That is the big picture, the big takeaway so far from the war in Ukraine.

After fifteen months of war, Russia has failed in all of its war goals. It failed to topple the government of Ukraine. It failed to take Kiev. It failed to extend by much the territory it already held in the Donbas region. It failed to take Odessa. And the few cities the Russians did manage to take are today in ruins (witness: Mariopol and Bakhmut).

The Russians also failed diplomatically to deter NATO from coming to Ukraine’s aide.

If Putin was seeking to prevent NATO expansion to the East – as he has always said – then he failed big time, because NATO is now knocking on his doorstep all up and down the Finnish corridor in ways unthinkable just a few years ago.

If Putin was hoping to deter NATO from aiding Ukraine for fear of escalation – possibly, nuclear escalation – he also failed.

First, it was long-range HIMARS rockets. If you send them to Ukraine, we could go nuclear.

We sent them to Ukraine and Putin did not go nuclear.

Then it was Patriot missile batteries. If you send them to Ukraine, we could go nuclear.

We sent them to Ukraine and Putin did not go nuclear.

Then it was Leopard tanks, and artillery, and Armored Fighting Vehicles, and no Russian escalation. Today it is F-16s, and they are on the way.

NATO does not seem to fear Russian nuclear threats any more. That’s a pretty big strategic fail on Putin’s part.

But is Putin willing to take a deal? First, someone has got to offer him one. Biden and the chicken hawks in Congress (think: Lindsay Graham) have to offer him a deal. And they aren’t in the mood. They still talk of total victory for Ukraine. They still dream of fighting Russia to the blood of the last Ukrainian. It’s pretty despicable, actually.

I discuss this and French President Macron’s comic efforts to dance across the world stage, and increasing Chinese security paranoia, on this week’s Prophecy Today Weekend.

©2023. Kenneth R. Timmerman. All rights reserved.