You called this “the last hurrah of the RINO establishment,” and you noted Bill Cassidy lost his primary on May 16, with Cornyn, Tillis, and McConnell also on the way out. Is the party actually moving past that wing, or are those senators using 2026 to set up a fight for control in 2028?

The Republican Party’s shift toward its populist, MAGA wing has drastically accelerated during the 2026 midterm cycle, rendering the idea of a pre-planned establishment “fight for control in 2028” highly Likely.

Instead of staging a tactical retreat, the traditional establishment wing is effectively being dismantled through a combination of primary defeats and forced retirements driven by an insistence on near-total party loyalty.

The Current Reality of the “RINO Exit”

The political landscape for these four specific senators shows a wing of the party in complete transition rather than one preparing a counter-offensive:

• Bill Cassidy (LA): After facing severe backlash for his 2021 vote to convict Donald Trump, Bill Cassidy finished a distant third in Louisiana’s closed primary on May 16, 2026. He was eliminated entirely from the race, while Trump-endorsed Representative Julia Letlow advanced and won the nomination.
• John Cornyn (TX): Similar to Cassidy, John Cornyn was defeated in his Republican primary after facing an aggressive opposition campaign from Trump and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
• Mitch McConnell (KY): The longest-serving Senate party leader in history chose not to seek re-election in 2026, completely stepping aside to end his 40-year career. His leadership post had already been handed over to Senator John Thune.
• Thom Tillis (NC): Citing a difficult political climate for bipartisan compromise, Thom Tillis officially announced his retirement and did not seek re-election. He warned that the party’s current demand for strict loyalty oaths is “unrealistic” and “unsustainable.”

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