Thanks to all the supervisors of elections for the prompt issuing of January registrations numbers. The numbers were available to have this report completed by February 3rd. The delay in the issuance of the report was caused by repeated attempts to convey the urgency in the need for Republicans to adopt new strategies to grow the Republican share of the vote.

This registrations report is for voter registrations through the end of January 2023. Florida Republicans continue the trend of making gains as Republican registrations relative to Democrat registrations increased by 22,881 registrations in January and by 95,567 registrations since the book closing for the 2022 general election. Florida Republicans now have a 401,517 relative registrations advantage over the Democrats. Republican registrations were 36.55% of total registrations and Republicans now enjoy a 2.76% of total registrations advantage over the Democrats ( the tables below).

The Democrats continue the Biden era phenomena of losing significant numbers of registrations as Democrats lost 33,330 Registrations in January and over 60,000 registrations since the 2022 book closing. The registrations of Republicans fell slightly (7,449 registrations), and the number of registrations which are neither Republican nor Democrat increased slightly (6,852 registrations), in January (see attached chart). Republicans are generally failing to capture the registrations of those voters formally registered as Democrats.

Reasons for Republicans to Adopt Better Strategies

Republican peak market share was in 1984 as Ronald Reagan won the election by a roughly 16-million vote margin.

The roughly seven-million vote Republican deficit in the 2020 presidential election represents an average annual margin loss of a little over 600,000 votes since 1984. This average annual loss equates to a roughly 2.5 million average vote margin loss in the Republican share of the vote for each presidential election cycle.

An example of this on-going loss of Republican margin is the over four-million margin increase gained by the Democrats between the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.
Had President Trump performed to trend in 2016, he would have lost the 2016 election Electoral College vote by roughly 347 to 191.

President Trump won the 2016 Electoral College vote 304 to 227.

The 2020 election saw the Republican vote margin move back toward the long-term trend and the result was a Republican Electoral College loss of 306 to 232.
The annual Republican losses of margin are by nature additive and relentless.

The poor underlying Republican vote margin trend is part of the reason why the incompetence of the Democrats leading up to the 2022 General Election did not result in an expected widespread Republican gain in national offices.

The Republican gains made in Florida in the 2022 General Election has made Florida the national leader in Republican politics. It is imperative that Florida Republicans reach out to Republicans in other states as Florida obviously needs Republicans in other states to have greater success if we are to reestablish being a constitutional republic.

Understanding and Countering Democrat Strategies.

The Democrat strategy is to grow the numbers in those changeable demographic groups that tend to vote Democrat and shrink the numbers in those changeable demographics that tend to vote Republican. The changeable demographic group that are most likely to vote Democrats are relatively poor singles living in rental housing. To counter this, Republicans need to have policies implemented which favor wide-spread wealth creation and homeownership, and policies which favor family formation, and which allow these families to flourish.

The Democrats’ and their allies’ strategies to gain a greater percentage of the vote is to simply wait for Republicans to die and to force most of those reaching voting age to delay, or to completely stymie, these voters from forming families and becoming homeowners.

2022 Election Analysis of the Congressional Vote

Most analysis of presidential elections are based on statewide data. Better analysis is available by examining congressional districts as the process of creating congressional districts pre-sorts the electorate of the state. Data for congressional districts are readily available from the Census Bureau (My Congressional Districts).

North Carolina’s 14 congressional races were examined for this report. North Carolina was chosen owing to North Carolina being a highly competitive state with both major parties winning seven of the state’s 14 congressional districts. The districts carried by the Republican congressional nominees were won by an average margin of 69,660 votes and the winning Democrat nominees carried their districts by an average margin of 46,410 votes.

The average rental rate (the number of occupied rental units divided by the total number of occupied housing units) was 24.1% greater (36.62% rental rate in Democrat districts vs 29.51% rental rate in Republican districts) and the average median home price was 31.4% higher ($274,986) in those congressional districts represented by Democrats versus those districts represented by Republicans ($209,329).

The creation of a rental unit, based on an examination of Florida data, results in Democrats gaining a 2.8-vote margin. The creation of an owner-occupied housing unit results in Republicans gaining a .7-vote margin. The Democrats have utilized this fact to grow the Democrat vote by forcing much of the population into rental housing on a permanent basis. Republicans have generally done nothing to stop this, and Republican politicians often aid the Democrats in their efforts to force people to delay homeownership, or to force voters into a lifetime of renter ship.

It is imperative that Republican politicians inform Democrat voters that the Democrats wish for those voters who are relatively poor, single, and living in rental housing to stay that way. Once elected, Republicans need to implement policies which create more widespread wealth, affordable home ownership, and family formation.

There needs to be an effort by a large contingent of Republicans to become informed, to inform others, to actively participate in helping others to own property, to champion family formation and to help families prosper. The effort is all about information and participation!

If Republicans wish to remain viable, they also need to actively rid themselves of those Republican politicians who help the Democrats keep voters relatively poor, single, and forced to delay homeownership and family formation, or forced into life-long renter ship!

©Stephen R. Meyer. All rights reserved.