By The Editors

Written by The Editors

Estimated Reading Time: 2 minutes

A new Israeli poll finds that most Israelis no longer believe Benjamin Netanyahu will deliver the “total victory” in Gaza he has promised since October 2023. The finding matters because it measures the home front the war depends on, and that front is losing faith even as the fighting continues.

The math

• A majority has given up on the promise. In the Channel 12 survey, 62% said they do not believe Israel will achieve Netanyahu’s promised “total victory” in Gaza, against just 25% who think it will.
• The verdict on the war is the same. A matching 62% said Netanyahu has not “led Israel to victory after three years of war,” while 28% said he has.
• The poll (small) surveyed 503 respondents with a margin of error of 4%, conducted by Midgam.

Where things are

• The defense minister is underwater. 57% graded Defense Minister Israel Katz’s performance as “bad,” compared with 34% who called it “good.”
• His move on the military backfired. 47% said Katz’s attempt to oust the IDF Central Command chief was inappropriate, against 17% who said it was appropriate.
• The leadership is out of step with the public. On the war’s aim and on the men running it, the numbers point the same direction, which is rare in a country that usually splits closely on everything.

The fine print

• This is a measure of staying power, not just mood. Wars are sustained by public patience, and a better-than-two-to-one majority doubting the central war aim is a constraint on how long and how hard the campaign can continue.
• The doubt is about outcomes, not resolve. Israelis are not necessarily saying stop; they are saying they do not believe the promised end state is coming, which is a harder problem for a leader than simple opposition.

Key details

• Israeli sentiment is volatile. Opinion in a country at war moves with events, so a single result is a reading, not a trend.
• Watch whether the doubt hardens. If later polls echo the 62% figure, the political ground under the war shifts, and “total victory” becomes a slogan the public has already retired.
• Watch Katz. A defense minister at 57% “bad” after a failed move against his own command is a political liability, and his standing is the one most likely to force a change.

The battlefield question and the home-front question are drifting apart. The operations continue, but the public that has to bear them has quietly concluded the promised victory is not on the way. That gap, between what is promised and what is believed, is where the politics of this war will be settled.

-The Editors

National Security · Upstream of the Swamp · August 4, 2026

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