By The Editors

Written by The Editors

Estimated Reading Time: 2 minutes

Taiwan’s own security services just logged the largest number of Chinese ships they have ever tracked, right as Beijing enters what officials call its annual window for testing new tactics. Here is what the buildup actually looks like, and why Taipei’s own defense checkbook still hasn’t kept pace with the danger it faces.

State of play: Taiwan’s National Security Bureau says it is tracking more than 110 Chinese military and coast guard ships moving up and down the First Island Chain, the highest count Taipei has documented.

The Facts

• A senior Taiwanese security official told parliament that July through September is the peak season for Chinese military drills, and this year’s exercises include joint drills with Russia.
• Taiwan already logged a record 3,570 Chinese military aircraft incursions into its surrounding airspace in 2025, so this summer’s naval buildup is layering on top of an already elevated baseline.

Follow the Money: Taiwan’s legislature passed a $25 billion special defense supplement on May 8, most of it earmarked for HIMARS rocket systems, Javelin anti-tank missiles, howitzers, and loitering munitions bought from the United States.

How did we get here? President Lai has pledged to hit 3 percent of GDP on defense this year and 5 percent by 2030, still well short of the 10 percent President Trump has publicly pushed Taipei toward, and well short of what deterrence probably requires.

Worth Watching: Taiwanese officials say the warning time before any potential attack is shortening, a line worth remembering the next time someone in Washington calls a Taiwan contingency a distant hypothetical.

One More Thing

• Most coverage treats this as a routine seasonal exercise story. It is happening in the same window U.S. carrier strength is stretched thin managing the Iran drawdown, and while Taiwan’s own legislature has spent much of the past year fighting itself over how much of the bill Taipei should actually pay.

Deterrence only works if the other side believes it, and readers who remember the Cold War know ambiguity has a price. It is fair to ask why an ally this exposed still hasn’t matched its rhetoric with its own checkbook, regardless of which party sits in the White House.

-The Editors

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