Why the Saudis now say Trump should strike Iran, but won’t let him use their airspace
By Jihad Watch
The Saudis initially cautioned President Donald Trump not to strike the Islamic Republic of Iran, and he seems to have complied, but now they’re saying that if he doesn’t strike, the Islamic regime in Tehran will be emboldened. That is certainly correct; in fact, as we have documented here more than once, the Islamic regime in Tehran is already emboldened by the perception that Trump issued an empty threat and backed down out of weakness. But why did the Saudis change their position?
They’re balancing several considerations. One is that backing the U.S. against a Muslim country, even a Shi’ite one, will not play well among many Muslims, and could conceivably even cause the monarchy trouble within Saudi Arabia. However, the Islamic Republic of Iran is indeed a Shi’ite regime, and there have been tensions between Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran since the latter’s inception. It appears, at least at this point, that the Saudis have calculated that the cost of leaving the Shi’ite regime in place and allowing Trump and the U.S. to appear weak and indecisive on the world stage is higher than the cost of supporting an attack on another Muslim state. But they’re still hedging; hence their refusal to allow the U.S. to use their airspace for an attack.
“Scoop: Saudi defense minister says Trump not bombing Iran would embolden regime,” by Barak Ravid and Zachary Basu, Axios, January 31, 2026:
Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman (KBS) said in a private briefing on Friday in Washington that if President Trump doesn’t follow through on his threats against Iran, the regime will end up stronger, four sources in the room tell Axios.
Why it matters: This is a reversal from the public Saudi talking points cautioning against escalation and from the deep concern Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) expressed to Trump three weeks ago. That warning was one reason Trump decided to delay a strike….
“Saudis won’t let the US use its bases or airspace for an attack on Iran, senior Gulf official reveals,” by Peter Pinedo and Jacqui Heinrich, Fox News, January 30, 2026:
As President Donald Trump weighs his options on a possible military strike on Iran, a senior Gulf official told Fox News Saudi Arabia will not allow the U.S. to use its airspace or bases for such an attack.
A high-ranking government figure from a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) state told Fox News that the “U.S. hasn’t shared objectives or plans” regarding Iran with Gulf allies despite recent high-level Saudi meetings in Washington aimed at gaining clarity.
“We said this as friends, [we] want to make sure they understand our position and our assessment in general. And we want to understand the U.S. assessment with as much clarity as possible,” the senior official said. “I’d like to get full clarity, and we did not get there.”
Regarding U.S. military movements for a strike on Iran, the official said, “The plan is something other than using Saudi airspace.”…
AUTHOR
Robert Spencer
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