddenly, the party that was all excited about this new candidate – wants to distance themselves from his latest mess…. leaving that race for the Senate in disarray for the Dems. Now remember – politics do NOT price stocks in the long term, but they can add drama along the way, and that, my friends, is the opportunity.

Take good care,

Kp

Kenny Polcari is a partner and Chief Market Strategist at Slatestone Wealth – A boutique wealth advisory firm with $2 billion dollars of investor assets under management. In this role, his responsibilities range from market and economic analysis to investor education interpreting the ever changing economic and market landscape on behalf of Slatestone and how those impacts may affect future investment and planning strategies on behalf of their clients. With more than 40 years of industry experience as a member of the NYSE serving institutional investors both at home and abroad – he is a seasoned and well-known voice on the markets. You may recognize him from his many years serving as a market analyst on Fox Business and CNBC or his ‘Trader Talk’ Podcast on the Yahoo Finance Channel. For more, please visit his Substack HERE.

Disclaimer. Source: Bloomberg, CNBC, Reuters, Wall Street Journal

This media segment contains general market commentary based on publicly available information and is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Any discussion of companies, securities, or asset performance relates solely to those assets and does not represent the performance of any firm investment strategy, portfolio, or client account. It should not be interpreted as portfolio performance or as a reflection of client results.

This content does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Opinions expressed reflect views at the time of the interview and may change without notice. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties and are not guarantees of future outcomes. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. The firm and its clients may hold positions in assets discussed, and holdings may change at any time.

The author’s views are their own and do not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Investing involves risk; please consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Sourced from PRICKLY PEAR

Two Election Rulings Just Changed How 2026 Gets Won: Your Briefing

By The Editors

Written by The Editors

Estimated Reading Time: 2 minutes

Two rulings, one week, and together they will shape how money moves and how ballots count in every competitive race on your ballot this fall.

The Supreme Court freed political parties to spend far more directly alongside their own candidates, then, a day earlier, let a state’s rule on late-arriving mail ballots stand. Here is what both decisions actually change.

The Rundown

  • The Supreme Court struck down federal limits on coordinated party spending in NRSC v. FEC, a 6-3 ruling that cleared the way for party committees to spend far more directly alongside their candidates.
  • A day earlier, in Watson v. Republican National Committee, a 5-4 ruling, the Court upheld Mississippi’s law counting mail ballots that arrive up to five days after Election Day, so long as they were postmarked on time.

By the numbers

Tit for tat

Follow the money

Free speech and the rule of law both cut in the same direction here, allowing parties to spend openly rather than through workarounds, and allowing a state’s own election law to stand rather than being overridden by federal judges after the fact.

-The Editors

Sourced from PRICKLY PEAR

Rolling Stone and the Making of a Counterculture Capitalist Success Story

By Paul McDonnold

Written by Paul McDonnold

Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes

TPP Editors’ Notes

  • Rolling Stone is a classic American success story, proving that even a movement built on anti-establishment rebellion could only survive and reach the masses by embracing the tools of grassroots capitalism, private property, and free markets.
  • Jann Wenner was a textbook entrepreneur who grew a massive media empire by listening to his consumers—noting that when the magazine tried to drift away from what its audience wanted in the 1980s, the “invisible hand” of market demand forced it to pivot back.
  • Wenner’s willingness to cross the political aisle during the Reagan era by hiring and befriending legendary libertarian humorist P.J. O’Rourke showcases a rare, old-school respect for free speech and dissenting viewpoints that feels entirely lost in today’s media.

In ‘The Rise of Hip Capitalism,’ author Charles L. Ponce de Leon traces how Rolling Stone fused countercultural rebellion with entrepreneurial ambition, turning cultural dissent into a media empire.

At a Palo Alto, California, record store in September 1975, the latest issue of Rolling Stone caught the eye of local high school student Charles L. Ponce de Leon. Rock band the Eagles gazed out from the cover in youthful, long-haired glory. Inside was a story by Cameron Crowe, himself only 18 at the time.

De Leon bought the issue, sparking a lasting fascination with Rolling Stone that eventually culminated in his recent book about the magazine’s first two decades. According to de Leon, a cultural historian, writing Rolling Stone and the Rise of Hip Capitalism was “an opportunity to go back in time and think about my own intellectual development.”

It was also an opportunity to assess the magazine’s influence on American culture in the decades following the sexual revolution. “Hip capitalism” was originally coined as a slur for people profiting from the counterculture. In de Leon’s telling, however, it describes how businesses such as Rolling Stone, health food stores, head shops, and others carried 1960s values into mainstream America.

For my money, his argument does not go far enough. Rolling Stone is a perfect example of how entrepreneurs enrich themselves by enriching the lives of consumers. Unfortunately, the magazine’s left-leaning editorial stance rarely acknowledged that reality.

More than personalities or anecdotes, de Leon’s story focuses on the magazine’s content. There is more detail on individual writers, articles, and editorial coverage than some readers will want. Still, he makes a compelling case for how, to quote the book’s subtitle, “a magazine born in the 1960s changed America.”

The story begins on October 17, 1967, when the first issue of Rolling Stone went to press. Its founder, Jann Wenner, was a 21-year-old University of California, Berkeley, dropout. Like many of his peers, he was into marijuana and music. But he was also passionate about journalism. With help from his mentor, Ralph J. Gleason, who had hired him as a reporter for the San Francisco publication Sunday Ramparts, Wenner decided to try his hand at entrepreneurship. Inspired by Billboard, the British weekly Melody Maker, and low-budget fanzines such as Crawdaddy!, Wenner saw an opening for a new publication.

“It would be more discriminating than Billboard,” de Leon writes, “more substantive than the teen magazines or mainstream newspapers, and more lively than Crawdaddy!”

Wenner wanted to use journalism to legitimize the counterculture and its music. But like any entrepreneur, he first had to marshal economic resources. He raised $7,500 through a letter-writing campaign, created a mock-up, and began selling advertising.

The Entrepreneur Who Sold the Counterculture

Building Rolling Stone from the ground up, Wenner was an entrepreneur in the fullest Austrian sense. He identified a niche where his own passions intersected with unmet consumer demand. For all the disdain many young people in the 1960s expressed toward “square” America, the nation’s prosperity had given them more purchasing power than previous generations. They exercised that consumer sovereignty by buying everything from transistor radios to Beatles hair spray.

Soon they were buying Rolling Stone. By 1970, paid circulation had climbed to nearly 200,000. The magazine combined growing professionalism with fierce editorial independence. Its reviewers were unafraid to criticize work they disliked, even by revered artists such as Bob Dylan and Led Zeppelin. The coverage felt authentic, and readers responded.

Writers such as Hunter S. Thompson and Tom Wolfe soon joined the masthead. They were pioneers of “New Journalism,” which broke with the detached, objective style that had long dominated the profession. Thompson’s now-classic Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas first appeared in Rolling Stone in 1971. Wolfe’s 1972 article on the final Apollo lunar mission became the foundation for his later book—and the eventual film—The Right Stuff.

With work like this, Wenner expanded Rolling Stone beyond music into culture, politics, and crime through long-form coverage such as its reporting on the Manson murders. Circulation reached 466,000 by 1976. The following year, Wenner relocated the magazine’s headquarters from San Francisco to New York City, still the journalistic capital of the nation.

The 1980s brought cultural change and a new president, Ronald Reagan. Rolling Stone continued to evolve. A redesign transformed it into a traditional glossy magazine. Coverage expanded to include personal computers and even video games. Music coverage was briefly deemphasized before readers made their dissatisfaction known. Entrepreneurship is a continual negotiation between entrepreneurs and consumers, and consumers always hold the stronger hand. A business must continually earn their loyalty or be displaced by one that will.

One thing that did not change was Rolling Stone‘s politics. From the beginning, both the magazine and Wenner leaned reliably left. Even so, Wenner made one notable concession to the more conservative climate of the 1980s by hiring libertarian humorist P. J. O’Rourke as a writer and editor. A former dope-smoking longhair turned necktie-wearing Reaganite, O’Rourke was, in many ways, the Republican answer to Hunter S. Thompson. He quickly became one of the magazine’s most popular voices.

O’Rourke and Wenner also became friends. In the acknowledgments to All the Trouble in the World, O’Rourke thanked Wenner for allowing him “the latitude to rave and vociferate, although he disagrees with almost all my opinions.” He then vowed to make a Republican of Wenner yet.

That never happened. But their friendship speaks well of Wenner’s openness to dissenting viewpoints. Perhaps he even recognized that his own career embodied many of the entrepreneurial principles O’Rourke admired. Either way, theirs was the kind of friendship — like that of Antonin Scalia and Ruth Bader Ginsburg — that feels increasingly rare today.

Capitalism, Culture, and Consequence

De Leon’s story of Rolling Stone ends with the publication’s twentieth anniversary in 1987. By that point, issues often ran over 100 pages, and paid circulation had surpassed 1.1 million.

The magazine’s story, of course, continued into the twenty-first century. But it became one of decline, and not only because of the usual challenges facing legacy print media. In 2014, more concerned with aligning itself with the cultural establishment than with getting the story right, the publication botched a now-discredited report of gang rape involving members of a University of Virginia fraternity. With that, Rolling Stone became “what it once claimed to abhor,” according to writer Mark Judge.

De Leon does not cover this episode. But in the epilogue, he does go somewhat starry-eyed for the sexual revolution values Rolling Stone helped mainstream. He connects capitalism to the ongoing victory of those values, a process he sees continuing until conservatives are left with “little recourse but to impose their increasingly unpopular social agenda through antimajoritarian and even authoritarian means.”

Some would argue that the political left is itself quite adept at such means. But de Leon gets this much correct: capitalism, rightly understood, can transcend politics. The progressive ownership of Ben & Jerry’s ice cream has as much right to earn a profit by appealing to consumers as the conservative ownership of Hobby Lobby does.

Rolling Stone is an example of the grassroots power of capitalism. It could not have emerged in an economy without individual initiative, private property, and free markets. And it made Wenner — who sold his remaining ownership stake in 2020 — considerably wealthy, powerful, and professionally successful.

Now 80, Wenner’s life has included plenty of faults. But in the end, the value he brought to the American economic table was both journalistic and entrepreneurial. And, as with free markets themselves, millions benefited from it.

-Paul McDonnold

Paul McDonnold is a freelance writer. His writing has appeared in the Christian Science Monitor, World Magazine, JStor Daily and other publications. He is the author of The Economics of Ego Surplus, a novel of economic terrorism, and has an MS in economic research from the University of North Texas.

This piece was reproduced with the permission of AIER. Any opinions articulated herein are those of the author, not The Prickly Pear. To read the original piece, please visit HERE.

Sourced from PRICKLY PEAR

SCOTUS Just Handed the President A Power No One Since FDR Has Had

By The Editors

Written by The Editors

Estimated Reading Time: 2 minutes

The Supreme Court just tore up a 91-year-old rule that limited a president’s ability to fire the people who run independent federal agencies, with a dissent read aloud from the bench in a rare show of protest. Readers grounded in the Constitution’s separation of powers should read this ruling twice, because whatever power it hands this president belongs to the next one too, whoever that turns out to be. Here is what changed, who is affected well beyond the one commissioner at the center of the case, and why this cuts in more than one direction.

The Facts

What’s Being Said

The counterargument

 

A conservative movement that believes in accountable, limited government should welcome a president who can fire his own subordinates and, in the very same breath, remain just as wary of unchecked executive power, no matter whose name is on the door next.

This is a genuine expansion of presidential authority, not a partisan gift, and it will outlast this administration entirely. Founding-document conservatives should judge it on that basis, not on who currently benefits.

-The Editors

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Washington Bets Huge on the Next Nuclear Renaissance: What’s the Cost?

By The Editors

Written by The Editors

Estimated Reading Time: 2 minutes

The Trump administration just committed $17.5 billion to jump-start 10 new large nuclear reactors, the biggest bet on nuclear power this country has made in a generation. Here is how it actually works, what it is meant to fix, and why the last time we tried something like this, it went badly over budget.

How it works

  • The Energy Department issued conditional loan commitments worth $17.5 billion to speed the deployment of 10 large nuclear reactors across the country.
  • The money will not flow directly to Westinghouse. It runs through five separate joint ventures, and Westinghouse and its utility partners must each commit $500 million in equity per project before the federal loan is unlocked.

What is this going to cost? Only two large reactors have been completed in the U.S. in recent decades. Those at Georgia’s Plant Vogtle were completed years late and billions of dollars over budget, which is exactly the track record this financing is built to break.

Follow the money

What Should You Watch For?

The takeaway: Government financing a private buildout is not small government, but if it delivers reliable power and real energy independence without another Vogtle-style cost overrun, most of us will cautiously take that trade. Execution, not the announcement, will decide whether this was worth it.

-The Editors

Sourced from PRICKLY PEAR

See Young Washington

By Neland Nobel

Written by Neland Nobel

Estimated Reading Time: 3 minutes

Angel Studios has released a biopic on the early years of George Washington.  A formative time for a man who would become quite important to America and the world.

The New York Times says, “The most bracing thing about “Young Washington” is its commitment to old-fashioned stodginess.”

The L.A. Times says, ” Young Washington’ is the dullest of history lessons.”

When I read that, I wondered if we had even seen the same movie.  Don’t believe it.  It is just their commitment to old-fashioned anti-Americanism. I will be guarded here; both reviews are steaming piles of bovine excrement.

The movie is quite accurate historically, although I spotted two liberties taken by the screenwriters.

Washington’s sidekick for his frontier adventures in the Ohio territory was a Daniel Boone character, Christopher Gist. They have him being killed off at Fort Necessity, giving Washington’s defeat there added personal poignancy. But Gist lived for about another five years and likely died of smallpox.

They have brother Lawrence around during the disaster of July 3, 1754, but in fact, he died of TB two years earlier.

But these are minor imperfections, likely used to shorten and smooth the timeline of events.

The major events are very correct; the wardrobe and action sequences are excellent, especially given it is a small-budget movie. You can see the complexity of Washington’s formation, and, lest we forget, he was a man of action.  He had musket balls go through his coat and his hat; he had horses shot out from under him. He had to lead men to their death.  He was a strong, huge man for his era.

Yet, he was a great dancer, liked to play rounders (early baseball), and wrote a book about manners when he was a young man. He read the classics, and was an exceptional horseman. He is about as different a material for President as you can think of, at least in today’s context.

Critics don’t like the God talk in the movie.  They simply show their ignorance.  Washington escaped from so many improbable circumstances untouched that contemporaries spoke of divine providence, as did Washington himself.  There was no other plausible explanation. Just because they are cynics does not mean they are allowed to rewrite history.

With just about all the British officers killed in the Battle of Monongahela, he managed a defensive retreat that saved what was left of the British Army and the Virginia Militia. Everyone at the time spoke of his courage and leadership, hard qualities to find in such a young man, or any man. Press reports made it all the way to England.

I was fortunate enough to spend my childhood just down Chestnut Ridge from Jumonville Glenn, where Washington likely started the French and Indian War (The Seven Years’ War in Europe) after losing control of his native allies. I got to spend many afternoons in the area around Braddock’s Grave, his road, and Fort Necessity.

Personal attachment aside, the movie is simply good cinema.  It is entertaining first and educational second.

The story is accurate for the most part; the battle scenes are excellent and authentic; the production quality is high; and it is about time we had some decent movies about American heroes.  Kelsey Grammer and Ben Kingsley are excellent journeyman actors, but the young Washington, portrayed by a young British actor, is very believable.

So far, it has raked in more than $20 million in just a few days, and it earns a 92% Popcorn score, Rotten Tomatoes’ official audience score.

Take the family to see it, especially if you have some young boys.  They need to see some real heroes, and so do you.  And, you have an obligation to support movies like this and those who have the courage to break ranks with Hollywood.

-Neland Nobel

Neland ‘Neil’ Nobel was born in Uniontown, Pennsylvania, and moved to Arizona in 1961. He attended ASU and earned a B.A. and an M.A. in history, with a specialty in economic and military history.  He graduated Summa Cum Laude and received a Richard M. Weaver Fellowship from the Intercollegiate Studies Institute.  He spent the next 45 years in the financial services industry, ending his career with a 25-year run with UBS as a portfolio manager and Certified Financial Planner. In retirement, he remains active, having founded the Prickly Pear in 2020 and continuing to contribute content.  In his spare time, he is a certified firearms instructor and runs a hiking club and two shooting clubs.  He is married with three children and three grandchildren. 

Sourced from PRICKLY PEAR

Retired Brass Cheer the Governors Who Said No to Trump on July 4th

By The Editors

Written by The Editors

Estimated Reading Time: 2 minutes

This week, nineteen retired military and defense officials put their names behind Democratic governors who refused to send National Guard troops to Washington for the America 250 celebration, an unusual alliance that ought to make any principled reader pay attention. The details on the ground, starting with who is actually giving these troops their orders, are messier than either side’s press release lets on.

Breaking it down

What insiders are saying

The spin cycle

What This Posturing Means: This was not about a broader deployment of the National Guard in D.C. It was about the largest July 4th celebration in our nation’s history, and securing it properly for the citizens and dignitaries attending. Side note: The National Guard in D.C. has brought crime down to historically low numbers.

We have crossed a pivotal line when these “leaders” feel it is appropriate to let their personal feelings toward one politician leak into their security decisions about national security. Part of the tradition we celebrated on July 4th was the concept of service to America over politics. When the call to serve was issued, our heroes answered it regardless of who won the latest election. These folks would do well to remember this.

-The Editors

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China Makes Major Show of Naval Force: Your Briefing

By The Editors

Written by The Editors

Estimated Reading Time: 2 minutes

Taiwan’s own security services just logged the largest number of Chinese ships they have ever tracked, right as Beijing enters what officials call its annual window for testing new tactics. Here is what the buildup actually looks like, and why Taipei’s own defense checkbook still hasn’t kept pace with the danger it faces.

State of play: Taiwan’s National Security Bureau says it is tracking more than 110 Chinese military and coast guard ships moving up and down the First Island Chain, the highest count Taipei has documented.

The Facts

Follow the Money: Taiwan’s legislature passed a $25 billion special defense supplement on May 8, most of it earmarked for HIMARS rocket systems, Javelin anti-tank missiles, howitzers, and loitering munitions bought from the United States.

How did we get here? President Lai has pledged to hit 3 percent of GDP on defense this year and 5 percent by 2030, still well short of the 10 percent President Trump has publicly pushed Taipei toward, and well short of what deterrence probably requires.

Worth Watching: Taiwanese officials say the warning time before any potential attack is shortening, a line worth remembering the next time someone in Washington calls a Taiwan contingency a distant hypothetical.

One More Thing

  • Most coverage treats this as a routine seasonal exercise story. It is happening in the same window U.S. carrier strength is stretched thin managing the Iran drawdown, and while Taiwan’s own legislature has spent much of the past year fighting itself over how much of the bill Taipei should actually pay.

Deterrence only works if the other side believes it, and readers who remember the Cold War know ambiguity has a price. It is fair to ask why an ally this exposed still hasn’t matched its rhetoric with its own checkbook, regardless of which party sits in the White House.

-The Editors

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Our Stack of Stuff: July 6

By The Editors

Written by The Editors

Estimated Reading Time: 4 minutes

(Must read or watch)  Sundance: President Trump Freedom 250 Mount Rushmore Speech – Video and Transcript. Watch the superb pro-America 31-minute speech.

President Trump at Mount Rushmore July 3, 2026: Communism is the exact opposite of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. It’s death, tyranny, and the pursuit of evil. The godless communist morality states that anything is justified to bring about inhuman visions and to really propose what’s good. They don’t want good. They don’t love God, and they don’t want God. They don’t love religion and they don’t want religion and they won’t have it. But we will not let them win. They have no chance against us. They have no respect for law, justice, principle, tradition, or your God-given rights. It’s an ideology of mass theft, mass control, mass lies, and mass murder. Such doctrines can be given no quarter in a democracy because the first thing they do when they get into power is turn around and destroy it. It always is destroyed, just as communists have done in other countries all over the world, no matter where you look. Very simply, communism represents the worst ideas and abuses in history by the worst people. The American founding represents the best ideas and traditions in history by the best people like you.

You can be loyal to Karl Marx or you can be loyal to America. You can be a communist or you can be a patriot. You cannot be both.

U.S. Department of Justice: Justice Department Rejects International Criminal Court Jurisdiction Over U.S. Persons

In a letter this week addressed to the President of the International Criminal Court (ICC), Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche wrote that the Department of Justice rejects any assertion of jurisdiction by the ICC over Americans. The United States is not a party to the Rome Statute and has never consented to the ICC’s authority. As a matter of international law, a treaty cannot bind a non-consenting country. Accordingly, the ICC has no jurisdiction over Americans — anywhere in the world — and any attempt to assert such authority is illegitimate, unlawful, and a direct affront to the sovereignty of the United States. “The ICC has acted in an increasingly lawless and illegitimate manner,” writes Blanche in his letter to Judge Tomoko Akane, President of the International Criminal Court. “Its record of . . . Read more.

Rice: Trump to cut solar, wind subsidies on July 4th

Estimates suggest the subsidies have cost taxpayers more than $141 billion over the past 16 years, more than any other energy source. […]  The Working Families Tax Cuts, a signature piece of President Trump’s tax legislation signed a year ago, set Saturday as the deadline for federal tax credit subsidies on any new solar or wind projects not currently under construction. U.S. Department of Energy Secretary Chris Wright touted the subsidy deadline and criticized solar and wind energy projects in a video posted to social media Thursday. “The wind doesn’t always blow, and the sun doesn’t always shine,” Wright said. “They drive up the system costs and increase Americans’ electricity prices.” Read more.

Turley: “You Cannot Kill the Beast Until You Name it”: Democratic Politician Denounces the Declaration of Independence

Pennsylvania state and socialist Chris Rabb, the Democratic nominee for Pennsylvania’s 3rd Congressional District, has joined the growing chorus of Democrats denouncing the founding documents and core institutions in the country on our 250th anniversary. The Democratic socialist is running unopposed for Congress and will almost certainly be a member of Congress after November. Rabb spoke at an event billed as “America at 250 — Trump Fascism, Historical Erasure, and the Battle Over Truth” at People’s Plaza on Independence Mall in Philadelphia.

He denounced the country as based on “stolen land and stolen labor.” He lashed out at the Declaration of Independence: . . .[…]  Rabb is not the first figure on the far left to denounce the “American dream” and “the Protestant work ethic” as harmful “myths.” He pledged that he would be “one of the few unapologetic reparationists going to Congress,” joining a growing number of Democrats demanding billions in reparations for black Americans. Read more.

Batya Ungar-Sargon posted on X: 80% of DSA members have a college degree. 60% work professional jobs. Just 4% are blue-collar. 85% are white. This isn’t a working-class movement but an elite one, for whom “Free Palestine” and “Abolish ICE” operate as a smokescreen for class privilege—just like climate and trans activism and identity politics once did. Watch the video.

Emily Goodin & Ally Goelz – nypost.com: “America will never be a communist country — won’t happen,” he vowed. “Communism is a loser, and it always will be.” “Our warriors did not fight communism on battlefields across the world, only to have that menace rear its ugly head right back here in America. We’re not going to let it happen,” Trump continued.  “All these talks from the communists, they haven’t got a chance,” claimed the president in response to candidates backed by the Democratic Socialists of America triumphing in multiple Democratic primaries this cycle. “We don’t want communists in our country,” he added. “Never worked, and it never will work.” Trump reiterated his warnings from a speech one day earlier at Mount Rushmore, a sign he plans to hammer the issue throughout the midterm campaign. “We like to stop a threat like that immediately,” he said, describing communism as “like a cancer. You got to cut it out, you got to cut it out fast.”

Max Grinstein – Washingtonexaminer.com: UFC CEO Dana White and President Donald Trump met in the Oval Office to strategize about possible weather delays moments before Trump gave the all-clear to “load the arena,” according to a new documentary about the production of the UFC’s Freedom 250 event at the White House. The event proceeded with only minor delays despite looming storm clouds, which broke up directly over the White House. “God, Mother Nature, whatever you want to call it, those clouds splitting and going around us — listen, I don’t know how to describe it, but it was pretty damn awesome,” White says in the two-part documentary by Fox Nation.

-The Editors

This piece was produced in collaboration with Daily News Roundup. Any opinions articulated herein are those of the author, not The Prickly Pear. 

Sourced from PRICKLY PEAR

Tech & Mag 7 Take Hit on Soft June NFP Data, Value, Defensives, and Broader Market Catch a Bid

By Kenny Polcari

Estimated Reading Time: 7 minutes

Things You Need to Know

  • Today is the first day of trading for the Trump Accts – the opening bell is to be rung from the WH. Each acct now has $1k – compliments of the FED gov’t.
  • SPCX will be added to the QQQ tonight.
  • Earnings are just a week away – the bar has been raised.
  • OPEC+ will raise production – oil falls.
  • Lots of eco data in the weeks ahead – next FED meeting on the 29th.

Good morning, the 4th is behind us, and we are now well into summertime. The mid-terms are getting closer, earnings season is about to start, and the FED meeting is only 23 days away – leaving so many to take sides on what the next move will be…..Lots to discuss – so let’s get going…

Thursday may have been one of the most important trading days of the summer—not because of where the market finished, but because of what was happening underneath the surface.

Now remember – it was a holiday-shortened week – volumes were subdued, and that always means that moves can be exaggerated. The Dow surged by 585 pts, the S&P ended the day flat, the Nasdaq got taken out to the woodshed again – shedding 207 pts as investors, traders and even the algos continue to take money off the table in the big, sexy names, the Russell lost 16 pts, the Transports gained 55 pts the Equal Weight S&P gained 65 pts while the Mag 7 ended the day down 390 pts or 1.1%…by far the worst performer of the day…..again – think big growth, expensive valuations.

If you’ve been reading my notes over the past several weeks, we’ve been discussing the difference between rotation and liquidation. Thursday was just another example of that theme.

This wasn’t investors abandoning the market. This was about taking profits in some of the year’s biggest winners and putting that capital to work in sectors that had been left behind. That’s rotation.

Here are the sectors that got hit – Tech, Consumer Discretionary, Communications, Semiconductors, Cybersecurity, Quantum names fell 4%. But the real damage was in the memory stocks. The DRAM ETF (memory stocks) sank 8%, with MU down 5.5%, WDC off 9.9%, and STX tumbling 10%.

None of this should come as a surprise. These stocks have been among the market’s hottest performers, so some profit-taking after an extraordinary run is perfectly normal. At this point, it looks more like a valuation reset than a change in the long-term AI story. Technically, STX has already broken below its trendline, while MU and WDC are now testing theirs. The next few sessions will tell us whether those levels hold—or whether there’s another leg lower before buyers step back in.

So where did the money go? It rotated into the more defensive and economically sensitive parts of the market. Utilities, Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Basic Materials, Real Estate, Industrials, Software, Metals & Mining, and value stocks outperformed growth, with the value trade up about 1%.

What’s important is what didn’t happen. The VIX did not rise – it fell 2.7%, remaining firmly in the complacency zone, while the bond market was essentially unchanged, leaving the 2-year yielding 4.13%, the 10-year at 4.48%, and the 30-year at 4.98%. In other words, there was no flight to safety—just a rotation out of some of the extended winners and into other areas of the market. This morning, Treasuries are catching a bid, nudging yields about 2 bps lower in the 2-year and 10-year, while the 30-year yield is off roughly 1 bp.

The catalyst for Thursday’s stock move was the June NFP report. And it was not terrible; it was just ‘not as good as expected ’. For June, we created 57,000 new jobs – half of what we expected. Average hourly earnings m/m & y/y came in right on target, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell from 4.3% to 4.2% – which sounds confusing, no? How can it fall when we created half the number of jobs?

And here is the answer: The government only counts someone as unemployed if they don’t have a job AND are actively looking for one. When people stop looking for work and they LEAVE the labor force altogether, they are no longer counted as unemployed. So, even though job growth was weaker, enough people exited the workforce that the unemployment rate actually declined.

The market understood that immediately, and so investors focused on slowing job growth—not the lower unemployment rate. That reinforced the belief that inflation pressures are easing and that Fed Chair Kevy Warsh has less reason to tighten (raise rates) – which doesn’t mean that he has the green light to cut rates either…It just means more holding and waiting and assessing. The next FOMC meeting takes place on July 28/29th…. between now and then, we will get a boatload of eco data as well as about 50% of S&P earnings….so sit tight – there’s a lot going on.

Next up- the start of second-quarter earnings season, and this matters, as this earnings season may prove to be one of the most important we’ve seen in years.

Why? Because Wall Street analysts have raised the bar, creating a much higher hurdle for companies. According to FactSet, Earnings growth expectations are now about 23% on revenue growth of about 11%.

If it all ‘clicks’ and companies hit those numbers, it would mark a second consecutive quarter of better-than-20% profit growth; if it doesn’t, then watch out below.

And here is the part that you need to consider…..Analysts don’t simply wake up one morning and decide to raise estimates. Those revisions usually reflect conversations with management teams and guidance from CFO offices. Companies (CFO’s) understand exactly where expectations are, and if those numbers were unrealistic, management would push back.

MU was the latest example of that…recall how many people thought the estimates were too ‘robust’, almost impossible to hit, yet management said nothing; they kept quiet and why? Because they knew they were going to crush it, they kept their mouths shut. If they thought the numbers were too high, they would have steered the analysts lower, because the last thing any CEO or CFO wants to see is their stock get smashed on earnings day due to overly high expectations. Especially in the tech space….. I mean come on – who’s kidding who?

So again, this earnings season isn’t just about beating estimates; it’s about the guidance and the need to raise guidance and convince investors that the enormous capital being poured into AI infrastructure is beginning to generate sustainable profits.

The season ‘unofficially’ kicks off next week with PEP (Consumer demand) on the 9th, DAL (Travel demand) on the 10th, and then it becomes official when the BIG banks hit the tape – JPM, C, GS, WFC all reporting on the 14th.

Now – while Technology will once again command most of the headlines, this earnings season is shaping up to be much broader than just AI and the Mag 7. Analysts expect strength across many of the economically sensitive sectors, including Energy, Industrials, and Materials, reflecting continued investment in infrastructure, manufacturing, and the buildout of the AI ecosystem.

Financials will offer an important read on the health of the economy through loan growth, credit quality, and capital markets activity (think sales & trading and Investment banking). Recall that one of my key metrics is the growth (or not) of the ‘Loan Loss Portfolio’ because that gives you insight into what the C-suite really thinks about the economy and the consumer.

Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples will provide insight into whether Americans are still willing—and able—to keep spending. Taken all together, these reports should give us one of the clearest pictures yet of whether the economy is merely slowing to a more sustainable pace or continuing to support the market’s optimistic outlook.

Remember – Investors do not want “good enough”, they will demand excellence and btw the market has no choice either…. stocks are priced to near perfection…….so any sense of weakness, no matter how small – could produce outsized selling in the name. When expectations are elevated, the margin for error becomes razor thin. Companies that beat expectations and raise guidance should be rewarded, while those that miss lower forecasts, or suggest that AI spending, consumer demand, or margins are beginning to soften could face real selling pressure.

Oil is trading lower this morning, down 0.75% at $68.20 – this on news that OPEC + has decided to up production beginning in August. This continues to support the story of lower oil prices in the weeks and months ahead, and if that happens, it takes more pressure off of inflation.

Gold is trading at $4,150 after finding support at $ 4,000. The idea that the FED will not raise rates is helping to support the story, and in fact, gold bugs continue to bet that rates will drop, and if that happens, gold should trade higher. The chart shows we are in the $ 4,000/$4,400 trading range. My sense is that rates remain unchanged so gold will continue to churn in here.

Eco data include S&P Services PMI and ISM Services PMI – both expected to remain in the expansion zone. The ISM Prices Paid component is expected to come in at 67.5 – down from 71 – suggesting prices for services are coming down, which is a positive and further supports the idea of no rate HIKE. (Recall that last week’s Manufacturing PMI Prices Paid component also declined substantially.)

European markets are mixed – not up or down big at all – just continuing to digest the recent moves as investors there await the start of earnings season.

US futures are UP this morning…. Dow futures up 36, S&P’s up 35, the Nasdaq up 315 pts (that makes sense after last week’s beating), while the Russell is up 4. None of the indexes are either overbought or oversold on the RSI scale – so we can expect more churn here as the new week begins.

SPCX will be added to the QQQ Index tonight – all that means is more buying by the indexes and passive funds.

Remember – markets do not move in straight lines, trees do not grow to the sky, new narratives evolve and leadership changes, but disciplined investing never goes out of style.

Take good care,

Kp

Kenny Polcari is a partner and Chief Market Strategist at Slatestone Wealth – A boutique wealth advisory firm with $2 billion dollars of investor assets under management. In this role, his responsibilities range from market and economic analysis to investor education interpreting the ever changing economic and market landscape on behalf of Slatestone and how those impacts may affect future investment and planning strategies on behalf of their clients. With more than 40 years of industry experience as a member of the NYSE serving institutional investors both at home and abroad – he is a seasoned and well-known voice on the markets. You may recognize him from his many years serving as a market analyst on Fox Business and CNBC or his ‘Trader Talk’ Podcast on the Yahoo Finance Channel. For more, please visit his Substack HERE.

Disclaimer. Source: Bloomberg, CNBC, Reuters, Wall Street Journal

This media segment contains general market commentary based on publicly available information and is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Any discussion of companies, securities, or asset performance relates solely to those assets and does not represent the performance of any firm investment strategy, portfolio, or client account. It should not be interpreted as portfolio performance or as a reflection of client results.

This content does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Opinions expressed reflect views at the time of the interview and may change without notice. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties and are not guarantees of future outcomes. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. The firm and its clients may hold positions in assets discussed, and holdings may change at any time.

The author’s views are their own and do not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Investing involves risk; please consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

The LA Gang That Ran a Trafficking Corridor: Stunning Crime Update

By The Editors

Written by The Editors

Estimated Reading Time: 2 minutes

For five years, a street gang openly ran a sex trafficking market along 3.5 miles of Figueroa Street in South Los Angeles, minors included. This week, the feds finally dropped the hammer: a 65-count RICO indictment, the first-ever gang racketeering case built on human trafficking in the Central District of California. The question isn’t why now. It’s why it took this long. Here is the rundown.

What’s Happening

  • Ten defendants were arrested in “Operation Broken Blade“, targeting the Hoover Criminal Gang’s control of prostitution and trafficking along the Figueroa Corridor from February 2021 to June 2026.
  • The superseding indictment names 18 defendants and identifies 51 victims, many recruited from foster care, runaways, and girls in financial distress, then physically branded with their pimps’ monikers via tattoo.
  • Among the arrested: the manager of the Stadium Inn & Spas, who allegedly admitted 90% of his room rentals were commercial sex dates, and pocketed roughly half the proceeds.
  • Operation Broken Blade has now charged 25 defendants in 11 months, more trafficking charges than the U.S. Attorney’s office filed in the previous five years combined.
  • First Assistant U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli: “Sex trafficking of young women and children ranks among the worst criminal offenses our office prosecutes, truly the lowest of the low.”

Figueroa didn’t become an open-air trafficking market by accident. California repealed its loitering-for-prostitution law in 2022, LAPD enforcement collapsed, and the gangs did what gangs do: they filled the vacuum and monetized it. Note who’s cleaning it up: federal prosecutors, HSI, and the IRS. Not Sacramento. Not City Hall. The locals decriminalized the corridor, so the feds had to re-criminalize it.

What to Watch Next

  • Whether Sacramento revisits the loitering repeal as Figueroa becomes the national case study against it.
  • More indictments, prosecutors signal Broken Blade is ongoing, and other cities’ corridors fit the same pattern.

What This Means for Your Family & Community

This happened on a major American street, in daylight, for five years, not in some failed state. Every community that tolerates “minor” disorder is running the same experiment; the gangs are simply faster to the opportunity than the politicians are to the fix. Support DAs and sheriffs who enforce the law before the feds have to, and know that the difference between your neighborhood and Figueroa is enforcement.

-The Editors

Sourced from PRICKLY PEAR

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