DeSantis Delivers in Huge Win for the Anti-Lockdown Cause thumbnail

DeSantis Delivers in Huge Win for the Anti-Lockdown Cause

By Michael Senger

A huge re-election victory vindicates his pandemic policies,” writes the Wall Street Journal. “With runaway win, DeSantis’s political career becomes supercharged,” writes the New York Times. “Ron DeSantis is the new Republican Party leader,” declares Fox News. “Florida’s governor turned his coronavirus policies into a parable of American freedom,” observes the Atlantic.

As well they should. The self-perpetuating lockdowns, mandates, and state of emergency that were imposed across much of the world in response to Covid-19 were a totalitarian aberration incompatible with the values of constitutional democracy. Resisting those mandates wasn’t just a parable of American freedom—it was American freedom.

Unlike some leaders such as South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem, DeSantis didn’t initially see through the lockdowns. But he was one of the few political leaders to quickly and publicly recognize his errorvowing that Florida “will never do any of these lockdowns again.”

Where DeSantis really stands out, however, is in his wholehearted embrace, from that point forward, of the anti-lockdown movement in its entirety. He’s consulted and hosted roundtable discussions with prominent anti-lockdown activists and scientists including Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, Dr. Martin Kulldorff, and Dr. Sunetra Gupta, and appointed Dr. Joseph Ladapo, a strong opponent of Covid mandates, as his Surgeon General.

DeSantis and his team became active within the anti-lockdown movement on social media, and he frequently voiced strong opposition to Covid mandates in his speeches, such as during his State of the State address:


Florida has become the escape hatch for those chafing under authoritarian, arbitrary and seemingly never-ending mandates and restrictions. Even today, across the nation we see students denied an education due to reckless, politically-motivated school closures, workers denied employment due to heavy-handed mandates and Americans denied freedoms due to a coercive biomedical apparatus.

These unprecedented policies have been as ineffective as they have been destructive. They are grounded more in blind adherence to Faucian declarations than they are in the constitutional traditions that are the foundation of free nations.

Florida is a free state. We reject the biomedical security state that curtails liberty, ruins livelihoods and divides society. And we will protect the rights of individuals to live their lives free from the yoke of restrictions and mandates.

DeSantis’s staunch support for the anti-lockdown cause may be explained, in no small part, by the fact that he remains one of the world’s only major political figures to publicly share his belief that the Chinese Communist Party played a key role in influencing the global response to Covid-19:

The (W)est did a lot of damage to itself by adopting some of these policies, which have proven to not work to stop the spread, but to be very economically destructive. I do think there was an information operation angle to this, where they really believed that if they could get these other countries to lock down, and they were willing to do some propaganda along the way, particularly in Europe, that ultimately would help China. And I think it has helped China.

For this, DeSantis effectively became the face of the anti-lockdown movement in the United States. It was a bold political gamble (or, for those who’ve been fighting this fight since early 2020, just plain old common sense), and it drew the consternation of lockdown supporters, media and political elites across the country.

But it paid off big. DeSantis won the race for reelection with a 19-point margin of victory—the widest victory margin in a Florida gubernatorial election since 2002. Even more telling, DeSantis’s odds to win the 2024 presidential election soared by more than 10 percentage points, making him the new frontrunner in the presidential race.

The outsized significance of DeSantis’s victory isn’t so much in the victory itself, which was predicted, or even the margin of that victory. The real significance is that DeSantis outperformed by a wide margin at the same time the Republican Party underperformed across the rest of the country. This unique outperformance vindicates whatever DeSantis did differently than the rest of the GOP. And without a doubt, what DeSantis is best known for is his wholehearted embrace of the anti-lockdown movement.

*****

This article was published by Brownstone Institute and is reproduced with permission.

Home Sales Plunge, Investors Pull Back Too, Prices Drop 8.4% in 4 Months thumbnail

Home Sales Plunge, Investors Pull Back Too, Prices Drop 8.4% in 4 Months

By Wolf Richter

Sellers are struggling with denial: Priced “right,” a home will sell, but “right” is where the buyers are, and they’re a lot lower.

Sales of all types of previously owned homes – houses, condos, and co-ops – fell by 5.9% in October from September, the ninth month in a row of declines, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales of 4.43 million homes, just a hair above the lockdown-month of April 2020, according to the National Association of Realtors. Compared to the recent free-money peak in October 2020, sales were down 34%.

Year-over-year, sales fell by 28%, the 15th month in a row of year-over-year declines. Beyond April and May 2020, this was the lowest rate of sales since December 2011 (historic data via YCharts):

Sales of single-family houses plunged by 6.4% in October from September, and by 28% year-over-year, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.95 million houses.

Sales of condos and co-ops fell by 2.0% in October from September, and by 30% year-over-year, to 480,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Investors or second-home buyers purchased 16% of the homes in October, down from the 17%-22% range in the spring and winter. In other words, their purchases plunged at an even higher rate than the purchases of regular buyers, as investors too are losing interest in buying at these prices.

This plunge in sales is a sign that potential sellers and buyers are in a standoff. Many potential sellers refuse to accept reality and lower their prices to where the sellers are; instead, they’re thinking, “and this too shall pass,” and they’re hoping or praying for a Fed pivot or for a miracle or whatever and don’t even put their home on the market, or pull it off the market after not getting any traffic at their aspirational asking price. And buyers have lost interest at the current prices.

Homes that are priced right – meaning priced down where the buyers are – are selling. But sellers don’t like to go there. And we see that in the active listings too. But there is some price-cutting going on, as more sellers figure this out.

Price reductions: In October, the number of homes listed with price reductions rose to 327,184 homes, the highest since October 2019, and just a tad below it (data via realtor.com).

*****

Continue reading this article at Wolf Street.

Lake Issues 1st Major Update in Arizona Since Hobbs Declared Victory thumbnail

Lake Issues 1st Major Update in Arizona Since Hobbs Declared Victory

By Zachary Stieber

Arizona Republican candidate Kari Lake said on Nov. 17 that she’s still fighting in the state governor’s race, in her first major update since Democrat Katie Hobbs declared victory.

“I wanted to reach out to you to let you know that I am still in this fight with you,” Lake, a former television anchor, said in a video statement.

Lake said concerns raised by her campaign about Hobbs, the Arizona secretary of state, overseeing the election and electronic voting equipment turned out to be legitimate. As an example, she pointed to how tabulators across Maricopa County weren’t working properly on Election Day.

Lake said that she spoke with voters who had to wait in line for hours, including a man who went to three different polling sites before he was able to finally cast his ballot.

“Our election officials failed us miserably. What happened to Arizonans on Election Day is unforgivable. Tens of thousands of Maricopa County voters were disenfranchised,” Lake said. As secretary of state, Hobbs is the state’s top election official.

“Now I’m busy here collecting evidence and data. Rest assured I have assembled the best and brightest legal team. And we are exploring every avenue to correct the many wrongs that have been done this past week. I’m doing everything in my power to right these wrongs. My resolve to fight for you is higher than ever.”…..

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Continue reading at The Epoch Times.

It Apparently Wasn’t the Economy, Stupid! thumbnail

It Apparently Wasn’t the Economy, Stupid!

By Neland Nobel

Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard. H. L. Mencken

The recent results of the mid-term elections have a number of pundits puzzled, including ourselves.

It was felt that the economy would be dominant. Inflation is at the worst levels in 40 years, falling markets are chewing up savings and folks’ 401K plans, there are no eggs at Costco, rents are soaring, and only about 21 days of diesel fuel is left in the country.

Crime is out of control in major cities, and the border is wide open for anyone, terrorist or bricklayer, to come into the country.

The Federal Budget is completely out of whack.

Surely, people are feeling this. It is evident at the meat counter, at the gas pump, and on the electricity bill.  There is no way the media can hide this reality from the American people. These are the conditions for a Red Wave. Or, at least, that is what was thought.

We think the American people are feeling the pain, despite the best effort of the press to hide the problems. But, it seems voters think Russia is the cause and not the Democrats and they were more concerned about abortion and “election denial” and the “taint of Trump” than they were about kitchen table issues thought to be more important.

So, it seems the economy is not the most important issue for voters. What else can one reasonably conclude?

But it is also true, few people, including leading Republicans, understand the budget crisis. If they do, they are so terrified to talk about it because Democrats will portray them as “pushing grandma off a cliff”, if they even bring up the subject in a campaign. We urge you to watch the video by Congressman David Schweikert.

Independents apparently broke heavily for Democrats late in the game. Usually, they are independent for a reason and break late for the challenger. It didn’t happen. Younger, unmarried women also voted heavily for Democrats.

Republicans consistently polled that they are more trusted on the economy. But since the economy did not seem to matter that edge was lost. Did the Republicans blow it because they too got bogged down in peripheral issues? It appears they did.  

Independents voted against Republicans because of the “taint of Trump”, so says the Wall Street Journal in a perceptive analysis of Arizona results. Republicans took Congressional seats 6-3 and took the legislature. But many identified with Trump lost narrowly. Those like Kimberly Lee, not identified with Trump, won handily.

If the Wall Street Journal is correct, that sort of makes our point. The public was turned off on Republicans despite the weak, inflationary-wracked economy. The economy was not paramount after all.

The result is that while the Republicans barely took the House, they won’t be able to do much but hold off additional bad decisions on the economy, and they certainly will not be able to mount a counterattack to reverse many bad decisions by the Democrats. Meanwhile, Biden will be free to use his executive power to wreak havoc. The courts may eventually correct some of that, but it takes too much time to occur to help a declining economy.

We think of the ever-ebullient Larry Kudlow, who advised us that Republicans would do well, and that “the calvary was coming”, to make the economy better.

But the cavalry got mauled badly just as they did at the Fetterman Massacre in 1866. Similarly, Republicans got massacred in Pennsylvania by a truly radical Democrat of the same name, who can barely speak a complete sentence. He will likely destroy the once vibrant energy sector that has employed so many Pennsylvanians. But then again, rural Pennsylvania went all Republican and the rich environmentalists around Philadelphia and the black vote carried the day.

You can’t say in this race, the Republicans ran a poor candidate, certainly compared to the Democrats. One was a brilliant doctor, and the other was brain-damaged. Say what you will about the Democrat Party, it was a stroke of genius to run Fetterman. He was just what the people wanted.

That leads to our concluding thoughts. If indeed people were not concerned enough about the economy, but other things, they are likely to get it “good and hard” as the sage of Baltimore suggested. This is as it should be. Unfortunately, all of us will pay for the mistake.

The reason goes back to Kudlow’s observation, but with a negative twist. The cavalry is not coming and the likelihood now of a serious recession looms.

To be sure, many of the about-to-be-mentioned factors were present before, and they would be difficult to deal with in any case, but now, there is really no chance of reversing the impact of bad Democrat policies. 

And, we would add, the economy has its own complex cycle, independent of politics. But the distortions of the Biden Administration (gunning the money supply 40%), chocking off energy production, and blowing out the deficit, touched off an inflationary burst that the Federal Reserve has to address. We have long felt an economy that had become addicted to cheap money would suffer withdrawal symptoms when the cheap money is withdrawn.

Here are some of the negative factors we currently see:

The increase in interest rates needed to fight inflation causes an immense increase in borrowing costs for our bloated government debt.

Borrowing costs will soon be the blob that eats whatever is left in the 16% of the budget that is “discretionary”, that is the part our leaders actually vote on.

The yield curve is inverted, that is short-term interest rates are higher than long-term rates. This has been a reliable indicator of recession, regardless of politics.

Corporate earnings are now in a downtrend with 75% of the S&P companies announcing downgrades.

Inflation may have come off its peak, but the FED wisely has said one or two data points do not make a trend and that they will keep raising rates, which they should. The old maxim is the FED will keep raising “until something breaks.” We wonder if the crypto disasters we keep seeing are not the leading edge of a liquidity crisis in an over-leveraged economy.

It will be no fun when something big does indeed break. It will be scary.

The rate of change of the money supply is falling fast, and the velocity of money is contracting.

The combination of rising mortgage rates and the housing bubble is making home affordability a serious problem for future demand. According to Charlie Bilello, it now takes $107,000 in income to afford a median-priced home, which is up a whopping 45% in just the past 12 months. The American dream is getting crushed.

The Leading Economic Indicators have now been down for eight months in a row, more than long enough to establish a trend.

According to David Rosenberg, the consumer sentiment number kept by the University of Michigan averages 71 during recessions and hovers around 88 during expansions. The latest number is around 55, the lowest in about 70 years. The consumer is in trouble and consumer spending is 70% of the economy.

While anecdotal data, the fact that Amazon and FedEx are both laying people off, during the time of the year they normally hire temps because of Christmas shopping, suggests shipping demand is way off. If you are making stuff or buying stuff, it has to be shipped. If stuff is not being shipped it is for a good reason…the economy is contracting fast.

The same can be said for container prices which are falling sharply. This indicates a sharp slowdown in international trade.

Home prices have started to decline and homes are the main source of wealth for most of the population. They are highly leveraged contracts as we found out in the last housing crisis. People can walk away from their commitments in most states, sticking taxpayers with the bill.

Existing home sales have been down for nine months, off 28% from last year.

Federal debt has ballooned so much that interest payments will soon be equal to defense expenditures. When you have to borrow money to pay for interest and essentials, you are in real trouble. However, negative trends compound in a welfare state economy. Demands for more spending will soon be heard, while revenue to the government will decline. Deficits will go up even more. The deficit crisis, long ignored, will reach the critical stage.

However marginal the Republican win in the House, fiscal policy will be less stimulative and the Fed will keep monetary policy tight until the inflation fever breaks. The era of easy and cheap money is likely over, for at least a while.

A number of nations centered around the BRICS economy (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) are toying with a new payment system that will not use US dollars. Without that demand, the dollar will have to be valued on its fundamentals, and those fundamentals are not that great.

The Green New Deal and ESG have starved capital investment in energy. New alternatives are not comparable and are being brought on too slowly. An energy crisis is likely to unfold in the next few years.

After throwing $80 billion at the Ukraine war, Biden is asking for another $37 billion. How much, how long, and to what end?

We could go on with another ten or so factoids, but hopefully, the point has been made. We are now more likely to have a serious recession and no political relief is likely.

Perhaps the silver lining in all of this is that as the economy gets worse, especially if unemployment starts to rise to a painful level, it successfully focuses the minds of voters. If this happens as is likely, in 2023 and 2024, peripheral issues will take second or third, or tenth place behind the economy.

If we are not in one already, a recession is likely sometime next year. If forced to guess, we would say by next spring.

If things turn as bad as we think they will, Democrats will not be able to dodge responsibility during the next election cycle.

History shows when the economy turns sour, those in power have to take the blame.

The dictum that it is “the economy stupid” will take center stage once again. But to get there, the American people will have to have their attention focused by getting a recession good and hard.

That is nothing we wish for, or voted for because it necessarily involves all of us regardless of party. But, voting has consequences.

Sam Bankman-Fried Is Not Alone: Some of History’s Greatest Monsters Were Democratic Megadonors thumbnail

Sam Bankman-Fried Is Not Alone: Some of History’s Greatest Monsters Were Democratic Megadonors

By Andrew Stiles

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Estimated Reading Time: < 1 minute

“If I have seen further it is by standing on the shoulders of giants.” — Sir Isaac Newton

What happened: Sam Bankman-Fried, the digital guru who earlier this year pledged to spend as much as $1 billion in support of Democratic candidates, is under federal investigation after the cryptocurrency exchange he founded declared bankruptcy amid accusations of fraud and financial mismanagement.

Why it matters: Bankman-Fried is the latest in a long line of Democratic megadonors to be accused of egregious criminal acts.

By the numbers:

  • $5,700,000 — The amount Bankman-Fried, aka “SBF” or “the next Warren Buffet,” donated to President Joe Biden’s campaign and other Democratic-aligned entities in 2020.
  • $40,000,000 — The amount SBF donated to political candidates and committees during the 2022 election cycle, the vast majority of which were aligned with the Democratic Party.
  • $15,600,000,000 — Bankman-Fried’s estimated net worth on Nov. 8, 2022.
  • $0 — His estimated net worth on Nov. 11, 2022…..

*****

Continue reading this article at The Washington Free Beacon.


630 1200 Andrew Stiles 2022-11-20 06:20:37Sam Bankman-Fried Is Not Alone: Some of History’s Greatest Monsters Were Democratic Megadonors

The Dangers of Woke Law thumbnail

The Dangers of Woke Law

By John O. McGinnis

Paul Clement, the best Supreme Court advocate of his generation, won an epochal Second Amendment victory for his clients this past summer. The august law firm of Kirkland & Ellis, where he was a partner, rewarded him by offering the choice of dropping his clients or leaving the firm. And he left. His representation of an individual’s right to bear arms had likely offended the sensibilities of many of his partners and associates because they did not like this kind of liberty.

This defenestration is the analogue in the law firm world to what is happening at many elite college campuses: a pall of orthodoxy has descended that brooks little or no dissent. And just as orthodoxy on campus undermines the epistemically open function that universities perform in liberal societies, so do actions like that of Kirkland & Ellis undermine the function lawyers must perform to support the liberal order.

The notion that ours is a “government not of men, but of laws” is central to the classically liberal theory of politics. A government of men controls by discretion but a government of laws controls by rules which are transparent to the public and allow citizens to plan. But laws are often not entirely clear, so men and women legitimately dispute over their content. Thus, a central purpose of the legal system is to clarify the content of these rules through adversarial presentations that result in authoritative decisions by neutral tribunals.

This function of law has implications for the responsibilities of lawyers. In representing clients, they provide a service to society as a whole by making arguments that result in the clarification and application of the rules that govern us. Thus, even if they are representing someone open to moral criticism, like an alleged criminal or tortfeasor, they help the world by clarifying the law.

It is not a fair criticism, therefore, to complain about lawyers’ representation so long as they make arguments within the bounds of the law. Indeed, they may even disagree with the actions they defend. John Adams, an undoubted American patriot, famously defended British soldiers accused in the Boston Massacre. Nor should a lawyer abandon a client once representation is undertaken, as Kirkland tried to force Clement to do, because the client or the cause he espouses has become unpopular.

The Servant of the Damned by David Enrich is premised on a new illiberal order of law, where law firms should eschew bad corporations (“the damned”), even if these clients have plausible or even winning arguments on the merits. The book is a sustained attack on one law firm, Jones Day, but its broader message comports with what may be called “woke law.” Only those deemed virtuous enough or those with causes deemed virtuous by people like Enrich deserve excellent representation, except for alleged criminals, who must continue to have a constitutional right to counsel. And not surprisingly, the law firm attacked is one that has a critical mass of conservative lawyers (although, like almost all of its peers, most of its lawyers’ political contributions go to Democrats). Enrich’s normative thesis is linked to a more descriptive one: that law firms once operated with more virtue but now have become greedy mercenaries, ready to represent anyone with enough cash. Jones Day also exemplifies this transformation as it grew from a Cleveland firm to a global powerhouse.

Enrich is an indefatigable reporter of fact, and the one benefit of his book is that he provides enough facts to undermine both his normative and descriptive thesis if the proper context is added. For instance, while he condemns Jones Day for representing various modern corporations, like tobacco companies and polluters, he celebrates the older version of the firm for representing a steel company that in the 1950s defied President Truman’s order to seize its mills. What he leaves out is that this executive order was issued to end a labor dispute on terms favorable to labor unions and was necessary, according to Truman, to win the war in Korea. Under the standards that encourage lawyers to determine the virtue of their clients’ underlying cause, that representation could have easily been dismissed as advancing the interests of a greedy, unpatriotic company at the expense both of workers and the national war effort. With the hindsight of history, that perspective is wrong, because whatever one thought of the company and Truman’s policy, the Jones Day lawyers advanced a plausible separation of powers argument about the appropriately circumscribed role of the executive. The result of their efforts was the landmark decision in Youngstown Sheet and Tube Co. v. Sawyer, which held that the President can regulate our property only with authorization from Congress.

When in more recent times, lawyers at Jones Days represent tobacco companies pursuing claims that their advertising is protected as commercial speech, they are advancing our legal system no less than their predecessors. Their clients might be impugned, but their arguments help define the contours of an important First Amendment doctrine. Even when these lawyers show that the illness of a sympathetic plaintiff was caused not by smoking but by other poor health habits, lawyers are serving the legal system by forcing proof of causation—one of the key elements in a typical tort suit. Perhaps the Constitution should be amended or tort law revised, but in a government of laws, those rules must govern until changed according to the rules of the system.

Law firms became bigger because government became bigger, creating, ex ante, a need for more lawyers to comply with regulation and, ex post, a need for more lawyers to address the litigation generated by regulation.

Enrich does note that in two cases Jones Day lawyers were accused of ethical breaches which went beyond zealous representation of their clients. And here I have much sympathy with his concern as an abstract matter: both the judiciary and bar need to do a better job at enforcing ethical rules on attorneys, regardless of whom they represent. (For instance, the state auditor of California recently showed that the state bar failed to discipline even lawyers who repeatedly violated the rules of professional responsibility.) But Enrich overreaches in his certainty that the allegations against Jones Day lawyers show that it is a particularly bad firm. Indeed, there was never a final determination that any ethical breach occurred. In one case, the firm settled on terms that even Enrich recognizes were not unfavorable to Jones Day. Lawyers of all people recognize that settling litigation even when your side is right can be wise, because litigation is costly and uncertain. And in the other case, the appellate court reversed the sanction of the district court. Enrich says that the reversal was on a technicality, but the “technicality” went to the lower court’s failure to give the lawyer proper notice about the sanction. Again, Enrich has trouble recognizing that such enforcement of technicalities is one way that courts protect our liberties.

His descriptive thesis about why Jones Day and other firms have become businesses-like behemoths without as much regard for professional norms is not strong either. He credits Steven Brill’s claim that the publication of law firm revenues and profits in his magazine, The American Lawyer, was the reason that firms focused on the bottom line and began to poach the stars at other firms.

But legal journalism was the result rather than the cause of the forces making law firms bigger, more competitive, and thus of more public interest. They became bigger because government became bigger, creating, ex ante, a need for more lawyers to comply with regulation and, ex post, a need for more lawyers to address the litigation generated by regulation. While Enrich seems to deplore the fact the law firms started to add lobbying to their arsenal of weapons, he quotes John McCain as denouncing of one Jones Day’s clients: “Such companies must be judged guilty until proven innocent.” With legislators like that, is it any wonder law firms felt the need to expand into lobbying to advance their core role of protecting their clients’ liberty and property from governmental overreach?

Law also became more competitive. To be fair, Enrich does note that the Supreme Court permitted legal advertising, but he does not make enough of the importance of that decision in leading to competition: a firm poaches famous lawyers in part because they advertise the power of the firm. And even more important than advertising has been the rise of powerful general counsel at corporations—again driven by the increased importance of regulation—who monitor and pit law firms against one another for the best delivery of legal services. Thus, as lawyers have become more important actors in a highly regulated society, the best naturally command ever higher compensation and competitive demand for their talents, and law firms need ever larger armies of foot soldiers to support them. There is no need to resort to explanations rooted in greed or innovative legal publications.

The objectivity in Enrich’s book is also marred by his patently left-wing politics. The damned are always corporations rather than regulators, even if regulators can themselves decrease economic growth and competition, harming millions of people. Moreover, one of the bases of his indictment of Jones Day is that more of their attorneys went to work for Donald Trump than from any other law firm. Enrich clearly dislikes Trump and his policies, but he never shows that the Jones Day lawyers acted unethically in their work for him as President. Some became judges as a result, but rewarding good lawyers in this way is something that happens in every administration. Some Jones Day lawyers became disgruntled with the firm’s representation of Trump, but given the intense feelings Trump elicited, that is not a surprise either.

Enrich’s disdain for the conservative side of the political spectrum manifests itself in some obvious mistakes. He says, for instance, that as a law professor, Antonin Scalia “helped establish the Federalist Society to put conservatives on the federal bench.” The Federalist Society was actually established by a handful of students in the early 1980s to inject some greater debate at monolithically left-wing law schools. The idea that a student organization even with the help of a law professor could influence the selection of federal judges would have been regarded as risible at the time. As the Federalist Society grew in the following decades to become a network of lawyers as well students, some of those lawyers themselves became influential in judicial selection, although the Society took no position on judges or on any other legal issue, unlike other legal organizations such as the ABA.

There is a widespread debate about whether we have hit “peak wokeism.” Whatever the answer in the wider world, Kirkland’s parting with Clement and the publication of Enrich’s book both suggest that the answer in the legal profession is no. And when lawyers are canceled for representing clients with plausible legal arguments, the results are worse than campus wokeism, because legal representation protects the rule of law and thus the liberty of us all.

*****

This article was published by Law & Liberty and is reproduced with permission.

Karrin Taylor Robson Calls on Ward to Resign as AZGOP Chair After High-Profile Losses thumbnail

Karrin Taylor Robson Calls on Ward to Resign as AZGOP Chair After High-Profile Losses

By Tom Joyce

(The Center Square) – A former Republican gubernatorial candidate has a request for the chair of the Arizona Republican Party: resign.

Former Arizona Board of Regents member Karrin Taylor Robson, who unsuccessfully sought the Republican Party’s nomination for governor this year, wants to see Ward resign.

Ward took the unusual step for a party leader to back a candidate –throwing her support behind Kari Lake – in the August primary.

Robson issued a statement on Tuesday morning saying she thinks the state party needs new leadership.

“When it comes to the state of our Arizona Republican Party, the facts are clear. I have seen enough,” Robson wrote. “Kelli Ward’s leadership of the Republican Party has been an unmitigated disaster. When she took office via a parliamentary trick at the 2019 statutory meeting, the state party coffers were flush. The previous Chairman had left over $400,000 in the bank, more than enough to cover operations and continue the important work of party building and voter registration.”

Robson is more than just a state politician and candidate for governor. She and her husband, real estate mogul Ed Robson, have been benefactors to conservative Republicans and causes in Arizona for years. She was granted the title “Honorary Commander” with Luke Air Force Base for her work in securing funding for the base and the Proving Grounds in Mesa.

“Ward had every opportunity to succeed,” Robson added. “And yet, she failed. And failed. And failed again.”

Robson noted that Arizona has swung to the left in recent years, supporting more Democratic candidates. For example, she notes that Arizona played a key role in President Donald Trump winning the White House in 2016.

However, as Robson notes, Joe Biden won the state in the 2020 presidential election, it now has two Democratic U.S. Senators, and just elected a Democratic governor in Katie Hobbs.

“While we celebrate the victories of strong conservative leaders like Maricopa County Attorney Rachel Mitchell, Congressman-elect Juan Ciscomani and Representative-elect Matt Gress, there is no denying the simple fact that our party is rudderless and leaderless,” Robson wrote.

Kelli Ward is passionate about her views, and claims to be a conservative,” Robson later added. “But she is not a leader. She is not a winner. And the party cannot afford two more years with her as Chairman. For the good of the party she claims to love, and for the future of the state that we all cherish, Kelli Ward must do the right thing.”

A press spokesperson for Ward could not be immediately reached for comment on Tuesday afternoon.

*****

This article was published by The Center Square – Arizona and is reproduced with permission.

Photo credit: Gage Skidmore

Real Wages Fell for the Nineteenth Month in a Row in October as Inflation Remained Entrenched thumbnail

Real Wages Fell for the Nineteenth Month in a Row in October as Inflation Remained Entrenched

By Ryan McMaken

The federal government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics released new price inflation data today, and according to the report, price inflation during the month decelerated slightly, but remained near 40-year highs. According to the BLS, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose 7.7 percent year over year during October, before seasonal adjustment. That’s the twentieth month in a row of inflation above the Fed’s arbitrary 2 percent inflation target, and it’s eleven months in a row of price inflation above 7 percent.

Month-over-month inflation rose as well, with the CPI rising 0.4 percent from September to October. October’s month-over-month growth also shows some acceleration in monthly price inflation growth. Month-to-month growth had been approximately zero in July and August.

October’s growth rate is down from June’s high of 9.1 percent, which was the highest price inflation rate since 1981. But October’s growth rate still keeps price inflation well above growth rates seen in any month during the 1990s, 2000s, or 2010s. October’s increase was the eighth-largest increase in forty years.

The ongoing price increases largely reflect price growth in food, energy, transportation, and especially shelter. In other words, the prices of essentials all saw big increases in October over the previous year.

For example, “food at home”—i.e., grocery bills—was up 12.4 percent in October over the previous year. Gasoline continued to be up, rising 17.5 percent year over year, while new vehicles were up 8.4 percent. Shelter registered one of the more mild increases, with a rise of 6.9 percent, according to the BLS.

The rise in shelter, however, was an increase in October over September when shelter prices rose “only” 6.6 percent, year over year. In October this year, shelter prices were up 6.9 percent year over year, and 0.7 percent, month over month. This was the largest month-over-month increase since March of 2006 and was the largest year-over-year increase since July of 1982. The CPI is finally starting to reflect the enormous surges in costs that many renters have been experiencing in recent years.

Meanwhile, so-called “core inflation”—CPI growth minus food and energy—has hardly shown any moderation at all. In October, year-over-year growth in core inflation was 6.2 percent. That’s down slightly from September’s growth rate of 6.6 percent, which was the highest growth rate recorded since August 1982. October’s year-over-year increase was the fifth largest recorded in 40 years.

The White House used this slight moderation in price inflation growth to crow about how the administration has somehow reduced inflation. According to the White House press release: “Today’s report shows that we are making progress on bringing inflation down, without giving up all of the progress we have made on economic growth and job creation,” he said. “My economic plan is showing results, and the American people can see that we are facing global economic challenges from a position of strength.”

In spite of the fact that month-over-month inflation actually increased, the administration once again selectively annualized the monthly inflation numbers in order to claim that the inflation rate is “2 percent” in spite of year-over-year growth that surpasses the Federal Reserve’s target rate by more than 5 percentage points.

Rather, it is a bit early, to say the least, to announce a victory over CPI inflation. Throughout 1975 and 1976, CPI growth decelerated rapidly, falling from 12 percent in December 1974 to 4 percent in December 1976. Yet, by early 1980, CPI inflation had risen to over 14 percent. At the time, Federal Reserve (Fed) chairman Arthur Burns had used the mid-decade decline in price inflation as an excuse to embrace more easy money. The Fed pushed down the target policy interest rate, and within 5 years, inflation had surged even higher.

Unfortunately, both the White House and Wall Street are both hoping for a replay of the Arthur Burns protocol of the mid-70s. Any small reprieve in inflation rates will be put forward as an excuse to once again have the Fed push down interest rates, and perhaps even ramp up quantitative easing. This will be pushed with the argument that the US is headed toward recession, and the country needs low interest rates and east money to ensure a “soft landing.” If inflation continues to ease even slightly, we can even expect mounting international pressure against the “strong dollar” which has been surging ahead of other currencies thanks to the unwillingness among other central banks to abandon their own easy-money policies.

In other words, now is a time of mounting danger that the central bank will return to the same failed policies of the last 25 years in which it turns to ever larger monetary stimulus in order to prevent recession-fueled deflation. The markets are even now banking that the Fed will take a more dovish turn now that CPI inflation has slightly fallen. For example, mortgage rates fell sharply on Thursday in the wake of the new inflation numbers’ release.

Yet, Americans continue to get poorer as price inflation continues to outpace growth in wages. In October, average hourly earnings grew by 4.86 percent. Given that price inflation surged by 7.7 percent, that real wage growth of about -2.9 percent. That’s the nineteenth month in a row during which real wages fell.

Meanwhile, the jobs data shows few signs of improving. In October, the number of employed persons in the US fell by 328,000, and remains below the February 2020 peak. Moreover, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, disposable income is lower now than it was before the covid panic, coming in at $15,130. That sum was $15,232 during February of 2020. Meanwhile, the personal savings rate in September fell to 3.1 percent. That’s the second-lowest level since 2007. Credit card debt, in contrast, reached new highs in September and is now well above its previous 2020 peak. More recent news is hardly better. Meta (Facebook) announced it is laying off 11,000 workers this week, adding to continuing job woes for the tech sector. Home construction and home sales activity is set to show big declines, which will lead to layoffs in real-estate related industries.

Price inflation is indeed likely slowing, but it is slowing as a result of a struggling economy. The White House may soon find it is celebrating much too soon.

*****

This article was published by Mises Institute and is reproduced with permission.

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PARENT TO SCHOOL BOARD: “Am I a Cat?”

By Editorial Staff

Editors’ Note: We urge all readers of The Prickly Pear to watch this short video presentation by a very astute and wise mother speaking truth to power at a school board meeting. It is tragic that this reality check  from a parent to a ‘woke’ school board actively destroying the reality and critical thinking of America’s children needs to occur but it is critical that it does. Parents must have a ‘life or death’ fighting mindset for the proper education (not indoctrination) of our children and the restoration of our nation. The ‘wokeness’ brought by teachers, their unions, and the ‘diversity’ idiocy of too many school board members must be stopped now.

A parent dressed in a cat costume at a school board meeting and “identified as a cat”. Her speech was clear, concise, and powerful. It also revealed the absurd notion that a grown man with mental health issues and enjoys dressing up in high heels and lip stick, has any business teaching our children in the classroom.

Woman demonstrates on how to handle a school board pic.twitter.com/w3xGGsVopg

— • ᗰISᕼKᗩ™ • (@kingojungle) November 16, 2022

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Maricopa Election Officials Launched PAC in 2021 to Stop MAGA Candidates

By Ari Hoffman

It has been revealed that embattled Arizona’s Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer and Supervisor Chairman Bill Gates in 2021 started a political action committee to stop MAGA candidates.

On November 17, 2021, Meg Cunningham from the Kansas City Beacon tweeted that Richer, “the Maricopa County recorder, is launching a PAC to support Rs running for non-federal AZ offices who ‘acknowledge the validity of the 2020 election and condemn the events of Jan. 6, 2021, as a terrible result of the lies told about the November election”.

Richer retweeted her saying, “Thanks to a few generous donors this is now launching. Join me if you care about traditional Republican ‘stuff’ (free people, free markets, rule of law), but also don’t believe in conspiracies about the 2020 election or that Jan 6 was a tourist event.”

The PAC called Pro Democracy Republicans of Arizona claims on their website that they are “fighting to keep our democratic institutions alive.”

The website is sparse on details aside from how to donate but does have a few sentences on their mission. “The Arizona election wasn’t stolen. We Republicans simply had a presidential candidate who lost, while we had many other candidates who won. It’s time we Republicans accept and acknowledge that fact.”

“Candidates come and go. But our democratic institutions are long-lasting, and peaceful transitions of power are a hallmark of the United States.  We should not abandon this history in favor of conspiracy theorists and demagoguery.”

“To that end, we are launching this PAC to support pro-democracy Arizona Republicans.”…..

*****

Continue reading this article at PM.

Photo credit: Matthew Casey/KJZZ

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Facebook Works to Deliver Us From Truth

By Thorsteinn Siglaugsson

This morning, a friend published a short post on Facebook, drawing attention to how it seemed to him the company was not even bothering any more to refer to the so-called “independent fact-checkers” to justify their censorship. He had re-posted a clip where Fox reporter Tucker Carlson discussed the negative effectiveness of the Covid-19 vaccines, referring to peer-reviewed studies. The clip is available here.

No reference to the twenty-something undergrads at the censorship agencies, just this label:

How on earth can peer-reviewed results constitute “misinformation”? The peer review process isn’t perfect, far from it, but after all it is the accepted standard. The first conclusion therefore is that the word “misinformation” does not refer to misinformation any more, it simply refers to any information the censor wants suppressed. The word has become meaningless.

The action, then, is suppression of a certain kind of information, but what about the reason? The reason for suppressing uncomfortable information about Covid-19 vaccines is that seeing this information may “make some people feel unsafe”. What does this mean precisely?

There are at least two possibilities, and here I’m talking only about those who believe in the narrative. The first is that people may feel unsafe seeing evidence that contradicts what they’ve been told by the authorities, the mainstream media and the social media giants; the “safe and effective” mantra. Watching Tucker Carlson’s review of the evidence might make people feel unsafe, uncertain, sceptical towards the propaganda relentlessly pushed towards them; this is what happens when you discover you’ve been deceived by someone you trusted. You feel unsafe for you don’t know who to trust any more.

Secondly, people may feel unsafe because their worldview is being threatened, while they still cling to it with all their might. They still believe the lies; they have no doubts, but discovering how some other people do not share their view of the world makes them frightened. Perhaps they’ve taken part in ostracising others, ridiculing them, wishing them harm, fearing for themselves if the truth comes out. Perhaps they suspect, deep down, that they are being deceived, but fear the consequences of the full realisation.

They may even have been so thoroughly brainwashed that they actually believe young and healthy people, an age-group with a demonstrated Covid mortality rate on par with the flu, will drop like flies in case they get infected, like this unfortunate young woman, willing to risk her life to protect her ill-advised belief.

Notice the wording in Facebook’s label. It does not say the alleged “misinformation” will make people unsafe, it says it will make them feel unsafe. When your view of the world is threatened you may certainly feel unsafe, but that doesn’t mean you are any less safe than you were before.

If someone points out to you the bridge you cross every day, and have been assured is well built and robust, is rusting away and may collapse any day, you may feel unsafe in the way you will doubt some other things you’ve been led to believe by the same people who assured you of the safety of the bridge, but avoiding that bridge will surely make you safer in the future.

If you find out that a medication you’ve been led to believe is safe and effective actually isn’t, you may feel unsafe in the same way. But avoiding that medication will surely make you safer in the future.

Having to think may make you feel unsafe, but it will not make you unsafe. A true belief is the result of thinking; to arrive at the truth we must have all the relevant information we can come by, evaluate it and in the end come to an informed conclusion. It may not hold forever, new evidence may present itself, we may have to reconsider our conclusion.

This is the essence of science, the prerequisite of progress, and also the prequisite of making the best and safest decisions for ourselves.

Facebook’s aim is not to make their users safe. Their aim is to make them feel they are safe, to prevent them from discovering challenging information, prevent them from thinking. They are the apostles of a new god, and his followers do not ask him to deliver them from evil, they ask him to deliver them from truth.

*****

This article was published by Brownstone Institute and is reproduced with permission.

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Big Brother Has Finally Arrived

By Bruce Bialosky

Absence of Malice is a 1981 Sydney Pollack film starring Paul Newman that I recently rewatched.  If you have not seen it — or have not recently — it is timeless. Newman’s character is accused of killing a union boss and he asserts he is innocent of the charge. Sally Field plays a reporter who writes a story “accusing him” of the crime. During one encounter, Newman says “I gotta know where that story came from. ‘Knowledgeable sources,’ you said. You write what they say and then you help them hide. You say you have a right to do that, and I got no right to know who they are.” Fields says “If they clear you. I’ll write about that too.” Newman replies. “What page?”

Matters have not changed much when it comes to the press except they now attribute most claims to “experts say” and we are supposed to drop to our knees and thank them. Yet this kind of behavior has spread throughout our society. You are aware of it – “it” is called cancel culture. People express something on social media, and they are harassed for being a bigot, etc., etc., etc. We now have advanced past cancel culture as proceedings have gotten even worse and this needs to end.

My friend Mike is someone I have known for about 30 years. There are good people in your life and then there are people you are thankful for having in your life. Mike is one of those quality people that is a rare gem in our culture today. We have worked together on mortgage loans for years. He is someone I trust totally with my personal matters and those of my clients. He always does the right thing in all aspects of his life.

A few years back Mike decided to leave his job at a mortgage bank to move to Wells Fargo. He thought the banks had put a stranglehold on jumbo loans and he was on the outside looking in. He needed to be on the inside. He made a very successful transition. Everything was peachy until one day.

He was on his cell phone when he received another call. He put the person on hold and went to the second call.  It quickly became clear what the person was calling about and Mike asked him, “Are you a headhunter?”  The caller avoided the question and went on. Mike reminded him he was on another call and asked him again about being a headhunter. After the third request to determine if the caller was a recruiter, the recruiter stated, in an offended tone of voice “I guess you have more important things to do than speak with me” and he hung up the phone on Mike.

After the call ended, Mike saw he had the telephone number of the caller and texted him his thoughts about the person’s behavior. He invoked a word that is akin to calling the person a less than worthy human. Mike did not use one of George Carlin’s seven dirty words. He was communicating in a text from his personal phone between two people.

The Caller complained to Mike’s boss. Mike’s boss spoke to him. The boss did not react to the Caller and let Mike know he had received the report. The vindictive Caller did not stop there, he went further in the organization. The next thing Mike knows he was fired. He was not given an opportunity to explain his actions.

This is a person who had a spotless record with the company. This is a person who had a private interaction. The person with whom he had the interaction was neither an employee, a customer nor a vendor of Wells Fargo. The communication did not appear in social media – not Facebook, Twitter, Instagram or TikTok. It was a private communication between one person and another. The Caller — who had been rude and invasive had now become — the Victim. 

The news was stunning, to say the least. Mike did not act as an employee of Wells Fargo.  He was a private individual. This is no longer just an issue of “cancel culture.” We could have anticipated this. Now if you are an employee of a company, your comments to a random store clerk can jeopardize your job. If you do not like the job your auto mechanic has done, and you give him a “piece of your mind,” you can lose your job.

It is unclear where all this ends. I can tell you that I am extremely thankful I started my own business years ago and am beholden to no one except the Beautiful Wife. We used to live in a free country where freedom of speech meant freedom of speech. Soon every word you say will be under a microscope and Big Business will be cowering to every perceived offense. 

Shame on you Wells Fargo.

*****

This article was published in Flash Report and is reprinted with permission from the author.

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Ciscomani, Schweikert Lock In Wins

By ADI Staff Reporter

A Republican Majority in the U.S. House of Representatives is nearly secured [now secured] by two Arizona victories, as Republicans David Schweikert and political newcomer Juan Ciscomani locked up wins in their races, according to vote counts updated on Monday.

Schweikert defeated Democrat Jevin Hodge in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District.

A six-term congressman, Schweikert is a member of the House Ways and Means Committee. He was the incumbent in Arizona’s 6th Congressional District, but was redistricted into the new, and much more competitive 1st District.

Ciscomani defeated former State Representative Kirsten Engel in CD 6.

An immigrant from Mexico, Ciscomani earned bipartisan praise for his work as director of Governor Doug Ducey’s Southern Arizona office, and as his Senior Advisor for Regional and International Affairs.

Representatives Paul Gosar (R-CD9), Andy Biggs (R-CD5), Debbie Lesko (R-CD8), Raul Grijalva (D-CD7) Greg Stanton (D-CD4), and Ruben Gallego (D-CD3) held their seats by wide margins.

At press time, Republicans had 214 confirmed seats, just 4 shy of the 218 required for control.

*****

This article was published by Arizona Daily Independent and is reproduced with permission.

TAKE ACTION

How Not to Vote in Arizona

Election Day is tomorrow – Tuesday, November 8th. The system for voting in Arizona is predominantly by mail-in ballots (around 80% of all ballots – 90% in Maricopa County).

If you have not submitted your mail-in ballot yet, DO NOT MAIL IT IN OR ‘DROP IT OFF’  ON TUESDAY AT YOUR POLLING STATION. It won’t be counted on Tuesday and may not be counted for many days or at all. 

If you have failed to ‘mail-in’ your ballot yet, surrender the ballot at the polling station on Tuesday, show your driver’s license and actually fill out a new ballot and vote in person. Your vote will be tabulated and counted for the evening announcement of election results.

Republican Leaders Have A Choice: Roll Back Early Voting And Mail-In Ballots Or Learn To Take Advantage Of Them thumbnail

Republican Leaders Have A Choice: Roll Back Early Voting And Mail-In Ballots Or Learn To Take Advantage Of Them

By Eddie Scarry

There isn’t just one reason for the midterm shortcomings but none are more important than the party’s neglect in adapting to our new jungle of an election process.

Republicans apparently learned very little from the 2020 election which turned voting and vote counting into a chaotic multi-week affair, all to the great advantage of Democrats.

After finding their party blown out of the water by early votes and mail-in ballots, both vastly expanded to accommodate the pandemic hysteria, elected GOP leaders seem to have thought to themselves, “Well, better luck next time!”

And here we are. In an election year that should have seen major gains for Republicans across the board, the party failed to take the Senate, could still (a week after Election Day) fail to secure the House [House now narrowly in GOP majority], and is now on life support for the governorship in Arizona [now lost]. There isn’t just one reason for the shortcomings but none are more important than the party’s neglect in adapting to our new jungle of an election process.

For the past two years, every Republican should have been either attempting to beat back the flood of “no excuse” mail-in ballots saturating swing states, or building up a party network that could adapt to it. There were some efforts to manage the mail-in voting problem in Arizona and Georgia but otherwise the party said its prayers and hoped for the best heading into the midterms.

We see how that strategy turned out. Democrats once again turned on the ignition and their army of activists began knocking on doors and dialing up their reliable voters to be sure that every single one of them knew the time to vote was now. Whether it was three weeks or a month before actual Election Day, it didn’t matter. Now. In response, Republicans donned a toothy smile and told their voters to keep Tuesday open. Wait in line— no matter how long it takes.

True, Republicans tend to be a lot more motivated than Democrats to vote in a non-presidential campaign year. They’re happy to drive to the booth and wait their turn. But the new reality is that elections are happening for weeks before the designated day for official in-person voting. That’s a lot of time for dedicated activists to call or visit the homes of their voters, no matter how unmotivated they are, and tell them that they don’t have to wait at all. They can cast their ballot right now. Want me to do it for you?!

Where is Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel on this? Where is National Republican Congressional Committee Chair Tom Emmer? Where is National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Rick Scott? They’re the ones responsible for leading on these things but they did nothing. Now they’re cheerfully making plans for their future leadership positions and fundraising operations.

If elected Republicans aren’t prepared to roll all of it back to the pre-pandemic way of doing things — I know, the media will call you racist, boo-hoo — then they’ll have to adapt and develop their own way of pushing their voters to cast ballots for weeks leading up to Election Day. That’s what Democrats are doing and it’s working.

*****

This article was published by The Federalist and is reproduced with permission.

TAKE ACTION

How Not to Vote in Arizona

Election Day is tomorrow – Tuesday, November 8th. The system for voting in Arizona is predominantly by mail-in ballots (around 80% of all ballots – 90% in Maricopa County).

If you have not submitted your mail-in ballot yet, DO NOT MAIL IT IN OR ‘DROP IT OFF’  ON TUESDAY AT YOUR POLLING STATION. It won’t be counted on Tuesday and may not be counted for many days or at all. 

If you have failed to ‘mail-in’ your ballot yet, surrender the ballot at the polling station on Tuesday, show your driver’s license and actually fill out a new ballot and vote in person. Your vote will be tabulated and counted for the evening announcement of election results.

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The GOP’s Problems Are Far Deeper Than One Election Cycle

By Bob Barr

As much trouble as Republican leaders in the Congress might have accepting the brutal fact of their candidates’ poor performances in last week’s mid-term elections, “fixing” the problem will take more than post-election tinkering.

Sure, there were major problems affecting the outcomes of last week’s results that were unique to this cycle – foremost among them, the quality of several Republican Senate candidates, and the barrage of early votes by Democrats – but there are far more consequential problems facing the GOP.

Even accounting for such problems as candidate quality, uneven funding, and questionable polling, the failure of the Republican Party to develop and communicate a coherent and positive message to the electorate stands as a major shortcoming now and moving forward. History shows it need not be that way.

In the 1994 mid-term election, the White House occupant was the widely unpopular President Bill Clinton. The House of Representatives had been under Democrat control  for 40 years. The stage was set for change. To take advantage of that momentum, then-Minority Whip (and future Speaker) Newt Gingrich broke with Republican tradition, and articulated a substantive, specific, and positive message to the electorate.

The 1994 Contract With America did not mention, much less attack Bill Clinton, though he was vulnerable to such charges. That would have been the politically easier course.

Instead, the Contract listed ten pieces of legislation the GOP promised to bring to the floor of the House for a vote within the first 100 days of being awarded a majority. Importantly, it did not overpromise. The widely publicized document promised only what we could guarantee. It worked.

By running on a program of specific, positive issues — each of which was in accord with basic, widely accepted principles of the Republican Party and a majority of voters – the field of GOP challengers broke the mold of generic, feel-good campaign talking points and presented to the voters an actual agenda. The voters responded by giving the Republicans their first House majority in four decades.

Contrast that experience with the less-than-inspirational Commitment to America presented publicly to the electorate in late September 2022 by the current Republican leadership. The document articulated “themes” that could provide an election agenda for the GOP in any year — 2022, 2024, 1994, or whenever. Such “evergreen” ideas have a place in a political Party’s agenda, perhaps as a convention platform, but as a vehicle with which to win a hard-fought mid-term election, unsurprisingly it proved virtually worthless.

The GOP’s Commitment reflects a problem beyond a missed opportunity. It suggests that the Party remains unsure of itself, has become overly dependent on polling rather than substance, and fails to understand the contemporary American electorate.

Poll after poll taken in the weeks leading to November 8th showed the electorate in a sour mood and a country led by a highly unpopular president. Apparently deciding that these polls provided a roadmap for victory, the GOP message became simply, “Biden and the Democrats are bad, so vote for us.” By implication, it deferred the details until after the voters would give Republicans majorities in both houses. Voters declined the invitation.

The results – a net loss of at least one Senate seat, and a far slimmer House majority than polling “promised” – speaks volumes about whether it is better to present voters with a positive, substantive plan or a campaign devoid of real substance but long on negativity.

Unfortunately, the GOP has been presented with this lesson in the not-distant past, but has failed to learn it.

Beyond the lack of a coherent, consistent message, the Party seems not to have yet grasped that the American electorate has changed dramatically over recent cycles. Gone are the days when we could count on an informed and morally cognizant majority of voters. Today, a majority of voters in all age groups, some by nearly 75%, consider abortion a “right” to be protected by law.  A majority of voters support the “right” to health care. At the same time, Americans are increasingly ignorant about our country and its history.

Threading that needle takes more than well-worn talking points.

The Republican Party had best do a far better job than in the recent past of presenting a coherent platform to voters if it hopes to achieve better results in 2024 and beyond.

*****

This article was published by The Daily Caller News Foundation and is reproduced with permission.

TAKE ACTION

How Not to Vote in Arizona

Election Day is tomorrow – Tuesday, November 8th. The system for voting in Arizona is predominantly by mail-in ballots (around 80% of all ballots – 90% in Maricopa County).

If you have not submitted your mail-in ballot yet, DO NOT MAIL IT IN OR ‘DROP IT OFF’  ON TUESDAY AT YOUR POLLING STATION. It won’t be counted on Tuesday and may not be counted for many days or at all. 

If you have failed to ‘mail-in’ your ballot yet, surrender the ballot at the polling station on Tuesday, show your driver’s license and actually fill out a new ballot and vote in person. Your vote will be tabulated and counted for the evening announcement of election results.

Don’t Blame Trump thumbnail

Don’t Blame Trump

By J.D. Vance

Something odd happened on Election Day. In the morning, we were confident of my victory in Ohio and cautiously optimistic about the rest of the country. By the time the polls closed, that optimism had turned to jubilance—and lobbying.

Every consultant and personality I encountered during my campaign claimed credit for their own faction. The victory was a testament to Mitch McConnell’s Senate Leadership Fund (SLF), one person told me. Another argued instead that SLF had actually bungled the race, and the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC)—chaired by Rick Scott—deserved the credit. (Full disclosure: both the NRSC and SLF helped my race in Ohio, for which I’m grateful.)

But then the results rolled in, and it was clear the outcome was far more disappointing than hoped. And every person claiming victory on Tuesday morning knew exactly who to blame on Tuesday night: Donald J. Trump.

Of course, no man is above criticism. But the quick turn from gobbling up credit to vomiting blame suggests there is very little analysis at work. So let’s try some of that.

Let’s start with an obvious caveat: there is a lot we don’t know. Precinct level data is still outstanding in most states, and exit polls are notoriously finicky. Votes are still being counted out west. We’re still ignorant about a lot. But any effort to blame Trump—or McConnell for that matter—ignores a major structural advantage for Democrats: money. Money is how candidates fund the all-important advertising that reaches swing voters, and it’s how candidates fund turnout operations. And in every marquee national race, Republicans got crushed financially.

The reason is ActBlue. ActBlue is the Democrats’ national fundraising platform, where 21 million individual donors shovel small donations into every marquee national race. ActBlue is why my opponent ran nonstop ads about how much he “agreed with Trump” during the summer. It is why John Fetterman was able to raise $75 million for his election.

Republican small dollar fundraising efforts are paltry by comparison, and Republican fundraising efforts suffer from high consultant and “list building” fees—where Republicans pay a lot to acquire small-dollar donors. This is why incumbents have such massive advantages: much of the small-dollar fundraising my own campaign did went to fundraising and list-building expenses. If and when I run for reelection, almost all of it will go directly to my campaign. Democrats don’t have this problem. They raise more money from more donors, with lower overhead.

Outside groups, like SLF, try to close this gap. But it is a losing proposition. Under federal elections law, campaigns pay way less for advertising than outside “Super PACs.” In some states, $10 million from an outside group is less efficient than $2 million spent by a campaign. So long as Republicans lose so badly in the small dollar fundraising game, Democrats will have a massive structural advantage.

Importantly, because ActBlue diverts resources to competitive races, this structural advantage can be magnified. Let’s look at how this played out specifically. At first blush, Ron DeSantis and Brian Kemp are similar figures: they both won close elections in 2018, and both cruised to reelection in 2022. They are both popular, effective governors from the South. But one won by over 20, and one by 8 (still an impressive margin). What explains this? Money. Look at the fundraising totals: Ron DeSantis outraised Charlie Crist about 7:1. Kemp was actually outraised, albeit barely, by Stacey Abrams. Money, of course, is not dispositive—Kemp won convincingly—but it has a major effect.

In both cases, incumbency provided a major advantage, in part because it’s easier to raise money when you’ve already won. But incumbency is also powerful in and of itself. Just look to Iowa, where incumbent governor Kim Reynolds cruised to reelection by a 20 point-margin, while newcomer Republican A.G. candidate Brenna Bird won by less than one point against twenty-eight-year incumbent Democrat Tom Miller.

This brings us to the Senate. In competitive states, every non-incumbent candidate was swamped with cash by national Democrats. This is true for Trump-aligned candidates (like me), anti-Trump candidates (like Joe O’Dea in Colorado), and those who straddled both camps. The house tells a similar story. Every person blaming Donald Trump, or bad candidates endorsed by Trump, ought to show a single national marquee race where a non-incumbent beat a well-funded opponent. The few exceptions—New York among them—don’t tell an easy anti-Trump story.

In Ohio, for example, Republican candidates ran against extremely well-funded Democrat opposition. Some of them were MAGA. Some establishment. Almost all of them lost. The only exception was Max Miller in Northeast Ohio, one of Trump’s early endorsements.

There is a related structural problem, which is that higher propensity voters (suburban whites, especially) are just more and more Democratic. Meanwhile, a lot of the Trump base just doesn’t turn out in midterm elections. Again, this is not unique to Trump: these voters have always had substandard turnout numbers. But 20 years ago, when most of them voted for Democrats, that meant Republicans had a structural advantage in midterms. Now, the shoe is on the other foot. This problem is exacerbated by Democrats’ strong advantages in states that have expanded vote by mail.

In the short term, as illustrated last week, those advantages serve as a reminder of the need for voting reform in this country, modeled on success in states like Ohio at running clean, fair elections: establishing fair but appropriately narrow windows to return ballots; implementing signature verification; conducting all pre-election work necessary to facilitate rapid tabulation of early votes when polls close; and implementing national photo ID requirements to ensure elections are secure.

In the long term, the way to solve this is to build a turnout machine, not gripe at the former president. But building a turnout machine without organized labor and amid declining church attendance is no small thing. Our party has one major asset, contra conventional wisdom, to rally these voters: President Donald Trump. Now, more than ever, our party needs President Trump’s leadership to turn these voters out and suffers for his absence from the stage.

The point is not that Trump is perfect. I personally would have preferred an endorsement of Lou Barletta over Mastriano in the Pennsylvania governor’s race, for example. But any effort to pin blame on Trump, and not on money and turnout, isn’t just wrong. It distracts from the actual issues we need to solve as a party over the long term. Indeed, one of the biggest changes I would like to see from Trump’s political organization—whether he runs for president or not—is to use their incredible small dollar fundraising machine for Trump-aligned candidates, which it appears he has begun doing to assist Herschel Walker in his Senate runoff.

Blaming Trump isn’t just wrong on the facts, it is counterproductive. Any autopsy of Republican underperformance ought to focus on how to close the national money gap, and how to turn out less engaged Republicans during midterm elections. These are the problems we have, and rather than blaming everyone else, it’s time for party leaders to admit we have these problems and work to solve them.

*****

This article was published by The American Conservative and is reproduced with permission.

TAKE ACTION

How Not to Vote in Arizona

Election Day is tomorrow – Tuesday, November 8th. The system for voting in Arizona is predominantly by mail-in ballots (around 80% of all ballots – 90% in Maricopa County).

If you have not submitted your mail-in ballot yet, DO NOT MAIL IT IN OR ‘DROP IT OFF’  ON TUESDAY AT YOUR POLLING STATION. It won’t be counted on Tuesday and may not be counted for many days or at all. 

If you have failed to ‘mail-in’ your ballot yet, surrender the ballot at the polling station on Tuesday, show your driver’s license and actually fill out a new ballot and vote in person. Your vote will be tabulated and counted for the evening announcement of election results.

Conservative Senators Defy McConnell, Want to Delay GOP Leadership Elections thumbnail

Conservative Senators Defy McConnell, Want to Delay GOP Leadership Elections

By Robert Bluey

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., is facing a rebellion in his own conference just days after Republicans underperformed in key races across the country.

A growing number of conservative senators want the GOP leadership elections postponed until after the December runoff in Georgia, where Republican Herschel Walker is facing Democrat Sen. Raphael Warnock after neither won a majority on Election Day.

Republican leaders typically hold internal party elections quickly after Election Day to prevent conservatives from organizing opposition—and Conference Chairman John Barrasso, R-Wyo., affirmed Friday that Senate Republicans would do the same again this year. But with frustration already building before Tuesday’s disappointing results, there’s a desire among some to delay the vote.

“It makes no sense for Senate to have leadership elections before GA runoff,” Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, wrote on Twitter. “We don’t yet know whether we’ll have a majority & Herschel Walker deserves a say in our leadership. Critically, we need to hear a specific plan for the next 2 yrs from any candidate for leadership.”

“The Senate GOP leadership vote next week should be postponed,” Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., said earlier Friday on Twitter. “First we need to make sure that those who want to lead us are genuinely committed to fighting for the priorities & values of the working Americans (of every background) who gave us big wins in states like Florida.”

Sen. Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo., added her support.

In addition, Politico reported Friday that three GOP senators are circulating a letter to their colleagues requesting a delay. The effort is being led by Sens. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., Mike Lee, R-Utah, and Rick Scott, R-Fla.

“We are all disappointed that a Red Wave failed to materialize, and there are multiple reasons it did not,” the senators wrote. “We need to have serious discussions within our conference as to why and what we can do to improve our chances in 2024.”

Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., stated his opposition to McConnell earlier this week. Sen.-elect Eric Schmitt, R-Mo., vowed to oppose McConnell’s re-election as Senate GOP leader in July.

“I’m not sure if any other senator will run or not. Nobody’s indicated they would. But my view is that we need new leadership in that position,” Hawley said Monday.

In July, Schmitt floated two other possible leaders: Sens. Cruz or Lee. “Mitch McConnell hasn’t endorsed me and I don’t endorse him for leadership,” Schmitt said at the time.

Asked this week if he remains opposed to McConnell, Schmitt said, “I said what I said, and I stand by those comments.”

Seeking to quell the uprising, Barrasso assured his colleagues that next week’s Republican conference meeting would afford every senator “a chance to be heard,” according to a letter obtained by Politico.

“After presentations from candidates, and there is every opportunity to address questions from every member, we will complete leadership elections,” Barrasso wrote.

McConnell was first elected Senate minority leader in November 2006 after previously serving as GOP whip. He is the longest-serving Republican leader ever—spanning four presidents and stints in the Senate minority and majority.

Scott, who leads the National Republican Senatorial Committee, was asked Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press” about potentially challenging McConnell. At the time and in the days that followed, Scott refused to rule out the idea.

McConnell’s former chief of staff, Josh Holmes, attacked Scott for even considering a leadership challenge.

“If this is true, most of our voters will be very disappointed to learn that while they were focused on winning elections, their campaign chairman was plotting an ill-fated career advancement,” Holmes told Politico.

Throughout the campaign, Scott urged Republicans to put forward a positive agenda for America and released his own 12-point plan. McConnell instead preferred to focus on President Joe Biden’s failures.

When asked about Scott’s plan in March, McConnell said: “If we’re fortunate enough to have the majority next year, I’ll be the majority leader. I’ll decide in consultation with my members what to put on the floor.”

Heritage Foundation President Kevin Roberts, in a commentary for Fox News published Friday, criticized Republican leaders for failing to offer a policy agenda.

“Scott’s agenda was detailed, comprehensive, courageous, and almost unanimously attacked by Senate Republican leaders,” Roberts wrote. “Tellingly, his colleagues did not take issue with this or that specific policy in his agenda. They slammed Scott for offering a plan at all. This is how Washington works today. Leaders hide bills from members; members hide their priorities from their constituents; candidates hide their agendas from voters.”

Roberts said the one key takeaway from Election Day is that “the American people want new leadership in Washington, D.C.”

In addition to McConnell, Barrasso, and Scott, the current Senate GOP leadership team includes Whip John Thune, R-S.D., Policy Chairman Roy Blunt, R-Mo. (who is retiring), and Conference Vice Chairman Joni Ernst, R-Iowa.

*****

This article was published by The Daily Signal and is reproduced with permission.

TAKE ACTION

How Not to Vote in Arizona

Election Day is tomorrow – Tuesday, November 8th. The system for voting in Arizona is predominantly by mail-in ballots (around 80% of all ballots – 90% in Maricopa County).

If you have not submitted your mail-in ballot yet, DO NOT MAIL IT IN OR ‘DROP IT OFF’  ON TUESDAY AT YOUR POLLING STATION. It won’t be counted on Tuesday and may not be counted for many days or at all. 

If you have failed to ‘mail-in’ your ballot yet, surrender the ballot at the polling station on Tuesday, show your driver’s license and actually fill out a new ballot and vote in person. Your vote will be tabulated and counted for the evening announcement of election results.

4 Realities Conservatives Must Swallow In The Wake Of The 2022 Midterms thumbnail

4 Realities Conservatives Must Swallow In The Wake Of The 2022 Midterms

By Peter Burfeind

The electorate has crossed a point of no return, shattering previous assumptions conservatives had baked in.

Unlike the left, the stunning under-performance of Republicans on Tuesday should not be an opportunity for screaming at the cosmos. It’s a reality check, and the sooner we adapt to reality, the sooner we can be optimistic about the future.

So what are the realities conservatives must face based on Tuesday’s shock? I see four things.

Donald Trump Has Jumped the Shark

Donald Trump was a great president who did conventional Republican things conservatives dreamed about for decades. He’s absolutely responsible for 10,000 fewer babies being aborted due to his conservative appointments to the Supreme Court and their role in overturning Roe v. Wade. He kept us out of war. He kept Russia at bay. He brought up Chinese aggression as an issue. He kept North Korea silent. He fixed NAFTA. I could go on.

But he will never win the presidency again, and the candidates he endorses do not do well. Given the fundamentals of this election cycle, the open seats in Pennsylvania, Georgia, New Hampshire, Arizona, and Nevada should have been easy wins. Instead, they were weighed down by the Trump name and the stupid Jan. 6 incident that everyone wants to forget about except Donald Trump and those who leverage his obsession with it into a leftist passion.

Trump’s recent putdowns of Gov. Ron DeSantis, dubbing him “DeSanctimonious” and telling him to back off a presidential run, were the last straw for me and many conservatives. We need to be done with him.

Two years ago, I wrote an article in these pages comparing Trump’s 2020 loss to Obi-Wan Kenobi’s death, arguing his loss will make his movement more powerful than anyone can possibly imagine. I still believe that. He’s brought new constituencies into the GOP. But a key implicit point of that argument is, Obi-Wan Kenobi died. He didn’t get in the way of Luke Skywalker’s (ahem, DeSantis’s, ahem!) rise.

‘Democrat’ Is Shorthand for ‘I Gotta Get Mine!’

The electorate has crossed a point of no return, shattering previous assumptions. Everyone predicted the fundamentals of the economy would determine harsh losses for Democrats. Yet here we are. A frighteningly close majority of voters don’t care how massive government spending combined with strangling our oil production has led to economic decline.

Clearly, a sizeable part of the electorate has baked into it a transactional relationship with the Democrat brand that gives the party a reliable handicap regardless of what’s happening in the real world. “Democrat” is now shorthand for livelihood security, essentially for one’s career in the bureaucracy or one’s government entitlements.

The Republican brand is more about principles and ideas that in the long run perform better in the aggregate. This is a hard sell among an electorate, especially among younger voters, who have not been trained to think critically about second- and third-order effects, for instance, with Biden’s student loan bailout program.

Republicans will not do well simply being against what Democrats are for. They will need to figure out a way to frame their goals in big-time, tangible ways that have a direct effect on voters and overwhelm their natural adherence to the government party.

Examples of this would be an overhaul of the public education system to a system of vouchers, constitutional amendments clarifying deployment of the armed forces, or policy positions on climate change based not on stopping it, but adapting to it through free-market forces, working with and not against the fossil fuel industry.

The GOP Must Adapt to Snowflake America

The Arizona governor race should have been an easy win for the GOP. I loved Kari Lake’s spunky, confident, in-your-face style, but she got beat by a timid snowflake who was afraid to debate her and came off as kind of mousy.

However, to many Arizona voters, Lake seems grating while something appeals to them in Hobbs. The “own the libs” tone that so many conservatives expect and love probably doesn’t work in the suburbs or college towns.

I remember a few years back, conservatives had a sporting time with “pajama boy,” the pajama-wearing millennial Obama used to market the Affordable Care Act. I thought at the time, “Who on earth is this marketing ploy appealing to?” I was troubled by voices in the conservative wilderness crying out, “Pajama boy is the future. Ignore him to your peril.”

They are right. The “pajama boy” ethos is a symptom of the new “safetyism” that’s enabled the “coddling of America.” A Hobbs “literally shaking” from a mean Lake trying to own her resonates with that safety-seeking swath of the electorate.

Adjusting to that reality doesn’t mean giving up the rugged individualism, rough-and-tumble ethos marking conservativism, but it does mean perhaps framing our goals differently. Aren’t conservatives ultimately about being the watchdogs of culture, protecting (not scaring off) the little lambs?

GOP Must Adapt to How Elections Are Run

Early voting and voting by mail completely changed how elections are run. The exciting news about polls moving favorably toward the GOP didn’t matter if much of the electorate had already voted. Democrats did not seem interested in late-October debates or even winning the argument; what do they know that we don’t know?

What they know is that elections are not about “winning votes” or even “getting out to vote” so much as they are about gathering ballots. (Read this very carefully.)

The Democrats have breached the chasm between “registered voter” and “likely voter.” That chasm used to favor the GOP. It suggested there was a part of the liberal caucus who would only vote Democratic if they had the energy to get to a voting booth. That “if” was always a big “if.”   That’s one reason why midterm elections were seasons of GOP success.

No more. Through mail-in voting and early voting, the Democrats can connect an awful lot of bodies to an awful lot of “D”-marked ballots, demanding little energy at all to do so. They understand that this is where elections are won.

Conservatives can scream at the cosmos all they want about this new reality. It’s not going away. Adapt or die. Start building an army of volunteers to guide the hands of senile rural folk, shut-ins, and off-the-radar types to the “R” box, en masse.

Conservatives Can Still Be Optimistic

There are solutions to every one of these realities, so while disappointed, I’m not as despairing as many others are. Conservatives should not be despairing. Why?  Because (1) politics is not our religion, so we’ve got other sources of optimism in our families, churches, and jobs; and (2) Horace’s dictum endures — you can chase out nature with a pitchfork, but it will always come running back.

The fundamentals of reality remain in play. As long as leftism means a compulsion toward magical thinking on the laws of nature, we will always have an ally in the natural order. But far be it from conservatives to fall for magical thinking about their future.

*****

This article was published by The Federalist and is reproduced with permission.

TAKE ACTION

How Not to Vote in Arizona

Election Day is tomorrow – Tuesday, November 8th. The system for voting in Arizona is predominantly by mail-in ballots (around 80% of all ballots – 90% in Maricopa County).

If you have not submitted your mail-in ballot yet, DO NOT MAIL IT IN OR ‘DROP IT OFF’  ON TUESDAY AT YOUR POLLING STATION. It won’t be counted on Tuesday and may not be counted for many days or at all. 

If you have failed to ‘mail-in’ your ballot yet, surrender the ballot at the polling station on Tuesday, show your driver’s license and actually fill out a new ballot and vote in person. Your vote will be tabulated and counted for the evening announcement of election results.

Don’t Crash My Party thumbnail

Don’t Crash My Party

By Conservative Guy

Today’s Republican Party demonstrates the problem of putting new wine into old bottles.

Those who occupy the commanding heights of established authority are usually boring personalities by necessity, institutional design, and supporting culture. Mediocrity is the rule for the gatekeepers of established power.

Think of onetime RNC chairman Reince Priebus—with his Pee Wee Herman good looks, wit, and charm—fielding candidates like Mitt Romney and Jeb Bush, trying to appeal to just enough rank-and-file Republicans in the primary and then general election voters in November to win.

My position on the idea animating this symposium is the following: it’s to be expected that the RNC, like any established, institutional political player, will try to exclude folks whom it doesn’t like and who threaten its enduring interests. To do so is to fulfill its cornerstone, self-preservative function. It’s even a term of political science: “The Law of Conservative Exclusion.” (Pure Theory of Politics, Bertrand De Jouvenel, Part IV, Chapter 2, Liberty Fund Press.)

The basic idea is that political entrepreneurs—dynamic personalities with a public design and purpose—give rise to movements that eventually transform into established institutions, eventually to be guided by folks like Reince Priebus. A modern party competing at all levels of government to run something as complex and powerful as the United States of America needs binders full of predictable, qualified, company men and women. The type of candidate who can satisfy the diverse and often warring internal interests that rage within a major political party is very rarely an exciting personality.

Think of the retail political skill set required to found the Republican Party itself. It’s populist to the core. It takes a pretty dynamic and dangerous, “Here I stand and can do no other” type to found a new party, or a social or economic power. Men like Abraham Lincoln, Samuel Gompers, Martin Luther King, and Steve Jobs all hailed from the tribe of disrupters—better to meet them in history books than to have to deal with them when they manifest themselves in the flesh.

Such characters are always resisted by the establishment. And the disrupters understand this. They know who they are. They expect those being overturned to fight for their status. Most disrupters fail. The establishment wins more then it loses. Those few who do succeed, and help build or rebuild institutions in their name, are always outnumbered by lesser types like Mitt Romney, Al Sharpton, and Tim Cook. This is a datum of politics.

There is a tragedy in the Law of Conservative Exclusion. It can be too successful in keeping out the new blood—the dynamism—that it requires to fulfill its charge of maintaining institutional continuity and vitality in the face of change.

The Kristol family offers an instructive example of how movements are born, and, when poorly managed, die. Irving Kristol was an intellectual entrepreneur who created first a neo-conservative persuasion and then a movement. Bill, his son, was not a creator like his father but a mandarin. His judgment was consistently poor up until Donald Trump forced himself upon the Republican Party, at which point things went terribly for Bill. He did everything in his power to deny Trump the Republican nomination, and, when beaten, shifted allegiance and made common cause with Democrats to purge Trump and his MAGA ilk. Sadly, the neoconservatives of days gone by are now neoliberals. There exists no circumstance under which they will be allowed to return to the Republican fold, let alone to leadership.

Trump is presently knee-deep in trench warfare to remake the Republican Party into a populist party—an effort being resisted internally, though to little public note. After Trump won the White House, many of the establishment folks who opposed his hostile takeover became more open to the Republican populism. Trump saw cracks in the Democratic Party’s working-class blue wall and gave a Republican voice to their concerns with his candidacy, and later with his presidency and policies. He brought new life into the Republican Party—a popular energy and rootedness— that could transform it into a genuine rival to the Our Democracy Party and its progressive arc-of-history claim.

My sense is that Ronna Romney McDaniel sees the enduring value of opening the Republican Party’s vision to more populist expressions. She is a respectful niece of a Republican aristocratic family, but at the same time she seems to understand that the future of the Republican Party is in becoming more populist.

My two cents on the midterms.

If you want to know what happened on a candidate level, follow the money. We are all talking about “candidate quality” as the reason behind the trickle instead of the wave. But it’s hard to accept the candidate-quality mantra, particularly when the only example that we can hang on is Dr. Oz. Fact: the Democrats got behind John Fetterman and outspent Oz, and won. Fetterman was certainly not a better candidate than Oz. Yes, Oz was a carpet bagger. In contrast, Fetterman is a Carhartt bagger—a trustafarian with a series of numbers on his arms that I believe is a running IOU list to his rich daddy. When a renowned heart surgeon and TV doctor does not win against a disabled stroke victim, it’s about money and organization, not candidate quality.

I’d like to see a number on how much Republicans spent compared to the Democrats on the races that mattered. Mitch McConnell managed his chip count as you would expect, spending just enough to keep the narrative going on Donald Trump’s inability as party leader and stock picker of talent, and sowing a post-midterm division between Trump and Ron DeSantis. And, in Mitch’s defense, if Trump’s picks had won, he would be out of a job.

Trump lacked the discipline to put his own sizable war chest where his mind, reputation, and populist future were on the line. It appears that Trump doesn’t know what he is up against, which does not inspire confidence.

If the Republican Party allows itself to be outspent in Georgia for the December 6 run-off, then the message is clear: its leadership has its own priorities, and needs suffer some conservative exclusion at the top. The Left wins because it networks; the Right loses because it competes against itself. Unless that changes and shows itself in Georgia, the Republican Party deserves to go the way of the Whig Party, and to be replaced by something more deserving of the American people and this House Divided Moment. But it’s easier to reform than replace.

*****

This article was published by The American Mind and is reproduced with permission.

TAKE ACTION

How Not to Vote in Arizona

Election Day is tomorrow – Tuesday, November 8th. The system for voting in Arizona is predominantly by mail-in ballots (around 80% of all ballots – 90% in Maricopa County).

If you have not submitted your mail-in ballot yet, DO NOT MAIL IT IN OR ‘DROP IT OFF’  ON TUESDAY AT YOUR POLLING STATION. It won’t be counted on Tuesday and may not be counted for many days or at all. 

If you have failed to ‘mail-in’ your ballot yet, surrender the ballot at the polling station on Tuesday, show your driver’s license and actually fill out a new ballot and vote in person. Your vote will be tabulated and counted for the evening announcement of election results.

$66 Billion In, It’s Clear The Realists Were Right About Ukraine thumbnail

$66 Billion In, It’s Clear The Realists Were Right About Ukraine

By Sumantra Maitra

U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has been speaking with high-level Russian officials “to guard against the risk of escalation and keep communications channels open, and not to discuss a settlement of the war in Ukraine,” The Wall Street Journal reports, citing anonymous sources.

It appears the Biden administration has been privately pushing Ukraine to come to the negotiation table, while, bafflingly, providing Ukraine with whatever it wants. On-book U.S. spending on Ukraine’s war is so far about $66.3 billion, the largest foreign government contribution to the war by far.

The Washington Post adds, also citing anonymous sources, that the Biden administration is making:

a calculated attempt to ensure the government in Kyiv maintains the support of other nations facing constituencies wary of fueling a war for many years to come. The discussions illustrate how complex the Biden administration’s position on Ukraine has become, as U.S. officials publicly vow to support Kyiv with massive sums of aid ‘for as long as it takes’ while hoping for a resolution to the conflict that over the past eight months has taken a punishing toll on the world economy and triggered fears of nuclear war.

Consider the stupidity of this strategy. Everyone with an IQ greater than an absent-minded jellyfish knows Ukraine as an independent actor and state wouldn’t even exist without American politicians granting it an open checkbook even during crippling inflation and functionally open borders. But America has to privately beg Ukraine because Washington, D.C., is trapped by its own grandiose rhetoric and foolish decision to give Ukraine billions and advanced weapons. The tail now wags the dog.

No hegemon in human history had to face this ideological trap, not even the Soviet Union with Fidel Castro. Just like Zelensky and his supporters in D.C. today, Castro would have readily dragged Moscow and the world into a nuclear war in 1962. But Moscow had the leash of its satellites, including Cuba, in their hands. America had too, during the Cold War. But the post-Cold War U.S. establishment is not manned by nationalists or realists, and to them, the survival of an “order” is more important than targeted U.S. interests.

That gives rise to scenarios such as Europeans demanding the United States share plans with them when the United States practically dwarves them in aid in a war in their backyard. It’s not just rhetoric but the provision of massive amounts of U.S. cash and weapons, without which the war would have long been over regardless of how well the Ukrainians fought.

Source: Kiel Institute for the World Economy

Worse, the American government under President Biden spinelessly accepts such sanctimony from foreign governments, ignoring that smaller powers are fanatical about their own survival. The history of the world is lit with examples of smaller states dragging great powers to catastrophic, civilization-ending wars.There’s one question left unanswered. Why were the realist Republicans called Putinists and fascists when they argued for the same thing the Biden administration is currently doing?

Elon Musk was recently called a Russian agent on Twitter for arguing for peace negotiations, as were David Sacks and Dan Caldwell. The Republicans who voted against further U.S. spending on Ukraine or against the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization are still regularly derided as extremists for their bold stand with the majority of Americans who don’t want to shoulder the overwhelming burden of a failed internationalism.In a paper during the early days of the war, I argued we should talk to Russia and reach equilibrium quickly because the asymmetry of interest over Ukraine is stark. Moscow has much more interest in her own backyard than America does. Others argued in Politico that our rhetoric and provision of materiel risks trapping us into an escalatory spiral, a sentiment shared in Foreign Affairs.

“Without a strong United States, there won’t be peace,” explained Hungarian Minister of Justice Judit Varga in a recent conversation we had. “It is only Russia and the United States who could hammer out a solution for the long term. The Democrat [Congressional Progressive Caucus] letter didn’t work out, and it was expected they won’t be for peace. If we had President Trump and Angela Merkel, the war wouldn’t have happened or would have been a localized conflict.”

But that is not possible because the media and academia’s “opinion hegemony” is determined to push a leftist social revolution, even at the cost of a great-power war. This is the key issue.

Those who seek to fight fascism in Europe are the same ones who claim Republicans who opposed uncontrolled aid to Ukraine and instead want to fund the southern border are fascists. To this ideological echo chamber, there is no difference between Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley, Musk, Putin, and Hungarian President Viktor Orban. It is one whole global crusade.

A nation-building process that started in Iraq and Libya is headed to Ukraine and will eventually head home. Anyone who opposes this leftist crusade will be termed enemies of progress and fascists.

*****

This article was published by The Federalist and is reproduced with permission.

TAKE ACTION

How Not to Vote in Arizona

Election Day is tomorrow – Tuesday, November 8th. The system for voting in Arizona is predominantly by mail-in ballots (around 80% of all ballots – 90% in Maricopa County).

If you have not submitted your mail-in ballot yet, DO NOT MAIL IT IN OR ‘DROP IT OFF’  ON TUESDAY AT YOUR POLLING STATION. It won’t be counted on Tuesday and may not be counted for many days or at all. 

If you have failed to ‘mail-in’ your ballot yet, surrender the ballot at the polling station on Tuesday, show your driver’s license and actually fill out a new ballot and vote in person. Your vote will be tabulated and counted for the evening announcement of election results.