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Operation Arctic Frost is a recently revealed FBI investigation (uncovered in documents released by the House Judiciary Committee in October 2025) into alleged 2020 election-related activities. The probe, led by Special Counsel Jack Smith, targeted over 160 Republican figures—including lawmakers, state officials, and GOP groups—for potential crimes tied to efforts to challenge or overturn the election results. Key details include:

• The FBI sought 197 subpoenas, monitored communications of at least eight Republican senators, and collected data on broader Republican networks.
• It was authorized by Attorney General Merrick Garland and FBI Director Chris Wray, and some documents allege it involved surveillance tactics that critics call “spying.”
• The investigation fed into Smith’s broader probe into 2020 election interference, though no significant charges against the targeted Republicans have resulted from it so far.

This operation has been dubbed “Biden’s Watergate” by critics, who argue it represents politicized abuse of federal power.

Moreover, it has implications for election integrity.  It is often said that Trump and his allies made unsupported accusations regarding the fairness of the 2020 election.  However, if attempting to get supporting material is considered a crime, how could one ever legitimately challenge an election?

Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) stated: “Based on the evidence to date, Arctic Frost and related weaponization by federal law enforcement under Biden was arguably worse than Watergate.” Similar rhetoric has come from Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Eric Schmitt (R-MO), who call for “Watergate-style hearings.”

Why is Arctic Frost worse than Watergate?  Basically, because rather than an isolated burglary of one Democrat office, it is a wholesale attack on the Republican Party and the conservative ecosphere generally. 

For the politically sensitive, this is far more sinister than mean tweets or even the Capitol Riot, commonly called January 6th.

Rather than an attempt to get dirt on the opposition party, Arctic Frost entails officials and law enforcement agencies being turned directly against domestic political opponents, their funding base, and their think tanks.

Over 400 Republican entities and individuals subpoenaed, including Trump’s campaign, the RNC, Save America PAC, America First Policy Institute, Conservative Partnership Institute, MyPillow (Mike Lindell’s company), and even Alex Jones/Infowars. This builds on earlier reports of 160+ Republicans, like 8-9 GOP senators (e.g., Ted Cruz, Mike Lee), whose communications were monitored.

Unlike Watergate, which was a rogue operation, this was a coordinated attack on conservative organizations and politicians involving over 197 subpoenas for bank records, donor lists, emails, and more; some warrantless surveillance. Rather than Cuban burglars, this monstrous operation was signed off on by AG Merrick Garland and FBI Director Chris Wray.

In Watergate, Nixon’s campaign broke into Democratic headquarters, subsequently attempted to cover it up with obstruction, perjury, and abuse of power (e.g., using the CIA and IRS against enemies). In the end, it led to 48 convictions, including top aides. Everybody, including Republicans, widely condemned it.

A small delegation of Republican congressional leaders visited President Nixon at the White House to deliver a stark reality check amid the Watergate scandal. Led by Sen. Barry Goldwater (R-AZ), the group included Senate Minority Leader Hugh Scott (R-PA) and House Minority Leader John Rhodes (R-AZ). They informed Nixon that, based on their private soundings, he could expect only about 10-15 votes in the Senate to acquit him if impeached and convicted—far short of the two-thirds majority needed to survive. Goldwater, a Nixon ally and the GOP’s 1964 presidential nominee, later described the meeting as one where he bluntly told the president, “There is no way you can avoid impeachment.” This bipartisan pressure (though the delegation was all-Republican, reflecting the GOP’s collapse in support) led to Nixon’s resignation, the first in presidential history.

So far, no Democrat has condemned President Biden’s illegal actions.  Nor are there any trials pending, or convictions obtained.

So, in a sense, Watergate was worse in that it led to the resignation of a President and 48 criminal convictions.

But the political crimes are arguably worse in that Arctic Frost was intended to kneecap the Conservative movement, which included a lot of private people, not political leaders.  Furthermore, we don’t know yet whether Congress and the Department of Justice will go after the Democrats who launched Arctic Frost.  So comparing Watergate to Arctic Frost is a little like comparing a nine-inning baseball game to one still in the bottom of the first inning.

We don’t know whether the upcoming investigations and prosecutions will rival Watergate in that regard.  But in terms of how broad the attack was, and that the operation was not a rogue operation at all, but carried out by the highest officials, it looks far worse as a political crime.

The “top-down” dynamic as a key differentiator—Watergate’s dirty tricks often get boiled down to the “Plumbers” (a rogue-ish White House squad of less than 20 operatives), but Nixon himself orchestrated much of it from the Oval Office, using his authority to loop in CIA, FBI, and IRS brass. That said, Arctic Frost’s chain of command feels more bureaucratically entrenched, greenlit by the entire executive law enforcement apparatus under Biden, which amplifies the institutional threat. It’s less a heist crew gone wild and more like the entirety of state machinery was deliberately set loose on one’s political opponents.

This is chilling for the political process.  Who would want to get involved in politics, or even get involved in policy arguments, if you feel that, routinely, the entire law enforcement and intelligence agencies of the government will be turned against you?  In short, Biden treated domestic political opposition as if he were facing the power of a hostile foreign state.

This takes political party fighting to a dangerous level, one deadly to the functioning of a representative republic.  Cynically, this was all done under the Orwellian goal to “save democracy.”

In terms of precedent, Arctic Frost is thus much more dangerous.  It is one thing for political parties to compete for voters’ attention.  It is quite another thing for one party to seize the police machinery of government, a government that also belongs to Republicans and Independents, to destroy the other political party and supporting private infrastructure.