This is big.

The United Arab Emirates has just announced that it’s leaving OPEC in order to boost production in order to support the Iran War. The UAE was a founding member of OPEC and it’s one of the largest oil producers.

OPEC nations have mixed positions on the Iran war. Qatar is Iran’s closest Gulf ally, but it had left back in 2019. The Saudis have been publicly critical of the war while privately supportive of it (the situation is further complicated by various factions within Saudi Arabia and MBS trying to have it all ways in every way at the same time) and they have agreed to boost oil production. Their agreement to do so was crucial to any U.S. intervention against Iran which is why they ultimately had the deciding vote on whether the Trump administration would hit Iran.

But the UAE appears to be going further after a deal with the Trump administration.

The United Arab Emirates stunned the already reeling global energy markets Tuesday by announcing it is quitting both OPEC and OPEC+, dealing a heavy blow to the oil exporters’ cartel and its de facto leader, Saudi Arabia—and doing so just days after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly backed an emergency dollar swap line for Abu Dhabi before the U.S. Senate.

Without the UAE and Qatar, and with shifts in Venezuela after Trump’s takedown of Maduro, OPEC looks weaker than ever.

AUTHOR

 Daniel Greenfield

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