West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin has just done something almost unheard of for a professional politician. He publicly announced that he would not vote for Joe Biden’s BBB reconciliation plan because it has been presented dishonestly to the public.

The Biden-Pelosi bill says that the cost will be less than $2 trillion and be completely funded by a number of proposed taxes that seem to change every day or so. Manchin revealed a non-partisan analysis done at the respected Wharton School, showing the annual cost of each program in the bill and the annual revenues the Government will likely realize from the money-raising parts of the bill.

It is all summarized succinctly on a single page. The Wharton figures show costs will be nearly double what the Democrats allege, and that less than $2 trillion in additional revenue will be raised, leaving an immense hole that will have to be closed by borrowing more money and raising the already unsustainable level of National Debt.

The incredible difference between the Administration’s claims and those of the Wharton analysis is easy to explain. The key is to understand how the Government calculates “cost”. When a bill is proposed that has financial ramifications, those proposing it must demonstrate what the costs will be over the next 10 years, assuming the bill becomes law exactly as presented. It must also demonstrate how those costs will be met. As with all projections, the assumptions you make will determine the outcome.

On the revenue side, the Government always assumes that taxpayers will pay whatever the politicians plan for them to pay, ignoring evasive actions, in aid of which an army of accountants and tax lawyers stand ready to advise their clients.

But on the cost side , the key is in the words, “assuming the bill becomes law exactly as presented”. The Democrats have written the bill on the basis of the assumption that their vast new giveaway programs will only be temporary. Consequently, they assume these programs will expire in a few years, meaning that they can illustrate costs assuming zero outlays after the programs “expire”. Of course, they can reasonably expect that any future Republican Government will find it impossible to repeal popular welfare programs and that the actual costs will far exceed the illustrations. This, of course, is dishonest, and it must be noted that the Republicans are not above using such chicanery when they are in power. Nevertheless, any businessman who used such methods to present a proposal in the private sector would be laughed out of the board room and summarily sent packing.

In the public sector, no one of either party is ever held accountable when programs balloon well beyond what was projected. What makes it so serious this time is that the magnitude of the dollars involved staggers belief. No one can conceive of a trillion dollars. $4 trillion is $4,000,000,000,000. Laid end to end, it could form a belt around the world several times.

Thank you, Senator Manchin, for exposing this fraud. To steal from the football parody, “Go Joe Manchin! Stop Joe Biden!”

*****